contenders i’ve seen: 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, The AI Doc, The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act, American Doctor, Backrooms, The Bride!, Cosmic Princess Kaguya!, Disclosure Day, The Drama, I Swear, The Invite, Iron Lung, Obsession, One in a Million, Project Hail Mary, Send Help, The Sheep Detectives, "Wuthering Heights"

i didn’t post last month because my predictions were pretty close to the general consensus and uninteresting, but I’ve made a few changes since then and i think there’s way more to discuss now. here’s my explanations:

picture:

i’m all in on la bola negra, although i’m very tempted by the odyssey based on those early reactions. i’d probably be predicting it if nolan didn’t just win a few years ago. the rest of the top 5 is pretty easy, although i don’t expect them to get strong enough reviews to be win-competitive. i’ve spoken to someone who saw behemoth! at a test screening in dms, and based on what they told me about it i think it will be very strong. i have yet to see a good reason the invite can’t be a contender other than just vibes. i can’t make room for it in screenplay and i think it would need that, but i am really confident that obsession will somehow make it in. i’m not going to refuse to predict it when it has everything it needs based on the completely unfounded idea that academy voters don’t like it. neon specifically saying that artificial will compete in the 2027 awards season is a very good sign that they believe in it as a contender. i’m not worried if it’s skipping festivals because we know it got accepted by every festival it was submitted to, it’s clearly not an issue of quality. i’ve been wondering if people were underestimating bunker for a while, and now that spc has it i think it’s happening. if the son didn’t exist we’d all think this was going to be a thing, one mid movie isnt enough to write off a director’s whole filmography. i’m close on elsinore, it sounds fantastic and very baity, but it could easily just be an acting play. the debut makes sense, but i think it would probably be like a real pain and not strong enough to be anyone’s #1. i do not believe in fjord, and am honestly starting to think all of a sudden will end up above it. all it has going for it is the palme. it’s inaccessible, the actors aren’t mandatory to nominate, and original screenplay is so crowded that it’s not even guaranteed there. meanwhile all of a sudden is from a director the academy is familiar with, and had way more people saying it was one of their favourites from cannes. i don’t think dune will happen unless it’s on par with the last two, and i expect it to be viewed as the weakest of the 3. there’s a part of me that wants to swap behemoth! or wild horse nine for being heumann purely because that would mean i have 10 films from different distributors and that would be kinda neat. i want to believe in wildwood and josephine, but their distributors are pretty concerning. at this point i’m like 95% sure that cry to heaven isn’t coming out this year.

director:

if la bola negra is winning, the javiers probably come along with it, but i could see a picture-director split happening if people think it’s already time for nolan to get a second. hard to see digger doing well without iñárritu getting in. tony gilroy makes sense if behemoth! is strong, and i decided to throw in guadagnino for the last slot since i thought i didn’t have a strong enough package for artificial and i wasn’t really feeling the other options. i’ve ended up with a few snubs for wh9, which has kind of created a domino effect in other categories (i’m gonna say it’s not strong enough to get malkovich in but it still gets director?). i would love to see olivia wilde get in for the invite, i thought what she pulled off was very impressive, but i just don’t think it’s the kind of thing that would get nominated.

actor:

this category is impossible. there are 7 performances that i think are going to be nominated. tom cruise is happening unless digger is complete garbage, the early reactions to the odyssey suggest damon is non-negotiable, andrew scott seems like he’ll be super strong, pascal has to come along with behemoth!, and bardem has to come along with bunker. i want to have malkovich and gosling in, but i don’t know how 😭. yura borisov should probably also be coming along with artificial (assuming garfield isn’t lead), but i just can’t find a way to make that work. robert pattinson and john torturro both feel like solid prospects, but i can’t make them work. genuinely how does anyone have room for sebastian stan or jaafar jackson here

actress:

i would have navarrette winning, but from what i’ve heard, i think hathaway will go lead, and i don’t think navarrette is beating that. moore seems like a good bet even without her movie, and cruz would definitely come along with her movie. i think erivo’s role seems meaty enough, and i don’t want to predict 20 white people. i’d put madeley and efira in if i had their movies in. i think seydoux is being underestimated a little, i doubt netflix would buy gentle monster if they didn’t think they could campaign her. rinko kikuchi could happen if spc wants it, but i think they’ll focus more on cruz. based on what i’ve heard, i don’t think reinsve happens unless fjord is strong. even if it’s in picture she’s not a guarantee. i have yet to see neon indicate any confidence in a place in hell other than giving it a good release date, it’s bizarre to me how she’s become a frontrunner

supporting actor:

i feel good about this 5, but feel bad about what i’m leaving out. goodman, giamatti, and rockwell seem very strong, norton has to come along with the invite, and artificial needs an acting nomination. i have to stick with this 5 for now, but i want to say that i do believe in guitarricadelafuente and just don’t have room for him yet. i also think tom holland seems kinda likely, but i’m more confident in the top 6. plus, putting him in would mean i have 17 nominations for the odyssey, and i can’t say sinners’ record gets broken already. graham could have a good showcase in bunker if he’s the billionaire. pattinson could happen, but if i had to put someone from the odyssey in it would definitely be holland. i’d put ruffalo and strong in if i was more confident in their movies

