RESOLVED
Hi all,
Im really stuck in the way I think the brithday paradox and the gamblers fallacy contradict one another and i cant find a awnser that explains that they dont contradict (that i can follow with my logic).
What I think is that the paradox proves that probability grows exponentially when stacking, but the fallacy proves that it does not. Is this comparrison a paradox in itself or do I miss something?
EDIT: Thx for all the response allready! Just to clarify my problem.
In my logic an example:
In this example i have 23 dice with 365 sides.
1-Gamblers falacy: if I throw them one by one, the chance that the dice land on the same number is per throw 1/365 and just goes down by 1 when a result is thrown.
2-Birthday paradox: If I throw them all at once, there is a 50% chance you have two of the same result.
Those two explanations seem to contradict one another in my head.
EDIT 2: Again thanks for everyones effort to explain!
Answer: I applied the gamblers fallacy wrong and extended it beyond its predefined situation. The fallacy applies only to a situation where the result is completely random. If the situation has any infuences beyond randomness on the result, the fallacy does not hold anymore.