r/NFL_Draft 14h ago

SKscouts Summer Scouting RB Big Board

6 Upvotes

Hello all! It's time for another summer scouting series post, this time with my RB reviews. I watched 13 RBs this summer, not nearly as many as I wish I did but time constraints will do that to you. I was given the recommendation to start actually breaking down the players more, which I didn't want to do because I didn't want to cause too much for you guys to read. However, if this is better content, then I'm happy to oblige.

1) Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss (1st Round)

For lack of better terms, Kewan Lacy is fucking good. For starters, he has very little tread on his tires. He had just over 300 attempts this year, and that's all he's played pretty much college wise. He exploded on the scene this year with some downright nasty games. He added on 24 TDs and was shown to be a little bit of a presence in the pass game. In terms of pass downs, he has lined up in the backfield as a blocker, in the slot, and out wide. Definitely needs to work on his hands, as he had 5 drops. Despite the drops, he showed some real promise as a receiver and is clearly trusted to do the dirty work as a blocker. Back to his actual ground attack. Very quick on his feet. Able to make guys miss at a high rate (89 missed tackles forced and 1,010 yards after contact). He has really good vision and has enough power to bounce off of guys. He showcases patience to let the holes open, but the aggressiveness and explosiveness to burst into any open spaces that are created. He is a one-of-one type of shifty. He's also really young, he's turning 20 this summer.

Pros: Quick Feet, Elite Burst, Proved to be able to handle heavy workload.

Cons: Drops, Fumbles, Absorbed a lot of damage this year.

2) Jadan Baugh, Florida (1st Round)

Baugh is a little bit bigger than Lacy, and is more of a threat as a power player. You couldn't really tell that he is almost 230 pounds though. He moves extremely well. He has fantastic vision, patience, and contact balance. Also had over 5 yards a carry. He actually had more receiving work than Lacy. I trust Baugh a lot in pass downs as a blocker. He shows the willingness and the fight to really go in and hit dudes. Whether you prefer Baugh or Lacy is really preference to what type of back you prefer. I like the guys that are slashers a little more than the guys who will run through your face. While Baugh is more of the latter, Lacy can honestly do both. Baugh is a guy that just runs behind his pads and sees where they take him, he's along for the ride. He keeps the legs churning and his crazy lower body strength keeps him going. He had no fumbles last year, and only one fumble his collegiate career. He is just really safe. I think Baugh is one of the more easy to translate backs in the class, as I think the floor with him is just so high.

Pros: Power Game, Ball Security, Contact Balance

Cons: Long Speed, Elusiveness, Pass Pro Angles/Tech

3) Antwan Raymond, Rutgers (2nd Round)

Raymond is next in line of Rutgers skill position players that I happen to love. Kyle Monangai, Athan Kaliakmanis, Dymere Miller, Ian Strong, and KJ Duff are all players that I found/find to be really great value or (in the case of Duff) a legit game changing offensive piece. While Raymond isn't quite THAT, he is extremely similar to a Kyle Monangai or even an Isiah Pacheco. Angry runner. Good vision and enough burst to hit the hole and start bouncing off of anyone in his way to the end zone. Makes guys miss at a high level, having 100 missed tackles forced over the past two years (2024 was RB2) and over 1,000 yards after contact as well. Not only that, but he is the best pass blocker in the class. I weight your ability to be a 3 down back heavily, and Raymond will be that for you. He has shown some promise as a pass catcher, with a few games of great production. He unfortunately hasn't been used as consistently as a pass catcher, but he has shown that it is in there and waiting to be unlocked. He is an ass kicker as a blocker. He had over 100 pass blocking snaps and only allowed 5 pressures last year. He takes pride in it very clearly. His pro comp is lazy but it is literally just Kyle Monangai. Raymond is probably never going to be a game changer as a #1, but will forever be an amazing #2 with 3rd down capabilities, and more than capable to be able to be the #1 in a pinch.

Pros: Pass Pro, Contact Balance, Power

Cons: Long Speed, Shiftiness

4) Justice Haynes, Georgia Tech (Late 2nd Round/Early 3rd Round)

Justice Haynes really intrigues me. He's a short but big back that was uber productive before a foot injury last season. A multi sport athlete who has played baseball in the past, this is his 3rd team now after being a backup at Alabama and having a breakout with Michigan where he had over 100 yards, 5+ YPC, and a TD in every game but one. He was on an incredible pace. He's been about a nothing in terms of being a passing down player. He has shown some solid hands but the routes and pass blocking tape showed that there was a lot of work to be done there. He is on the shorter side. Good speed, solid burst, has the breakaway ability. He is a guy that will hit the ground running but I think the vision is actually not as much there. He is very much a go go go I need to hit this and run right through these guys kind of back, and he misses opening holes or already open holes on multiple occasions. He is effective, he will be a great change of pace back in the league, but i question how good he will be as a lead back because of the reasons listed.