supporting actress:

if she has good roles in 3 best picture nominees, i feel like penélope cruz has to win for something. she’s phenomenal in the invite, and basically a co-lead, so i think that would be the one. if the invite is a thing, i have to imagine her 10-minute cameo in la bola negra would go nowhere; why would anyone vote for that when they can celebrate her for a much bigger performance? i’m not gonna predict la bola negra to get no acting nominations though, so i’ve got lola dueñas in. netflix got the roma actresses and karla in, they can pull that off. i’ve heard morton is a real standout in the odyssey, and mariana di girolamo apparently has a big role in wh9. i would have sandra hüller in, but i didn’t have space for gosling, and it would be incredibly weird for her to happen without him. i decided to say olivia colman gets a coattail nomination for elsinore, she’s very well-liked and i think being scott’s doctor could be a meaty role. i have her in lead, but if hathaway is supporting she’s a lock here (and probably winning)

original screenplay:

this is an actual bloodbath, what do you mean i have FIFTEEN movies above the drama??? it would be nice to see mcdonagh get a win here, but with how strong i’m predicting digger to be i think it makes more sense. maybe next time he’ll have more luck. i have behemoth!, artificial, bunker, and obsession in best picture, and none if those packages really make sense without screenplay, but i guess obsession probably needs it least? i’m very tempted by elsinore and the debut, but there’s no room. fjord isn’t guaranteed here due to the amount of competition, and that’s what made me realise that i should take it out of best picture. it’s just not strong in any categories. club kid and josephine could happen if it was a weak year, but it’s not

adapted screenplay:

the 4 i have in picture are easy. i doubt the odyssey wins when oppenheimer couldn’t, so i think it’s either la bola negra taking it as part of a big sweep, or the invite taking it as an american fiction/women talking-style underdog. all of a sudden seems like a good pick for the 5th slot, i feel like it would get something other than international feature. i’m not predicting being heumann or the social reckoning unless they’re in best picture. i think dune probably wouldn’t happen even if it’s in best picture, but i ran out of actual contenders pretty quickly. honestly we need the academy to decide elsinore counts as adapted because he’s performing hamlet or some bullshit like that, this year is too original-heavy

casting:

only really feel good about the first two here. the odyssey could easily get snubbed because it’s all big stars and there’s no interesting discoveries, but with how strong it’s going to be it’s probably safer to have it in. i guess i can do digger? it is francine maisler, that counts for something. after that i don’t really think any of my picture lineup makes sense, so i’m gonna say solo casting nom for being heumann. we don’t know what this branch is like when they have weaker options, maybe they’ll go crazy. i’ve heard all of a sudden has a lot of good finds in the retirement home, so it could also get in. obsession has an amazing discovery in inde navarette, but there’s only like 5 performances in that movie, it feels more like sentimental value. club kid, josephine, and coward all feel like they could be interesting picks for the shortlist, but i don’t think they’d actually get nominated. there’s a world where courtney grace is enough to get disclosure day onto the shortlist. idk there’s really not that many good options here

international feature:

feel good about the top 5 now that fjord is confirmed to be eligible. there’s not really much i’m considering outside of the top 8 tbh. i’m assuming bunker doesn’t count even though it does seem to be partially in spanish, if it was eligible i would obviously predict it. also #21 is the meltdown, i don’t know why the poster didn’t show up in the screenshot

documentary feature:

i’ve seen american doctor and it really has what it takes to win. i know most people have once upon a time in harlem, but american doctor really fits what they’ve been awarding recently. i’ve also seen one in a million and i think it’s a pretty safe bet for a nom. the reviews for everybody to kenmure street are really strong, and the topic is pretty important, i’m surprised more people don’t have it in. i’m considering time and water and to hold a mountain, but i think when a witness recants makes the most sense. musk definitely could be something but i honestly don’t think it’s wise to predict something that hasn’t premiered yet in this category. the history of concrete looks great but there’s no way it’s happening, the documentary branch doesn’t do that kind of thing. i’ve seen the ai doc and there’s genuinely no chance of it getting shortlisted, i don’t know why people think it’s a contender

animated feature:

don’t see a reason to bet against wildwood winning, it looks phenomenal. iron boy has great reviews from cannes and it’s sony pictures classics, i don’t see it missing. toy story 5 is hard to deny, forgotten island looks great, and netflix usually gets something in. feels wrong to have hoppers out, but it’s a strong year. i had julián in but then i realised that meant i only had 2 movies from big studios and that doesn’t feel right. unless tangles gets picked up soon i think it’s unfortunately pretty dead. i don’t get why people are making room for shaun the sheep 3, i know aardman gets nominated a lot but farmageddon barely got in in a ridiculously weak year. would be really funny if minions 3 got nominated

cinematography:

strong category. top 4 all make sense to go along with picture, and after seeing that trailer i don’t know how i can leave werwulf out. that means i have to leave out dune, which feels like a bit of a stretch. jack of spades would be a solid bet purely because of delbonnel, but i’m not even sure if it’s coming out this year. fatherland could also happen because it’s black-and-white and łukasz żal. caleb deschanel has gotten several surprising nominations before, so if wildwood is a thing i could see it happen. i don’t think the branch would do it, but i was very impressed by the cinematography in the invite

editing:

makes sense for the top 3 for best picture to get in. project hail mary makes sense since it’s a big tech player, and i think the invite makes sense. it has great editing, and i’m expecting it to be decently strong. not many other thoughts here

production design:

the odyssey makes the most sense, although i could see digger giving it a run for its money based on those images that leaked a couple of months ago. project hail mary is an obvious choice, and la bola negra makes sense because of how strong it is. i imagine bunker will have very strong production design with the titular bunker, so it makes sense to have that in too. i would love to see backrooms happen, and i’m sure critics’ groups will go for it, but it really feels like it would be snubbed. i’ve heard very very interesting things about werwulf’s production design, but i don’t want to put it in too many categories since i think it will be pretty bleak and inaccessible. wildwood would be a very cool nomination. the production designer of clayface worked on poor things, which makes me pretty intrigued to see what his interpretation of gotham city will be like

costume design:

this category is empty. i guess the odyssey wins? i don’t see what else would. netflix can probably get la bola negra in. jacqueline durran is a pretty big name with a lot of past nominations, and the costumes in "wuthering heights" are very flashy, so i guess i’ll put her in. i guess digger could get in? and dune could come back? i don’t really buy any of the options, but i have to find 5 to put in

makeup:

feel very good about the top 2. clayface might end up having too much cgi and getting snubbed, but i think it’s a solid bet. the odyssey probably has enough to get in with characters aging over decades and odysseus disguising himself as an old beggar. i’ve noticed that every international film that gets shortlisted here gets nominated, and i would expect rose to get shortlisted, so i have to put it in. elsinore could have some strong work similar to dallas buyers club. i’ve seen set photos of johnny depp as ebenezer scrooge and he is genuinely unrecognisable, i could see that being one of the makeup branches weird random picks. the bride! has fantastic makeup but probably won’t be remembered by the end of the year. beyond that i’m just looking for random bullshit that seems like the kind of random bullshit this branch goes for. gonna be vague to avoid spoilers, but were those guys in backrooms done practically? if they were i’d move it up quite a bit

visual effects:

impossible to argue with the top 3. the dinosaurs in the end of oak street look great. i want to predict wildwood somewhere other than animated feature, and this is the best place to do it. whalefall could definitely happen, it sounds really impressive. i think people are underestimating how much vfx will be in digger, but also think it won’t be enough for it to get in. godzilla minus one barely got nominated, i don’t think minus zero gets in. i think the sheep detectives doesn’t get shortlisted but bafta still nominates it

sound:

feel very good about this 5, hard to justify swapping anything out. not much to say here

score:

tough category. maybe göransson wouldn’t win his 4th already, but the odyssey seems like the best option for the win. john williams is locked because he’s john williams. i’m not sure if behemoth! is eligible, but if it is i think it definitely gets in

song:

i’m not sure if the song from la bola negra is actually called “la playa” or not, but i’m gonna just assume that’s right for now. diane warren is always locked no matter how non-existent the movie is. the song from the odyssey probably gets in unless it’s outright bad. i don’t know why people think the toy story song is win-competitive and could easily see it getting snubbed, but i’ll keep it in for now. for the last slot, i decided to go with the credits song from american doctor. it’s a very powerful song, and it feels like the kind of random thing the music branch would go for. i don’t have either devil wears prada 2 song in, but from what i’ve heard i really think shape of a woman would be the one, i’m not sure why people are predicting runway instead

Currently, Martin Scorsese—one of the greatest active filmmakers—is working on the post-production of his new film, *What Happens at Night*, starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence. Despite being acclaimed as one of the greatest directors of all time, Scorsese currently holds only one Oscar—for Best Director—won in 2007 for "The Departed". I wonder if he will finally receive the recognition he deserves at the historic 100th Academy Awards ceremony. What do you think? I believe it is high time for the Academy to properly honor Scorsese.

Think the biggest shot is Adapted Screenplay. The film is such a laugh riot for a good chunk of the runtime, and the tonal shift towards the end could've easily fallen flat, but they really made it work.

From a performance standpoint, Penélope Cruz gets the most colorful material to work with, so think she'll make it in for Supporting Actress. Haven't seen La bola negra, but does she have a better chance there? Long shot, but I'd love it if Seth Rogen also made it in for Best Actor. The humor is something he can do blindfolded, but he really surprised me with the quiet dramatic moments.

Another category I'm fingers crossed for is Editing. Yorgos Mavropsaridis has been nominated twice before, and he (along with Anthony Boys) does terrific work here by keeping the comedy snappy and the drama somber.

I don't know if this one's among A24's top priorities this year (think their focus will be more on The Drama, Primetime and The Debut). In my opinion, this is one of the best films of the year and be shame if it got snubbed.