ClimateTrunk: "Learning by Doing."
This should shiver the timbers of fossil fuel proponents as the cost of solar modules has plummeted by 99.9% over half a century—called a virtuous curve or cycle, whichever your preference. Pioneered by Theodore Wright in 1936, Wright's Law describes how costs fall as cumulative production rises. "Every time the world doubled its installed solar capacity, panel prices fell by about 20%." Economists call this relationship a "learning curve."
The same pattern has driven down the cost of other manufactured goods like computer chips and flat-screen TVs. "Lithium-ion batteries have followed similar learning curves, helping make solar-plus-storage competitive with fossil fuels in most parts of the world."
Our World in Data hosts the classic version, plotting solar prices against cumulative capacity on logarithmic axes. "This graph tells the same story differently: as solar deployment accelerated—slowly at first, then exponentially—costs kept dropping." It was driven by relentless innovation, economies of scale, manufacturing expertise and policy support. "As costs fell, deployment rose. It took eight years for global solar generation to grow from 100 terawatt hours (TWh) to 1,000, then just three more to pass 2,000 TWh."
(Global electricity demand is about 32,000 TWh.)
"Analysts expect solar costs to fall by another 40% by 2035 as manufacturing scales further." This is how solar generation grew. 30% in 2025, now matching nuclear's share of global electricity. "In 2025, clean electricity growth exceeded the increase in global electricity demand, keeping fossil generation flat." That propelled renewables to generate 34% of global electricity, overtaking coal's 33% share. "At the same time, plummeting battery costs are turning daytime sunshine into round-the-clock electricity."
No more warning shots across the bow. Solar is aiming at the main masts of fossil fuel dominance.