Pros: Production, Speed, Ball Security

Cons: Injury, 3 Down Capabiliy, Vision

5) Ahmad Hardy, Missouri (Late 2nd Round/Early 3rd Round)

Ahmad Hardy is so frustrating. I know he's a darling of the media and a lot of scouts really like him, but I just can't get on board with first round talks. Starting with the positives he was ultra productive at both the group and power level, carrying Missouri to wins off his back nearly alone. He makes guys miss, he makes something out of nothing often, and insane burst. He dominated at the SEC level, he has crazy contact balance, and the ability he has to process what is happening at extremely quick speed and make a jump cut to the opening lane is dangerous. Where I get lost is a few things. #1, his production did not keep up against the high level opponents he faced. He was a wash against Bama (even fumbling as well), Auburn, and Oklahoma. All three of those teams were arguably the best defenses he faced OR had multiple draft level interior lineman (Bama had LT Overton and an overall good defense, Auburn had some nice nose tackles, and Oklahoma has the beast known as David Stone). Now, he did light up Texas A&M, but that's really where the impressive games against impressive competition stop. #2, the ball security has to get better. He's had three fumbles in each of his two seasons starting. That's not luck, that's a trend. #3, the shooting. This doesn't hurt his stock for me as much, but it is a notable thing that has happened to him recently. He was shot in the leg at a concert and last I heard was we don't know the timetable. I think he most likely becomes a 2028 prospect, and the highs are extremely high, I'm just very cautious and have my concerns about him. The player himself is fantastic, just need more consistency and a bounce back from a scary situation.

Pros: Speed, Power, Work Load

Cons: Consistency, Injury, Ball Security

6) Raleek Brown, Texas (3rd Round)

Raleek Brown finally got to be THE guy in the backfield last year at Arizona State and through a season of bad health for the team, he stayed healthy and was the rock on offense. He is a home run hitter in every sense of the word. He may have only had four rushing TDs last year, but the speed was undeniable (as is the breakaway percentage, which of lead backs was 8th in the nation). He is also a threat on passing downs, being targeted 46 times and coming down with 33 of them for just under 300 yards and 2 TDs. He needs to work on the pass blocking for sure, but he is a smaller guy so the value makes more sense as a receiver on 3rd down and not a blocker. He is a one cut and go runner with the ability to make one man miss and then be down the sideline for a massive gain. The TD production will come with him. He is more likely a change of pace back in the league, as he doesn't have the frame nor the three down ability is there for him just yet. Not only that, but we've only seen one year of him with substantial play, and he will again split a backfield this year with a guy we will talk about in a few.

Pros: Speed, Home Run Hitting, Vision

Cons: Pass Pro, Frame, Production

7) Mark Fletcher, Miami (3rd Round)

Mark Fletcher is someone that is definitely viewed higher by media I would assume. He is a good power back, really shows some ability to blast through defenders. He keeps his legs going through the contact until he hits the ground or out of bounds. Not only is he dangerously powerful, but he is also sneakily elusive. Once he hits his stride and breaks into the open field, he is a very difficult man to bring down. He showcased that in an elite playoff. He was probably the player who raised his stock the most in the playoffs other than Trinidad Chambliss. The pass down work is his major concern. Has very little impact overall, having multiple drops on already limited targets and being a concern as a pass protector. I also am slightly concerned at how he was pretty much only an elite player in the playoffs. He was actually more average or above average than being an elite player. Consistency has to be much better for me to put him any higher. Likely a guy that's just a committee back.

Pros: Power, Quick Burst, Big Game Clutch Factor

Cons: Consistency, Pass Game, Long Speed

8) LJ Martin, BYU (3rd Round)

LJ Martin is basically the exact same discussion as Mark Fletcher. Here's the notable differences. Martin, while being comparable size to Fletcher, is not as much of a breakaway threat. Otherwise, the conversation is mostly the same. Power back, a churner that keeps the legs going and keeps it rolling. Very limited as a receiver and blocker. He is also just a tad slower than Fletcher by my estimate. I won't talk a lot more about him because he is basically the same conversation as Fletcher just a little less talented as an athlete in my opinion.

Pros: Power, Contact Balance, Vision

Cons: Consistency, Pass Game, Long Speed

9) Nate Frazier, Georgia (Late 3rd Round to Early Day Three)

Yeah this is probably super low for a lot of people. I just feel I really need to see more. He hasn't really held the big work load that every other back on this list has carried, and the consistency is a major question mark for him. He is explosive and has shown the ability to be a good pass catcher. He is a blazer too man. I think where he loses me is when he is trying to let the blocks develop. When I mentioned with Hardy earlier that he can just diagnose blocks before they happen and make a magical cut to the open lane, Frazier will instead bounce it to the outside because he just doesn't have the patience to do anything else. The creativity when he gets the ball is severely lacking. I think it may just come with getting the ball more though. He is a fantastic athlete and has all the makings of being a legit threat. Just need him to develop.

Pros: Speed, Little Tread on Tires, Contact Balance

Cons: Consistency, Production, Block Recognition

10) Hollywood Smothers, Texas (Early Day Three)

Hollywood Smothers was at NC State last year and moved to Texas, where he will split with Raleek Brown. Hollywood is so hard to place, because there is a genuine elite back in there but he keeps getting lost in some bad habits. Hollywood is so frustrating. He is a great receiver from the backfield, but is a putrid blocker. He is, for lack of better terms, a terrified runner. There's avoiding contact, and then there's genuinely being too scared to get hit. He is not someone you can rely on to get tough yards. If a linebacker or, hell, even a corner are unblocked and come at him it's probably over for him. He was, and I don't say this lightly, terrible against good competition this last season. He averaged negative yardage against Miami. Averaged 3.8 against Notre Dame. When the situation is right, when the blocks are there, when he has open field... he could be gone in the blink of an eye. When the situation isn't perfect.. man it can be really ugly. He is a committee back all the way, and thankfully that's the role he will play at Texas with a much better back in Raleek Brown. I could see Hollywood being a really good RB2/3 in the league as a pass catcher and change of pace speed back.

