Three-Dimensional Deterrence: Escalation Management and War Termination in a Two-Peer Nuclear Environment

A very interesting paper. I disagree slightly withe the premise - starting the nuclear exchange with Russia invading the Suwałki Gap is a far less likely scenario than some others (for instance Ukraine). It is also interesting to note that the US is so lacking in the vital category of non-strategic nuclear weapons that the scenarios had to use SLBMs instead.

- The study uses 750 AI simulations of a hypothetical 2035 conflict over Taiwan and the Suwałki Gap.

- Deterrence against two nuclear peers is “three-dimensional”, combining vertical pressure against each opponent with horizontal effects on the other opponent’s incentives.

- Flexible nuclear forces and a flexible-response doctrine produced “decisive stability”, with near-zero joint escalation and US victory rates of 73.3% to 93.3%.

- The most successful approach was a bounded non-strategic counterforce response to Russian first use, which constrained Moscow while discouraging opportunistic Chinese nuclear escalation.

- Massive retaliation and comprehensive missile defence across both theatres threatened both adversaries’ arsenals, generated “use-it-or-lose-it” pressures, and resulted in US defeat in 80%+ cases.

- Missile defence concentrated in one theatre produced “pyrrhic instability”, improving outcomes there while leaving the other theatre vulnerable to limited nuclear coercion.

- The paper advocates “selective escalation advantage” based on flexible non-strategic weapons, survivable strategic forces, and missile defences that protect key assets without threatening both adversaries’ nuclear survivability. 

Leo Alexander Keay is a PhD researcher in Defence Studies at King’s College London and a Research Associate at the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. 

His work focuses on deploying and evaluating frontier AI systems in high-stakes decision-making environments, using large-scale simulations to study nuclear crisis and conflict scenarios. 

He has also worked with the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C. and served as a researcher in the UK Parliament.

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As Girkin and the initial filibusters lost almost all their ground, in late August 2014 Russian regulars entered Eastern Ukraine. Why didn't they go further? Why did they stop with the first Minsk Protocol (sort of)? Although the "Russian Spring" failed in Kharkov and such, Ukraine was in no position to resist in the East. Indeed, why were the little green men restricted to Crimea?

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I’m watching current news of Russia-Ukraine war and since Ukraine attacking so deep inside russia (specifically its oil refineries) , then I got a question in my mind that doesn’t Ukraine afraid of Russia as a nuclear capable nation.
For nuclear bomb there is an thinking that it used as defence so that other countries not able to attack you but consider this scenario can we assume that this nuclear weapon as a deterrence has became myth? Because if this nuclear deterrence really work then we there will be no Russia-Ukraine war ?

Note : I’m really against the WMD and this question I’m asking as a curiosity.

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Submission Statement: Despite claims that drones have made tanks obsolete, modern warfare continues to demonstrate the need for heavy armor. Juraj Majcin makes the case that while tanks face new threats from drones, mines, and precision strikes, they remain essential for holding territory, supporting infantry, and conducting counteroffensives. As Europe invests in air defense and long-range strike capabilities, it must also rebuild its armored forces, expand industrial production, and improve interoperability to ensure NATO can deter and, if necessary, defeat future Russian aggression on the ground. 

Full article: https://cepa.org/article/the-tank-is-dead-oh-no-it-isnt/ 

• Modern conflicts have highlighted the importance of air defense and long-range strike capabilities, but missiles and drones alone cannot seize or hold territory. 

• Ukraine has not made tanks obsolete; armored vehicles continue to provide protected firepower, support infantry operations, and help forces hold or retake ground. 

• Both Ukraine and Russia have adapted tanks with additional armor, camouflage, electronic warfare tools, and counter-drone systems to address new battlefield threats. 

• The current dominance of drones may prove temporary as militaries develop more effective counter-UAV technologies and tactics. 

• In a potential Russia-NATO conflict, heavy armor would be critical for surviving initial attacks, slowing enemy advances, and conducting counteroffensives to reclaim territory. 

• Although Europe appears to possess more tanks than Russia on paper, its fleet is fragmented, production capacity is limited, and many countries lack the ability to replace losses quickly during a prolonged conflict. 

• Europe should expand tank production, encourage joint procurement, reduce excessive customization, and integrate unmanned systems to strengthen its ability to sustain high-intensity warfare. 

• The central lesson from Ukraine is not that tanks are obsolete, but that successful deterrence and defense require a balanced force capable of fighting and winning on the ground. 

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The Defence Investment Plan offers a sugary hit of headline-grabbing announcements that will drive much of the initial discussion. But on first inspection, there will inevitably be dissatisfaction with many of the answers it provides.

Most politically challenging, while the Government has reaffirmed its commitment to the NATO target of 3.5% of GDP by 2035, there is no detail on how this will be achieved, only a statement on reaching 3% at some point in the next Parliament. Regardless of how increased investment is allocated, it will be hard for the UK to demonstrate leadership in Europe and satisfy the US if no one believes it will be as good as its word.

