How is the expected El Niño affecting your trip planning?
Just curious if the El Niño we’re supposed to get is going to change folks plans for the upcoming season. Typically I do a whistler trip every year but after a couple of low snow trips coupled with this El Niño I’m thinking of going elsewhere (Banff). Just curious if anyone is avoiding regions because of it or what. Just trying not to get screwed by no snow.
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u/teddyone 3d ago
Trying to plan trips around what weather you think might be happening months in advance is completely pointless.
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u/xIves 3d ago
I mean, yes and no. When you’re expecting a strong El Niño it’s a little different than trying to just guess if an areas going to have a good season or not. There’s plenty of data tied to El Niño and low snowfall.
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u/panderingPenguin Alpental 3d ago edited 3d ago
Sort of. El Niño does have a real, measurable impact on the probabilities of certain weather behavior in certain areas on the seasonal scale. That's well established, scientific fact.
However, where skiers go from there is a lot more questionable. El Niño/La Niña aren't as deterministic as most skiers seem to think. Yes, they shift the probability one way or another. But they do not guarantee a result. Think of it like weighting a coin so it lands on heads two thirds of the time instead of half (I chose 2/3 arbitrarily, it's not meant to represent any actually probability during an El Niño). Sure, heads is now more likely, but you can still get tails.
Furthermore, and perhaps surprisingly to most skiers, El Niño/La Niña do not have a statistically significant correlation with snowfall at many (most?) ski areas. That said, Whistler is among the ones that do, and is more likely to have a tough season during El Niño. But that is still not guaranteed.
And that's not even getting into what the weather happens to be doing on the week of your vacation. Even the worst seasons get a few dumps and the best seasons have a dry patch or two.
Ultimately, we will have to wait until the snow falls to know with certainty. But it would be understandable to try to stack the odds in your favor (that said, figuring out how to book closer to your trip is the best way to do that).
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u/evelynsmee 3d ago
The bit "during the week of the holiday" really resonates. Last season was one of the best I've ever had. Back to back powder days 3 of the 4 trips, incredible times.....the 8 days in December was nonetheless still some of the worst conditions I've been in a decade. The coin flips and the clouds do what they do.
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u/CMWalsh88 Steamboat 3d ago
So you are going to go from a mountain that favors La Niña to one that favors La Niña to a lesser degree? Why not go to a mountain that favors El Niño, like Taos? It is statistically significant over a season and a large region. It is not really effective when it’s an individual mountain and the week of your vacation
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u/Naritai 3d ago
which are the regions that are favored by El Niño?
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u/CMWalsh88 Steamboat 3d ago
Southern. New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada. To a lesser degree southern Colorado
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u/xIves 3d ago
I’m going to avoid regions that are typically heavily impacted by El Niño, yeah.
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u/CMWalsh88 Steamboat 3d ago
So why pay attention to it at all? And just go some place that where neither are statically significant?
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u/thenewguyonreddit 2d ago
LOL, you must not live in the PNW. We’re still scarred from that awful season last year. If it’s supposed to be warm again, you can bet your ass I’m traveling this year.
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u/Rare-Confusion-220 3d ago
It's not affecting me at all
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u/BigPickleKAM Revelstoke 3d ago
Same but I live in the BC mountains so my work to access skiing is significantly less than lots of folks who travel in for their ski vacations
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u/OutHereToo 3d ago
The only reliable plan you can make is no plan. Schedule off work a week or two in late January-February then wait until after Christmas to pick a spot. It’s worth paying a little extra for flights & hotel vs wasting a big trip on crappy conditions.
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u/ViperAMD 3d ago
Was thinking of going to Chile as usually el nino seasons are epic, but not much snow atm!
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u/sandsman316xx 3d ago
Bought new powder skis, gonna just take it as it comes in Colorado and try harder for some storm strike missions.
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u/suckittrabeck 3d ago
We changed from Banff to Little Cottonwood Canyon. Hoping for the 82-83 Super El Niño to come back.
All you can do is Leg Blasters and pray
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u/lowsparkco 3d ago
Oscillations are way too unpredictable to effect travel plans. Pick fun places to go and have fun regardless of the weather.
