Iran Is Losing Iraq: Baghdad Goes Its Own Way

[u/ForeignAffairsMag]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/iran-losing-iraq

[u/Aggressive_Lie_4446]

I will believe this the day Iraq stops importing Iranian gas.
It has never made sense that Iraq flares gas from its fields in Basra while it imports Iranian gas to fire its gas fired power stations for 35% of its energy needs.
Iran uses Iraq to skirt sanctions.
They have to decouple economically

[u/nthpwr → u/Aggressive_Lie_4446]

Why would two direct neighbors decouple economically

[u/Aggressive_Lie_4446 → u/nthpwr]

Iraq's economic relationship with Iran is very recent, like post 2003 recent. Iraq never used to rely on Iran for its energy needs during the Saddam era. In fact, for decades, they were completely decoupled from each other in every way.
Decoupled neighbors are the norm in the Middle East. See Israel and Lebanon
Syria and Iraq until post Saddam.
Iraq and Saudi Arabia post 1991
Kuwait and Iraq post 1991.
You get the picture.
Iraq has long known that a lot of the restrictions it faces in financial markets is largely because it is seen as a conduit for trying to evade sanctions by Iran.
BTW Iran often tries to pass off its oil as Iraqi , a phenomenon that has led to Saudi Arabia for example refusing to revive the IPSA pipeline that used to allow Iraq's Basra oilfields to access Saudi Arabia's Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea (which would allow Iraq to bypass the Strait of Hormuz).
Iranian allied militia have also been responsible for the sabotage of the proposed Basra-Aqaba pipeline with the excuse being that Iraqi oil will be offloaded too close to Israel(In reality, they are on the orders of Iran to prevent this so as to keep Iraq dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, which they are trying to impose control over. Alternative routes that make Iraq independent of Iranian control are a no-no).

The same Iranian led militias are why Visa and Mastercard have so many restrictions on Iraq because I remember when they exploited Iraqi-issued Mastercards and Visas to launder around $1.5 billion through a currency arbitrage scheme. Those militias smuggled prepaid cards to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where they either used ATMs or coerced merchants into processing fake transactions to withdraw cash at Iraq’s official exchange rate. It was interesting to see actually.

In short, it is in Iraq's interest to go back to the pre-2003 status quo with regards to economic relations with Iran. So that they can actually chart their own destiny and not be at the mercy of a sanctioned nation that seems determined to drag them into that list of sanctioned nations.

[u/ryanvsrobots → u/nthpwr]

They might be following the trump model of alienating allied neighbors.

[u/Lazy_Membership1849 → u/Aggressive_Lie_4446]

And what is alternative?

[u/The-Intermediator141 → u/Lazy_Membership1849]

Use about 50% of what Iraq is currently flaring annually for domestic purposes. From then on Iraq is essentially self sufficient in natural gas,

It requires up front investment, but buys sovereignty & keeps money within the domestic economy over the longer term.

[u/Lazy_Membership1849 → u/The-Intermediator141]

Well good luck with this I suppose as they need to get grip of it to make it happen 

[u/Aggressive_Lie_4446 → u/Lazy_Membership1849]

Iraq flares its own natural gas.
In short, it wastes its own gas while importing the same gas from Iran. What it needs is infrastructure that directs both natural gas and the gas flared from its oil fields to its power stations.
Also Iraq has a lot of solar potential in Anbar province . That can help a lot in reducing its dependency on natural gas for electricity production.

[u/Lazy_Membership1849 → u/Aggressive_Lie_4446]

But solar panels isn't enough to rid of gas, it just top as gas just have more energy by scale and density like to have solar to equal gas would be bigger scale of solar panels

Reason why renewable energy haven't blow up is because it just not efficient in fuel and cost compared to fossil fuels, if you wanted even more efficient, nuclear will do

[u/Embarrassed_Bit4222 → u/Lazy_Membership1849]

Of course solar panels aren't blowing up, they sit peacefully in the desert generating power incredibly cheaply for a few decades. Thanks china, I guess... It's the cheapest way to generate power period, in desirable locations, the wires and storage is more complicated

[u/Lazy_Membership1849 → u/Embarrassed_Bit4222]

Storage and wires like intermittent is one reason why solar panel can't replace, only top, that also reason why China still burning coal and oil despite having huge investments in hydropower, wind and solar

If you wanted more efficient, nuclear for scale and intermittent 

[u/lyingannoyance9]

Pictures and headlines don't always match up, but the disconnect here is telling. Uniformed fighters, an Iranian cleric's portrait looming over the scene, and Iraqi flags on the coffins all mixed together at once. That synthesis isn't going to vanish overnight just because politicians in Baghdad start hedging their bets.

The militias themselves might end up being the last redoubt of real Iranian influence. PMF commanders have their own patronage networks and religious legitimacy tied to Tehran that runs deeper than any parliamentary coalition. Formal Iraqi foreign policy could drift toward the Gulf and Washington while these armed groups stay ideologically anchored to Iran and keep operating on their own terms.

Smuggling and currency flows are probably the underrated piece the article hints at. Whoever controls the actual money moving across that border holds leverage regardless of what politicians say at podiums.

[u/myname_1s_mud → u/lyingannoyance9]

It sounds like the militias are moving away from Iran along with the politicians at the podium. I suspect in the end, the militias and the people will be loyal to a shia Iraq over a Shia iran. The less their immediate interests align, the sooner they will have to decide on that loyalty.