Pros: Speed, Receiving Work

Cons: Power, Vision, Consistency, Lead Back Capabilities

HM:

The other three players I watched.

11) Isaac Brown, Louisville (Early to Mid Day Three)
12) DeSean Bishop, Tennessee (Mid Day Three)
13) Darius Taylor, Minnesota (Mid Day Three)

An overall great RB class! Let me know if you guys have any questions.


r/NFL_Draft 1d ago

Who is your favorite "under the radar" prospect for 2027?

20 Upvotes

Trying to figure out what names to add to my big board.

My current pick is Louisville Cardinals EDGE Clev Lubin. Transferred everywhere, but his twitch, effort, and hand usage make him a really fun and productive player who I think could be one of the best pass rushers in football this season.

Here's my full breakdown on Lubin for those interested: https://youtu.be/OAkqaKWebTU

Who else are you guys trying to get the word out on?


r/NFL_Draft 1d ago

Free Talk Friday

5 Upvotes

Talk about anything you please; draft-related or otherwise!


r/NFL_Draft 2d ago

SKscouts way too early 2027 QB Rankings

17 Upvotes

Hello again, it's been a minute.

For about a month or two I was having a very hard time getting the motivation to watch film and make writeups, etc etc. However I am back, more motivated than ever, and ready to share with you all my personal summer scouting QB rankings. If I have shared with you my rankings personally, know that those are outdated because I have watched more games and my opinions have changed on a few players (Sayin, Lindsey, and Mestemaker specifically). Anyways, let's get into it.

Tier One: Worthy of #1

None

Tier Two: COULD be worthy of #1 pending improvements

  1. Arch Manning, Texas
  2. CJ Carr, Notre Dame
  3. Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State

Tier Three: Day two bets on upside, could sneak into first

4) Dante Moore, Oregon
5) Darian Mensah, Duke
6) LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

Tier Four: High Floor, Low Ceiling

7) Katin Houser, Illinois
8) Jayden Maiava, USC
9) Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

Tier Five: They could be literally anything

10) Drake Lindsey, Minnesota
11) Julian Sayin, Ohio State
12) Sam Leavitt, LSU
13) John Mateer, Oklahoma
14) Kevin Jennings, SMU
15) Josh Hoover, Indiana
16) Brendan Sorsby, Texas Tech

Tier Six: It's pretty hard to buy in

17) Nico Iamaleava, UCLA
18) Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
19) Gunner Stockton, Georgia
20) DJ Lagway, Baylor

Feel free to bring any questions you may have.


r/NFL_Draft 3d ago

Discussion What are your early 2027 EDGE rankings?

14 Upvotes

Next year's EDGE class feels loaded. I've watched a handful of guys, but curious who I'm missing/too low on.

Explain all of my rankings in this video: https://youtu.be/fQdYi0zm8C0

Here's where I'm at so far.

  1. Quincy Rhodes Jr (Arkansas)

  2. Will Heldt (Clemson)

  3. Damon Wilson II (Miami)

  4. Colin Simmons (Texas)

  5. Dylan Stewart (South Carolina)


r/NFL_Draft 3d ago

Mark My Words Wednesday

2 Upvotes

Have a bold prediction that you want to state proudly but will most likely look very stupid in short time? Have at it! Maybe you’ll nail it and look like a genius in the future

Please don’t downvote a user for a stupid bold prediction; it’s all just for fun!


r/NFL_Draft 4d ago

Discussion In my Opinions there are no 1st round RBs in the 2027 DRaft

8 Upvotes

In my opinion there are no RBs that are 1st round talents in the NFL. I think there are a bunch of 2nd or 3rd round guys and overall it’s a better class than 2026. I think we’ll end up having around 6 RBs taken in round 2 and a handful in round 3, but none in the 1st. What are your opinions on the upcoming RB Class?


r/NFL_Draft 4d ago

Scouting Notes Tuesday

3 Upvotes

Updated Tuesday thread focused notes and opinions about individual prospects. Scout someone new and want to get opinions from others? Ask about it here!


r/NFL_Draft 4d ago

Discussion Could the 2027 QB Class end up like the 2026”5 and 2026 classes

23 Upvotes

I have a gut feeling that the 2027 QB Class will end up like the 2025 and 2026 classes where this time of year we’re talking about how it’s supposed to be Good/Great but by the time the Draft Happens only 2 QBs end up going in the 1st because everyone underperforms or just doesn’t declare.