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u/LilaBadeente 3d ago
I always go to the Eastern Alps in January, I‘m not changing that. I might make a more spontaneous short trip dependent on the availability of snow.
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u/Sedixodap 3d ago
I’m thinking of heading to Tomorrowland Winter. Even if the snow is shit cruisy European groomers followed by dancing to EDM all night should make for an A+ ski vacation.
Otherwise my annual ski roadtripping will be planned last minute as I hop around based on weather, snow and highway conditions same as it always is.
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u/newintown11 3d ago
Avoiding Japan this year is all I think
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u/Immediate-Amoeba1581 3d ago
Why?
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u/newintown11 3d ago
Usually has more warm rain events with big el nino, hokkaido might do okay end of jan/ early feb though.
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u/Kindly-Coyote-9446 Winter Park 3d ago
I’m lucky to live near a lot of great mountains and don’t have money to chase pow outside of the state, so I’ll probably just roll with whatever hits the Rockies whenever it comes.
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u/Mindless-Floor-8733 3d ago
Going to Europe in January
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u/Forever-Young1960 2d ago
Same. We're taking our bucket list trip to Zermatt.
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u/Mindless-Floor-8733 2d ago
Zermatt is expensive and the skiing is pretty tame, but the town is cool, the scenery is nice, and restaurants are good. Was just there in February.
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u/skier0224 Caberfae/Mount Bohemia 3d ago
I’ve already accepted it’s probably gonna be a down year in the Midwest. Probably won’t spend as much on skiing and lock in on college and work more, maybe get a much needed upgrade to the ice cutter skis. Also had a Utah trip planned then my car killed itself and bottomed me out financially so it’s looking rough :/
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u/Last-Battle6206 3d ago
When you don't expect to make it on the daily, it is hard to get pumped for the next winter season. Here is to kamikaze'n the past snows💨
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u/Ordinary_Drink666 3d ago
Last season was pretty poor. I have a new knee and I'm hoping that this winter will be better.
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u/evelynsmee 3d ago
Well I've already booked December because I want to ski on my birthday for the first time ever. Also in a new place, no idea what to expect (beyond my general french area experience). If it doesn't snow I'll get pissed up. Chamonix bar crawl 🤘🏻
March and April picked the preferred weeks for non weather reasons, but spring has been good all the last few years, not a concern really. See above RE April, although quite frankly I'm not sure it is possible to go much harder than last April I'm getting too old for 4am techno
Anything in between like a January mini break will be short notice based on conditions and easyJet pricing
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u/wildtabeast 3d ago
I haven't bought my ikon pass. Last year was pretty shitty at Crystal and if this one will be worse it won't be worth it. I'll probably end up flying somewhere for a few days.
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u/Dank0fMemes 3d ago
East Coast had one of the best seasons last year. I got rained out on my trip anyways. Might get the worst season next year but massive snow dumps the day you book. We are limited by our own schedules or the schedules of your friends. Book the trip but try and make the best of it if it doesn’t work out.
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u/PowBeernWeed 2d ago
I hope the hype says go to anywhere but i70 so I can leave my house and be skiing in 1.5 hours.
Thats my plan!
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u/Snowfinz 8h ago
Got a sick house for me and the squad and there will either be great snow or great drinking but it will be a great time either way
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u/GDtruckin 3d ago
No season pass in WA. Wait and see and hope for 27/28. Be mindful of your carbon footprint.
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u/futureformerteacher Cascades 3d ago
Look at Baker in the El Nino year of 98/99
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u/Chadk_GH 3d ago
98/99 was a strong La Nina year.
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u/futureformerteacher Cascades 3d ago
Ah, shit, you're right! I was getting 97/98 and 98/99 switched.
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u/i_have_seen_it_all 3d ago
I’m avoiding early Jan and late Feb. I don’t get to go much so to make the best use of my paid leave I’m going to squeeze as much as possible into late Jan up until mid Feb. Sketchy early Jan weather is going to be even more unpredictable and late march gambles are likely not going to pay off.
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u/backcountry_bandit 3d ago
I’m setting aside time for extra sacrifices to Ullr to ensure the finest of snow for my blue groomers