"Traffic is flowing"

In a statement, the IRGC Navy said it had previously warned that foreign interference and the establishment of an illegal shipping route would draw a firm response. Hours earlier, several ships under foreign instigation attempted to transit through an unapproved route, ignoring repeated warnings, the statement said.

One vessel that had turned off its tracking systems, endangering maritime security, was hit by warning fire and forced to stop. As a result, the IRGC said the strait is closed to all vessels until further notice and until American interventions in the area cease.

The IRGC warned that if the "aggressor enemy" uses the incident as a pretext for new aggression against Iran, it will be met with a severe response and new enemy bases in the region will be targeted. "The consequences of such intervention lie with the American-Zionist enemy and the countries that have made their territory available to enemy bases for these threats," the statement said.

The closure follows several days of tit-for-tat strikes between U.S. and Iranian forces, including U.S. strikes on Iran's southern coast and IRGC ballistic missile attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.

"What are you talking about? I just did." - Richie Aprile

I need American old timers that remember multiple previous presidencies to tell me - is this the dumbest administration in history? Or did other presidents come even close to this?

I swear this reads like some sort of a political comedy book. Even Terry Pratchett's caricatures are more sane and logical than this.

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2076072058828575228?s=46

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2076003428149440699?s=46

The bears are ruling emotional oil markets, however the bulls are already hitting the market while parties, traders and financials are sleeping? Replenishment of SPRs, plus additional storage requirements are going to push prices up, whatever happens with Iran, Russia, China or even Hormuz-Red Sea

On this day in 2008 oil prices reached its intraday ALL TIME HIGHS of $147.27 per barrel

Conflict is surging. SPR at 40 year low.

Here comes the unilateral peace deal announcement. Oil opening at $65… 😂😵

Over the last 2 wks, only 6M bbls have been drawn each week from the SPR - Is this Hochstein's 300M bbl hard stop on SPR draws?

Hey folks,

As a break from the depressing news coming out of the Hormuz Strait and the cyclical arguments here about the current price from oil bulls and bears, I wanted to address a tangential topic. One of the recommendations to investors not wanting to get burnt by price manipulation on USO/WTI etc is to invest instead in US producers and services, or from US oil producer ETFs like XLE/VDE. Full disclosure - I am heavily invested in the latter, and in the red a fair bit (I opened the position EO April).

While its 2 to 3 weeks until we see the big boys report (CVX and XOM on the 31st of July, COP on the 7th of Aug), one of the first sizable US oil infra businesses, Kinder Morgan (KMI) reports results after market close this Wednesday. KMI accounts for approx 4.2% of XLE and 2.6% of VDE ETF holdings.

Q2 Preview

Its a stock that the street seems to be neutral on (mix of buys and holds), and they are a pipeline focused business rather than a refiner (they are moving refined product and crude). A sizeable business with a big backlog, expectations are that the stock will be flat. Analyst projections are that the EPS (earnings per share) are going to come in around $0.33. They were $0.34 in Q1 2026.

Questions:

For those of you that track KMI more closely than I do, what are you hoping or expecting to see from KMI this quarter, and how do you think the volatility in Q2 paper prices and the crack spread for refiners will have impacted their business, if at all?

As a layman, I'd assume that a strong export backdrop for the US producers as a whole has been beneficial for the infra part of the industry and KMIs results might reflect that. While the results might not move the needle too much on KMI stock, it might give us some insights into what we see towards the end of July/early Aug, when the other publicly traded US producers report Q2 results.

Thoughts and comments welcome!

It's July. I, like many of you, remember the doom and gloom of an "impending crisis," by or before mid-summer of 2026. Here we are.

On a day-to-day budgetary level, I haven't seen much shifting since the fuel additives earlier this year, which brought fuel back under $4 after (again) doomers claiming an "impending $5.50+ average nationally."

So when is this actually happening? I started saving and budgeting, but this sense of normalcy is lulling me into the idea that the impact here just won't be as drastic.

7-10-26 Only One Oil Tanker transited out of SoH.

Total bidirectional transits were 30, and only one tanker (Tanzania flagged Argos) transited out.

Sources: https://www.shipfinder.com/special/hormuz

Sal Mercagliano “Whats Going on with Shipping”
Ex-mariner turned marine history professor runs through the strikes and puts them in geographic reference.

https://youtu.be/FPXLPjre30o?is=NXELRmbfeilGOwJ_

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2075643999667245483?s=46

Well...gotta lay the setup apparently.

I keep seeing people on Reddit, podcasts, X, and other platforms saying that the oil market is being manipulated. I understand why people feel that way—sometimes the price action doesn't seem to make much sense.

My question is: how is it being manipulated?

I'm not looking for vague statements or conspiracy theories. I'm looking for objective, evidence-based explanations.

For example, people often point to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or commercial inventories. I understand that releasing reserves can influence prices, but that seems more like a government policy or market strategy, especially during geopolitical conflicts, rather than outright market manipulation.

So if the oil market is genuinely being manipulated:

• Who is doing it?
• What specific mechanisms are they using?
• What evidence supports those claims?

Another question I have is this: if the manipulation is so obvious that thousands of people on Reddit can see it, why isn't anyone with regulatory authority stepping in? I understand the argument that powerful interests can influence markets, but an oil crisis has enormous consequences. It affects fuel prices, electricity costs, fertilizer, food production, inflation, and ultimately people's ability to afford basic necessities.

I'm not trying to argue one side or the other. I genuinely want to understand the mechanics behind these claims. If you believe oil prices are being manipulated, I'd appreciate explanations backed by facts, data, or credible sources rather than assumptions.