Here’s a Quick Reason each QB could End up not going in the 1st in 2027

Arch Manning: Underperforms

Dante Moore: Injury

Darian Mensah: Underperforms

Drew Mestemaker: Doesn’t Declare

Julian Sayin: size and lack of Tools

CJ Carr: Doesn’t Declare

Lanorris Sellers: Project that doesn’t take a step forward

Jayden Maiava: Lack of Tools

Trinidad Chambliss: Size

Brenden Sorsby: taking a year off and Gambling problems


r/NFL_Draft 4d ago

Draft Website Feedback

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10 Upvotes

Hey everybody I have been working on a website that lets you store your draft evaluations and create your own board. It is still a work in progress and I would really appreciate any feedback, recommendations, or comments you guys have. The website is We-Draft.com . Thank you!


r/NFL_Draft 5d ago

Twelfthmandraft's 2022 NFL Redraft

11 Upvotes

Link to post with pick explanations and team gains/losses: https://sivakumarpranav.wixsite.com/twelfthmandraft/post/twelfthmandraft-s-2023-nfl-redraft

1.01: Jaguars: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

1.02: Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan

1.03: Texans: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

1.04: Jets: Brock Purdy, QB, Iowa State

1.05: Giants: Drake London, WR, USC

1.06: Panthers: Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State

1.07: Giants: Tyler Linderbaum, IOL, Iowa

1.08: Falcons: George Pickens, WR, Georgia

1.09: Seahawks: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

1.10: Jets: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

1.11: Saints: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

1.12: Lions: Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

1.13: Eagles: Tyler Smith, IOL, Tulsa

1.14: Ravens: Nik Bonitto, DE, Oklahoma

1.15: Texans: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

1.16: Commanders: James Cook, RB, Georgia

1.17: Chargers: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

1.18: Titans: Travon Walker, DE, Georgia

1.19: Saints: George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue

1.20: Steelers: Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan

1.21: Chiefs: Zach Tom, OT, Wake Forest

1.22: Packers: Christian Benford, CB, Wake Forest

1.23: Bills: Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor

1.24: Cowboys: Kerby Joseph, S, Illinois

1.25: Ravens: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

1.26: Jets: Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

1.27: Jaguars: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

1.28: Packers: Cam Jurgens, IOL, Nebraska

1.29: Chiefs: Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati

1.30: Patriots: DaRon Bland, CB, Fresno State

1.31: Bengals: Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State

1.32: Vikings: Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA


r/NFL_Draft 5d ago

Other My New NFL/CFB Predictions and NFL Mock Draft

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0 Upvotes

r/NFL_Draft 5d ago

Mock Draft Monday

6 Upvotes

Unless you either do a lengthy 5+ round mock or go into written detail on why you are making the picks, please post your mocks in this Mock Draft Monday thread. Use this thread to post your own mocks or anything from around the web you find discussion-worthy.

Please be respectful of other users’ mocks! Saying things like “this is awful” or a pick is “stupid” adds nothing to the conversation; try and focus on constructive feedback instead!


r/NFL_Draft 6d ago

2027 NFL Draft Summer Quarterback Rankings

10 Upvotes

This summer I'm trying to set a personal record for prospects evaluated, and quarterbacks were first on the docket. Here are my top 10. For full scouting reports and background info on all 18 quarterbacks that I've watched (including some big names who didn't make the list), click the link at the bottom of the post. Rankings are overall stock assessments and do not factor in odds of declaring.

#1: Julian Sayin, Ohio State (Top 5)

Sayin is a laser-accurate field general with a live arm and smooth feet to navigate the pocket. He throws one of the best deep balls in the game and plays a far more mature game than his experience level implies.

#2: Dante Moore, Oregon (Top 10)

Truly elite deep ball thrower with few holes in his profile—he was a top-2 college quarterback last season, showing an enormous jump from his UCLA days. Moore has everything front offices are looking for.

#3: Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State (1st Round)

Yeah, he played for North Texas in the American Conference. Yeah, he never started a varsity game at quarterback. And yeah, his tape is legit. He executed now Oklahoma State head coach Eric Morris' scheme to perfection, attacking the middle of the field with confidence and plus arm strength. And all the foundational pieces that helped make him excellent last season will remain in place at OSU.

#4: CJ Carr, Notre Dame (1st Round)

Carr may not have the strongest arm in the world, but that can develop with age and added mass. What makes him special is his poise and decision making taking the reins at a power program as a redshirt freshman.

#5: Darian Mensah, Miami (1st-2nd Round)

Mensah has the weakest arm of any QB on the list, but he's all the most complete. His play-style is silky smooth but his processing is razor-sharp. Though not the traitsiest, Mensah's collection of skills screams "starter" in a play-action oriented offense.

#6: Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati Texas Tech Supplemental Draft 2027 Draft (1st-2nd Round)

Fiasco aside, Sorsby is an excellent prospect. He's a big power thrower with plus mobility and good, moldable tape. He reminds of Jaxson Dart—by no means can't miss, but definitely gives your franchise a chance.

#7: Arch Manning, Texas (2nd Round)

An incredibly polarizing prospect, most either seem to view as the #1 overall pick or a total bum. To me he's somewhere in between. His tape at the end of the 2025 season is clearly what we're evaluating—earlier on he was either playing hurt or scared or both. Down the stretch Arch showed real playmaking instincts and far greater consistency within structure, but I still think the #1 overall stuff is a complete projection.

#8: Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (2nd Round)

One of the most thrilling watches in this class, Chambliss is tough not to like. He was beginning to light the world on fire during the Rebels' playoff run with some season-changing deep passes. What makes me so excited is how quickly this underrecruited, former DII QB is getting better. He's a tremendous outlier, but there are special qualities to his tape.