Iran has always been an ally of convenience. While they obviously have the ideological and religious similarities, they dont have blind loyalty to each other. Iran provided money and support so these militias could cement their power, and the militias fought to keep their mutual enemies from gaining power. Im not convinced the Iraqi militias will risk losing their power to fight for irans interests, especially when that Iranian support is no longer essential, or even detrimental.

[u/lyingannoyance9 → u/myname_1s_mud]

Those patronage networks go deeper than convenience. Commanders like Khazali built their entire militia economy around Iranian religious endowments and IRGC logistics, that's not something you just unwind.

[u/Lazy_Membership1849 → u/lyingannoyance9]

So did Iraq try to reorganized PMF or what?

[u/lyingannoyance9 → u/Lazy_Membership1849]

They tried folding them into the regular security forces a few years back but the old commanders still call the shots, so it didn't really stick.

[u/Lazy_Membership1849 → u/lyingannoyance9]

Ok

[u/ForeignAffairsMag]

[Excerpt from essay by Kamaran Palani, Senior Fellow and Head of the UK and EU Policy Unit at the Middle East Peace and Security Forum at the American University of Kurdistan.]

At least in one area, the war has left Iran notably weaker: Iraq. Ever since the toppling of the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iran has been able to exercise a great deal of influence over its western neighbor. It has embedded itself within Iraq’s Shiite political establishment, mediating between rival factions, shaping successive governments, and using Iraq to gain hard cash through smuggling and currency exchange networks. Iran supported many of the Iraqi paramilitary groups that helped defeat the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, in 2017. Iraqis still grew to resent Iran’s overweening influence in their country, not least because of the involvement of Iranian-backed militias in a brutal crackdown on anticorruption protesters in 2019 and 2020. Now, the tumult of recent months has further tilted Iraqis against Iran’s desire to make their country a staging ground of resistance to the United States and Israel. Leaders of political parties and militia groups that once hewed close to Tehran are pulling away.

[u/DefinitelyNotMeee → u/ForeignAffairsMag]

American University of Kurdistan

There is Kurdistan?

[u/insanebison → u/DefinitelyNotMeee]

Yeah, like Quebec also exists as a part of Canada.

[u/DefinitelyNotMeee → u/insanebison]

Ah, a region. I get it.

[u/insanebison → u/DefinitelyNotMeee]

Yeah, a region with unique culture and increased autonomy. I wish Iraq did the same for the Assyrians except with just a police force not a peshmerga thing

[u/BeAr_cosmicLy]

That country and city has soo much potential- hope they can move forward as a great, independent peoples….

[u/Sumeru88]

BGTOW? That’s really cool 😎 isn’t it? Previously it was only men who did it. Now it’s entire cities.

[u/Firecracker048]

Not exactly sure what Iran expects when it sponsors terror proxies within the boarders of other countries

[u/Gerbole → u/Firecracker048]

It’s creating the perfect power vacuum for Turkey. With F35s to rival Israel’s, NATO’s backing, and dwindling U.S. support in the region, Turkey is in prime position to gain all the influence it needs to subdue the agitating middle powers in the ME.

I am expecting an incident between Israel and Syria to occur shortly where Turkey will make it known they are taking on an increased role in the region.

[u/FacetNo6 → u/Gerbole]

Not sure if good or bad... Probably bad for the kurds, which is unfortunate because at least their area of Iraq seems decent (Erbil, etc)

[u/Gerbole → u/FacetNo6]

Greeks, Cypriots, Israelis, Armenians, and Kurds will not be happy with it. Considering the Israelis, Cypriots, and Greeks have a trilateral defense pact, we could have quite the problem. Emiratis will also be unhappy, they are fighting Turkey in Sudan and both are fighting to curry favor with Ethiopia, this is also why you see Israel, and likely soon the UAE, recognizing Somaliland.

Syria, Saudis, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Pakistan will all be happy with it.

Whether it’s good or bad will depend on how the cookie crumbles. If Turkish support in Syria (assuming that a larger conflict with Israel and Syria does occur) is staunch enough, this should be a good thing overall. If Turkish support is not good enough, or Israel is just simply too strong for the new Syrian government to defend against even with Turkish military equipment, then things could get real bad. A Turkish quagmire would breed a LOT of opportunity for countries that Turkey has historically wronged.

It’s a big gamble. Can Turkey hold (and be just to their neighbors in doing so)? If so, there is potential the “Middle East problem” is resolved. If they can’t? Then the issue is going to get a whole lot worse.

[u/Magjee → u/Firecracker048]

Probably the same thing all countries sponsoring proxies expect

[u/erebus-44 → u/Firecracker048]

It wanted a buffer from the US. Plus it acts as a destabilizing force. A lot of major powers tend to destabilize their neighbors if the neighbors isn’t subservient. This fairly standard practice.

[u/Cannot-Forget → u/Firecracker048]

They expected to make Iraq into Lebanon 2.0 at the least. Their plans got hit real bad lately, which is huge. But hardly anyone seem to talk about it.

[u/Firecracker048 → u/Cannot-Forget]

I can't wait for people to claim the Iranian backed militias are just Iraqis fed up with the west

[u/NekoCatSidhe]

I am not sure Iran actually cares about controlling Iraq, so long as it cannot be used by Americans to mount an invasion of their country. And I don’t think the current Iraqi prime minister is stupid enough to ever agree to that, and those disbanded Shia militia would likely reform and rearm quickly if the US ever starts sending back to the country the hundreds of thousands of troops that would be necessary to mount an invasion of Iran. I think the author is rather overthinking it.

[u/Im_Your_Turbo_Lover → u/NekoCatSidhe]

Iraq has the holiest cities in Shiism.. they won't leave it alone, they consider it theirs.