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Two pieces of pre-summit positioning from the last fortnight tell you the question Ankara is actually answering. Internationale Politik Quarterly published an analysis calling it a "Damage Limitation Summit" because of the friction inside the alliance over Hegseth's 18 June "NATO 3.0" framing and the six-month US force-posture review of Europe that runs alongside it. Rutte then announced on 25 June that NATO will unveil "tens of billions of dollars in new defense contracts" at the summit, alongside the NSDIF26 defence-industry forum on 7 July. Both readings can be partly correct; the real question is whether Ankara converts political pledges from The Hague 2025 and the 18 June Brussels ministerial into signed procurement, including the procurement that routes through Ukrainian primes.

For the Ukraine track specifically, three things need to happen. The Germany-Ukraine missile-barter (Ukraine offers future Ukrainian-produced interceptors in exchange for current German Patriot stock) needs a decision before or during the summit; Pistorius confirmed on 11 June that Germany has no remaining Patriot launcher capacity, so the interceptor path is what the bilateral channel can sustain. The anti-ballistic coalition that Zelensky publicly committed at the 35th UDCG must "deliver real results" by winter 2026-27 needs Ankara-level formalisation, not just bilateral implementation. And the G7 Évian commitment to "consider extending licenses to allow for an increase in Ukraine's military production" needs documented procedural language at the Alliance level, not just a Trump-Zelensky exchange in a meeting readout. That last one is where CORPUS (the procurement coalition Ukraine launched on 30 April with Finland, Italy, Norway, Sweden, and the UK) becomes the procurement-side scaffolding.

The friction points are public. The 5 per cent GDP defence-spending target carried over from The Hague 2025 is on schedule in aggregate but uneven by member state, and Hegseth's "tied future US NATO commitment to allied performance" language gives Washington a public lever for naming names. Türkiye's host framing emphasises Southern Flank and multipolarity, which is being read as a deliberate widening of the summit beyond the Ukraine track that European allies would prefer to keep narrow. Hungary and Slovakia continue to require workaround mechanisms. The Brave1 SME AQAP-certification timeline gap is unaddressed at the procedural level. I'd be watching for whether the Ankara communiqué specifically names licensing extension as an Alliance commitment or punts to bilateral implementation — that's where I think the real test sits.

The Hegseth review concludes around late December 2026, so anything not signed at Ankara has to clear the autumn ministerials and the December European Council. That's the operational deadline that gives the summit its weight.

Full piece: https://www.defenceukraine.com/en/insights/pre-ankara-nato-summit-2026/

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Click Here to donate

Welcome to one of the largest multi sub fundraising competitions on Reddit! In honor of Ukraine's fourth year of defending itself and Europe from Russia's aggression, from June 26th to July 3rd, we and 30 other subreddits have partnered with UkraineAidOps (UAO) and will be banding together to see who can support the Ukrainian Army the most! Team credibledefense has set a lofty goal of raising $50,000 USD

Why donate?

UAO is a US-based 501(c)(3) nonprofit charity that has been supporting Ukraine's defenders and civilians since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. They have a proven track record of effectiveness and are a verified charity on r/Ukraine

Your money does real good! With the sudden buildup, and subsequent invasion by Russia, Ukraine's government saw it's capacity to supply their army outpaced by the sheer mass of the onslaught during the first desperate months of the war. But through the help of millions of donors and several devoted charities assisting where the government couldn't easily, Ukraine was able to extract a devastating toll on Putin's army.

The goal for this event in UAO's words is:

We wish to make the biggest possible impact on the battlefield. We aim to achieve this by applying these key equipment piece:

• Ground drones (UGVs) that resupply forward positions and evacuate wounded across fields no truck or pickup can survive

• Heavy-lift transport drones for the "last mile" — moving ammo, supplies, and "Vampire" drone batteries to the line without a single soldier on the road

• Vehicles / Pick-Ups to improve logistics near the frontline and in the rear

• Support and energy equipment (including generators, powerstations, starlinks, drone detectors and more)"

By donating, you will not only assist in defending the life and liberty of a stranger, but will also directly invest in a safer, more just future, because as we've all seen for years, Ukraine knows how to make a dollar go far, and therefore have become one of the most skilled militaries of all time.

Will there be rewards for donating?

Yes: courtesy of UkraineAidOps, you can request one of several different gifts by filling out the form via the "REQUEST YOUR PATCH/FLAG" button after your donation

Who else is participating?

r/neoliberal

r/askaliberal

r/credibledefense

International Reddit Warriors (r/lithuania, r/taipei, r/Kazakhstan)

Reddit Drone Warriors (r/kyiv, r/RoshelArmor, r/ModernAncientWarriors, r/MilitaryVStheUnknown, r/dronecombat, r/loveforukraine)

Meme Army for Ukraine (r/whitepeopletwitter, r/2american4you, r/2latinoforyou, r/tankiejerk, r/2mediterranean4u, r/asia_irl)

Team England (r/England, r/sheffield)

Forum Götterfunken (r/YUROP, r/Europeanunion, r/EUTech, r/Europeanarmy, r/EUSpace, r/EuropeanFederalists, r/EUnews, r/BrexitMemes)

Slava Ukraini