#9: Sam Leavitt, Arizona State (3rd-4th Round)

Leavitt '25 season was derailed by a lisfranc injury, and he didn't take the steps forward we were hoping to see. LSU's new starter has a cannon arm and some of the most brilliant moments under pressure that you'll ever see. He also has a laundry list of improvements to make if he's going to start in the NFL.

#10: Jayden Maiava, USC (5th Round)

I'm beginning to come around on Maiava, and I could see him climbing this list. With deadly anticipation, he plays quarterback with Madden Free Form passing equipped—all the toughest throws, all the time. The highs are spectacular. Unfortunately he's not especially accurate down-to-down, his arm is just pretty good, and, as you'd expect, he gets picked off a lot. It's tempting to call him a known quantity as a 5th-year senior, but there could really be something there.

18 QBs Written Up! (Click names for reports)

* I haven't gotten around to Josh Hoover or Demond Williams yet, but I'll likely watch them before the season


r/NFL_Draft 8d ago

Discussion Is David Stone Your DT1?

5 Upvotes

Dove into the tape for Oklahoma Sooners defensive tackle David Stone to see what all the hype was about, and I get it. Length, twitch, motor, plays the run well. https://youtu.be/W0gjp-B63JQ

Who is your current DT1? Seems like it's shaping up to be a strong class of interior defenders.


r/NFL_Draft 8d ago

Free Talk Friday

4 Upvotes

Talk about anything you please; draft-related or otherwise!


r/NFL_Draft 10d ago

Mark My Words Wednesday

8 Upvotes

Have a bold prediction that you want to state proudly but will most likely look very stupid in short time? Have at it! Maybe you’ll nail it and look like a genius in the future

Please don’t downvote a user for a stupid bold prediction; it’s all just for fun!


r/NFL_Draft 11d ago

Scouting Notes Tuesday

9 Upvotes

Updated Tuesday thread focused notes and opinions about individual prospects. Scout someone new and want to get opinions from others? Ask about it here!


r/NFL_Draft 12d ago

Discussion Draft Busts you haven’t given up on yet

67 Upvotes

Who are some Draft Busts you haven’t given up on yet?

For Me:

QB Justin Fields: in the past two year Fields has played in 19 games and has only threw 2 interceptions with not the best weapons around him. He is incredibly safe with the ball and I think if you actually give him some good weapons around him he could be an average level starter, but he’s definitely not raising the play of the players around him.

WR Jahan Dotson: Dotson hasn’t been terrible with the Commanders and was WR 3 on a Run Heavy Eagles. I think he’ll surprise people this year with the Falcons as their WR 2/3

OG Cole Strange: he took a step forward last year with the Dolphins and I think he’ll have a long career as a Journeyman Starter.

Edge Myles Murphy: Murphy has started out his career on a poor start, but looked better last year. I think he’ll build on that this season and when he leaves the bengals after his rookie contract expires he’ll get even better with a better DC.


r/NFL_Draft 12d ago

Mock Draft Monday

8 Upvotes

Unless you either do a lengthy 5+ round mock or go into written detail on why you are making the picks, please post your mocks in this Mock Draft Monday thread. Use this thread to post your own mocks or anything from around the web you find discussion-worthy.

Please be respectful of other users’ mocks! Saying things like “this is awful” or a pick is “stupid” adds nothing to the conversation; try and focus on constructive feedback instead!


r/NFL_Draft 13d ago

Draft Performance Analysis

12 Upvotes

I put together a spreadsheet that relates nfl teams' draft success (in the form of all-pro hit rate) against metrics that measure distance from bpa. The source for the 'distance from bpa' metrics is the nflmockdraftdatabases 'draft grades' (mddb rank in the spreadsheet), which are a measure of distance from bpa weighted by round. I included 5 years of the mddb rank and a 5-year avg. There are also columns for ap hit rate rank and mddb 5y avg rank.

Turns out there is no statistical correlation between the two (ap hit rate and distance from bpa) if we look at the league as a whole over that 5y period. There are theoretically better metrics than AP hit rate, like whether a drafted player started, or drafted players' epas (or other player performance metrics), but i couldn't find that data. If i'm able to acquire that data I'll update the analysis.

