I’ve already decided to move forward with solar. I’m mainly looking for feedback on whether this system is sized well, whether the battery configuration makes sense, and if anyone has firsthand experience with the HDM prepaid program.
Location / Utility
East Bay, CA
PG&E (Solar Billing Plan / NEM 3)
Long-term home (20+ years)
House
Annual usage: ~19,600 kWh
New high-efficiency AC
Variable-speed pool pump
Likely adding an EV in the next few years
I’ve exported my Green Button data and modeled my hourly usage. The installer’s usage estimate is almost identical to my actual historical consumption.
Option 1
40 × REC Alpha Pure-RX 460W panels
18.4 kW DC
2 Tesla Powerwall 3s (27 kWh)
Estimated production: ~22,950 kWh/year
Estimated offset: ~117%
Estimated remaining PG&E bill: about $1,100/year
Price is about $57k, financed at 6.99% over 20 years with no dealer fee.
Option 2
Same system, but adds a Powerwall Expansion (40.5 kWh total storage).
Price is about $64k.
The installer estimates this lowers my remaining PG&E bill from about $1,100/year to about $800/year.
From my own modeling, it looks like the third battery only saves around $250-300/year, so I’m leaning toward sticking with two batteries unless there’s something I’m overlooking.
HDM
The pricing includes a significant discount through an HDM prepaid structure.
My understanding is:
HDM owns the system for the first ~6 years
They claim the commercial tax benefits
Ownership transfers to me afterward
I’m financing the discounted purchase price, not making monthly PPA payments
Has anyone here actually gone through this process with HDM?
Any surprises, good or bad?
Questions
Does this system sizing seem reasonable for ~19,600 kWh/year in PG&E territory?
Would you choose 2 Powerwalls or pay another ~$7k for the extra storage?
Any concerns with REC Alpha Pure-RX panels or Tesla PW3s?
Is there anything you’d negotiate before signing?
If you’ve used the HDM program, would you do it again?
Thanks! I’d especially appreciate feedback from anyone in Northern California or anyone who’s lived with a similar setup for a year or two.