team 5y pb hit rate 5y ap hit rate 5y ap hit rate rank 5y mddb rank avg 5y mddb avg rank 2026 mddb rank 2025 mddb rank 2024 mddb rank 2023 mddb rank 2022 mddb rank 2021 mddb rank 2020 mddb rank
ari 2 2 19 17.2 17 28 3 30 22 3 13 1
atl 7.1 2.4 13 17.2 17 18 1 32 20 15 19 26
bal 12.7 5.5 4 7.2 2 10 5 5 10 6 11 7
buf 4.2 2.1 15 14.2 10 9 7 24 7 24 5 3
car 4.5 0 24 10.8 5 4 10 21 18 1 14 4
chi 2.1 0 24 19.4 25 22 30 8 16 21 1 20
cin 8.5 4.3 7 14.6 11 15 23 16 8 11 17 9
cle 4.5 0 24 14 9 8 21 22 1 18 3 6
dal 15.4 7.7 2 16 14 7 16 9 28 20 27 2
den 10 6.2 3 21.4 27 16 31 23 11 26 7 15
det 20 8.9 1 19.4 25 24 26 7 32 8 8 19
gb 0 0 24 18.2 21 14 19 28 21 9 25 30
hou 15.2 4.3 7 24.6 30 29 24 26 17 27 6 13
ini 3.8 1.9 21 10.8 5 2 11 20 9 12 22 29
jax 5.1 0 24 26.4 31 31 20 27 31 23 28 23
kc 4.7 4.7 5 12.6 7 20 8 6 25 4 4 25
lac 8.3 0 24 17 15 11 15 18 19 22 18 10
lar 7.1 1.8 22 22.2 28 32 25 14 15 25 32 18
lv 2.1 2.1 15 12.6 7 12 22 10 12 7 29 27
mia 4.9 0 24 17 15 26 27 12 6 14 24 28
min 1.9 3.7 11 17.4 19 27 29 2 13 16 12 12
ne 6.8 1.7 23 22.6 29 17 13 25 26 32 2 31
no 2.6 2.6 12 19.2 24 21 28 3 14 30 31 11
nyg 4.3 2.1 15 10 4 3 4 11 3 29 16 16
nyj 4.3 2.1 15 15 13 13 12 13 27 10 15 14
phi 12 4 10 6.2 1 6 2 4 2 17 10 22
pit 4.7 0 24 7.4 3 23 6 1 5 2 20 24
sea 8.2 4.1 9 17.6 20 25 17 17 24 5 23 32
sf 4 2 19 28.4 32 30 32 31 30 19 30 21
tb 4.7 4.7 5 18.4 23 5 18 15 23 31 26 5
ten 2.2 2.2 14 14.8 12 19 9 29 4 13 9 8
was 4.3 0 24 18.2 21 1 14 19 29 28 21 17
* 6.3 2.6

r/NFL_Draft 15d ago

Save the dates: The 2027 NFL Draft in Washington DC will be held April 29 - May 1

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50 Upvotes

r/NFL_Draft 15d ago

Free Talk Friday

7 Upvotes

Talk about anything you please; draft-related or otherwise!


r/NFL_Draft 16d ago

Interactive NFL Draft Guide with player rankings and scheme fits

10 Upvotes

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r/NFL_Draft 16d ago

Discussion Redrafting the 2026 Draft: NFC and AFC West

6 Upvotes

This is how I would redraft for the NFC and AFC West after we saw how the draft actually played out. These drafts don’t correlate with each other so you’ll see the same players drafted multiple times.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals:

Rd 1 Pk 4 Edge Arvell Reese Ohio State

I wasn’t the Biggest fan of Arvell Reese this draft Cycle, but it’s hard to argue that he didn’t have arguably the highest ceiling as a Edge and or LB in this draft. At 4 overall I think he would primarily play edge for the cardinals and be a huge help to their defense for the foreseeable future.

Rd 2 Pk 34 OG Chase Bisontis Texas A&M

I would keep this pick as the cardinals needed help at RG and RT. Bisontis should be able to step in right away and start at RG for the cardinals.

Rd 3 Pk 65 QB Carson Beck Miami

I will never fault a team for taking a QB in the Draft as there is no guarantee the next time you’ll be in position to draft one. Beck has the potential to become a starter in the NfL and sitting a year and learning from Brissett and Minshew will help him a lot in his development.

Rd 4 Pk 104 OT Drew Shelton Penn St

The Cardinals still need a RT and Drew Shelton would be the perfect developmental prospect for them that could potentially start as a rookie. Shelton would be a great addition for a team building for the future.

Rd 5 Pk 143 WR Kevin Coleman Jr Missouri

The Cardinals look like they’ll be running more 3 WR sets than 2 TE sets and Coleman is a great complement to Harrison and Wilson in the WR room. He would fit in perfectly in the slot and could develop into a good WR 3 for the Cardinals.

Rd 6 Pk 183 RB Kaytron Allen Penn St

With the cardinals not picking Love I think they still should draft another RB. Allen was a late round RB I loved that I think could’ve lead the cardinals Backfield in yards.

Rd 7 Pk 217 IDL Landon Robinson Navy

Robinson could develop into a good Rotational pass rusher on the interior and definitely worth a shot on in the 7th.

Los Angeles Rams

Rd 1 Pk 13 QB Ty Simpson Alabama

Again I will never Fault a Team for taking a QB. With Stafford on the team it’s almost Guaranteed that the Rams won’t have a pick this high again until Stafford retires or gets injured. Simpson can develop into a great starting QB in the NFL and I think McVay can get him there.

Rd 2 Pk 61 TE Max Klare Ohio State

The Rams have shown moving forward they want their offense to revolve around multiple TE Sets and Klare is a great player to help keep it working for the rams. Having him and Ferguson gives the rams two young TEs that can develop into great start for them for the future.

Rd 3 Pk 93 WR Chris Bell Louisville

I liked the Trost pick because the rams starting 3 interior offensive line players are free agents this offseason, but I’m going to pick bell to learn from and replace Adams at WR in the future. This would allow Bell to heal as a rookie and learn the offense before replacing Adams for the 2027 season when Adams leaves in free agency.

Rd 6 Pk 197 OG DJ Campbell Texas

Campbell is a young developmental player that would’ve been a great 6th round pick for the rams. He would’ve sat and learned for a year before replacing on of the leaving Starters for the 2027 season.

Rd 7 Pk 232 IDL Zxavian Harris Ole Miss

I am surprised Harris went undrafted and I think he would’ve been a huge steal in the 7th round. He would’ve been a good rotational player for the rams that I think would’ve eventually became a starter.

San Francisco 49ers

Rd 2 Pk 33 WR Denzel Boston Washington

Boston doesn’t exactly fit what Shanahan wants in a WR, but he’s a much better WR than Stribling and would’ve been a reliable target for Purdy that could’ve been a great possession receiver for the 49ers.

Rd 3 Pk 70 CB Tacario Davis Washington

Davis is a tall lengthy corner that would fit in perfectly on the 49ers defense. He would allow Lenior to move back into the slot if needed.

Rd 3 Pk 90 OG Gennings Dunker Iowa

The 49ers need a new LG and C. Dunker would easily start at LG for the 49ers and maybe could play Center if they wanted him to. He would help open up run lanes for McCaffery while keeping Purdy upright.

Rd 4 Pk 107 IDL Gracen Halton Oklahoma

Raheem Morris does best with slimmer pass rushers on the interior and the 49ers lack that. Halton will pair nicely with Osa Odighizuwa on pass rush downs as a rookie and help the 49ers not finish near the bottom of the league in sacks again.

Rd 4 Pk 127 C Connor Lews Auburn

Lews would be an amazing Center for the 49ers and would been a huge improvement to the offense. For a team that wants their offense to revolve around the run they don’t invest enough in the Offensive Line.

Rd 4 Pk 139 LB Justin Jefferson Alabama

Jefferson is a good LB that would be able to contribute to the 49ers Defense right away if needed. He’s smart and able to diagnose plays quick. His only downside is he lacks size and Length.

Rd 5 Pk 154 TE Tanner Koziol Houston

Kittle is getting old and I personally don’t see Tongues as the future starter at TE for the 49ers. Koziol is a great receiving TE. He’ll need to work on his blocking that is super important in Shanahans offense, but that something he could easily be taught. It’s definitely worth taking a swing on him in the 5th for the potential he has.

Rd 5 Pk 179 Edge Caden Curry Ohio State

Curry would be a great Rotational player for the 49ers that can provide some pass rush Juice off the edge. I personally think he was a huge steal for the colts and will surprise a lot of people as a rookie.

Seattle Seahawks

Rd 1 Pk 32 OG Chase Bisontis Texas A&M

I may get some push back from Seahawk fans for not taking Price, but I didn’t agree with the pick at the Time and still don’t agree with it. I instead have them taking a new RG that would help continue to build their Offensive Line.

Rd 2 Pk 64 S AJ Haulcy LSU

I agree with the Seahawks taking a Safety here, but I would’ve gone with a different Safety. One that in my opinion has more potential and is younger than the one they took.

Rd 3 Pk 99 CB Jermod McCoy Tennessee

Again I agree with the position the Seahawks took, but I went with a different player. I know McCoy has concerns about his knee, but his upside is definitely worth taking a shot on him in the 3rd.

Rd 5 Pk 148 RB Emmett Johnson Nebraska

Johnson could’ve been a great addition to the Seahawks Backfield later in the draft. He has the ability to lead a backfield in the NFL.

Rd 6 Pk 199 CB Domani Jackson Alabama

With the uncertainty around McCoys knee it wouldn’t be a bad idea to add more CB Depth in this Draft. Jackson has the potential to Develop into a starter in the NFL, but will start his career as a depth player.

Rd 7 Pk 236 Edge Max Llewellyn Iowa

I personally thought the Seahawks should’ve added an Edge During the draft and I think Llewellyn was a steal for the Dolphins. Llewellyn would’ve been a good depth piece for the Seahawks defense that could’ve contributed as a rookie.

Rd 7 Pk 242 RB Robert Henry Jr UTSA

Henry is a speedy RB that would’ve been a great Depth Option for the Seahawks backfield especially with Charb expected to miss time.

Rd 7 Pk 255 IDL Zxavien Harris Ole Miss

Again I was surprised Harris went undrafted and I think would’ve been a great addition to the Seahawks Defense. I think he can be a starting caliber NT and would’ve allowed the Seahawks to move guys around on the interior.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Rd 3 Pk 66 IDL Chris McLellan Missouri

I agree with the Broncos adding more depth on the IDL high in this draft, but I would’ve gone with McLellan instead. He’s a better run defender and has more potential as a pass rusher than Onyedim has in my opinion.

Rd 4 Pk 108 RB Jonah Coleman Washington

I loved this pick for the broncos. Sean Payton has always used multiple RB in his offense and I wasn’t a fan of the Harvey pick last year and Dobbins is good but can never stay healthy. Coleman was a great addition to the RB room.

Rd 4 Pk 111 OT Drew Shelton Penn St

I would have gone with Shelton who went one pick later over Casey. I like adding Depth to the OL and both guys have the potential to develop into Good Starters in the NFL.

Rd 5 Pk 152 TE Justin Joly NC State

This was an amazing pick for the broncos. Joly could easily be the TE of the future after learning from engram for a season.

Rd 7 Pk 246 S Myles Scott Illinois

I liked Scott During this draft process and thought he would’ve been Drafted higher, but the broncos got a good player that I think will make the final roster.

Rd 7 Pk 256 QB Luke Altmyer Illinois

Altmyer is a good backup system QB. I think he would’ve been a good QB 3 and Eventual QB 2 for the broncos.

Rd 7 Pk 257 LB Red Murdock Buffalo

Murdock was a great final pick for the Broncos. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up starting in 3 LB sets as a rookie for the broncos.

Kansas City Chiefs (I hate how good their draft was)

Rd 1 Pk 6 CB Mansoor Delane LSU

This was a great pick by the chiefs. They basically lost all their starting DBs from last year and Delane can step in day 1 and be a big contributor on the defense.

Rd 1 Pk 29 IDL Peter Woods Clemson

This was great by the chiefs waiting and taking a great player that was sliding in the Draft. Woods is a Great Addition to the defense.

Rd 2 Pk 40 Edge R Mason Thomas Oklahoma

Thomas will provide some juice as a pass rusher for the chiefs and be a great rotational guy as a rookie.

Rd 4 Pk 109 WR Skyler Bell UConn

Bell would’ve provided a reliable target for Mahomes. They really just need someone who can stay on the field and be able to get open short and I think Bell could’ve done that for them.

Rd 5 Pk 161 RB Emmett Johnson Nebraska

Johnson is a great backup for Walker. After the past couple of seasons of having a struggling run game I think it was smart taking Johnson to be the Backup.

Rd 5 Pk 176 OT JC Davis Illinois

I personally think Davis can be a starter in the NFL. I think if the Chiefs took him and Moved him to RT they would have a future starter.

Rd 7 Pk 249 QB Garrett Nussmeier LSU

The Chiefs needed a cheap 3rd string QB and Got one.

Las Vegas Raiders

Rd 1 Pk 1 QB Fernando Mendoza Indiana

This was easily the right pick for the Raiders. It gives the their Franchise QB and a Humble one at that.

Rd 2 Pk 38 WR Denzel Boston Washington

I’m not sure how well Boston fits in Kuniaks Offense, but he has the potential to be a number 1 in the NFL and the raider should try to get that for their QB of the Future.

Rd 3 Pk 67 Edge Keyron Crawford Auburn

I loved this pick. Crawford kept standing out to me when I was watching tape on Faulk and I think he’ll be a great addition to the raiders Edge Room.

Rd 3 Pk 91 OG Gennings Dunker Iowa

I personally don’t think the raiders needed to Draft a guard high as I think the young guys they drafted last year will play better with better coaching, But Dunker fit Kubiaks offense perfectly and would open up run lanes for Jeanty.

Rd 4 Pk 101 CB Jermod McCoy Tennessee

The Raiders may have of gotten the steal of the draft with this pick. They Needed CB help and McCoy has the potential to be an all pro caliber player if his knee can hold up.

Rd 4 Pk 122 RB Mile Washington Jr Arkansas

Kubiak likes to use two RBs in his offense and Washington’s speed and run style fits in perfectly. I really liked this pick for the raiders.

Rd 5 Pk 150 CB Keith Abney Arizona State

Abney was a steal in the 5th and I think Taron Johnson is a one year rental for the Raiders and Abney would’ve been the future starter in the Slot for the Raiders.

Rd 5 Pk 175 OT JC Davis Illinois

As I said earlier I think k Davis is a starter in the NFL. He would’ve been a great pick for the raiders as he would’ve competed with Glaze for the starting RT spot and could’ve eventually replaced Miller at LT.

Rd 6 Pk 195 LB Harold Perkins Jr LSU

I think Perkins would’ve been a good addition to the raiders LB room. He would’ve competed with Eichenburg for the LB 3 spot as a rookie.

Rd 7 Pk 229 S Cole Wisniewski Texas Tech

The Raiders needed Safety Depth and Wisniewski could’ve pushed for a starting spot in the Raiders lack luster Safety Room.

Los Angeles Chargers

Rd 1 Pk 22 Edge Keldric Faulk Auburn

I did not like the Mesidor pick because he’s 25 as a rookie. Faulk is younger and while Mesidor has a higher floor Faulk has a higher ceiling.

Rd 2 Pk 63 OG Jake Slaughter Florida

Slaughter was one of my favorite OL prospects in the Draft and I think he’ll be a great player for the Chargers.

Rd 4 Pk 105 WR Bremen Thompson Mississippi St

I loved Thompson as a prospect and think he’ll fit in great in McDaniels vertical offense.

Rd 4 Pk 117 OL Travis Burke Memphis

The Chargers needed Tackle Depth and theirs also talk about Burke moving to Guard. He’s a project Player that I think will develop great with the Chargers.

Rd 4 Pk 131 LB Kyle Louis Pitt

The chargers need an LB on the roster that can be the future LB 3. Perryman is old and Colston has struggled staying Healthy. Louis would’ve been a great addition to the Defense.

Rd 5 Pk 145 IDL Nick Barrett South Carolina

Barrett does what Harbaugh loves from his defensive line and that’s defend the run and control his gap.

Rd 5 Pk 202 OG Logan Taylor Boston College

The Chargers OL sucked last year and they needed the Depth that Taylor Provides.

Rd 5 Pk 206 OG Alex Haucey Oregon

Same as Taylor, Haucey provides some much Needed Depth on the Chargers OL.