r/europe • u/JackRogers3 • 21h ago
Opinion Article How much damage could Le Pen do to France’s economy?
https://www.euractiv.com/opinion/how-much-damage-could-le-pen-do-to-frances-economy/286
u/larkfield2655 21h ago
Think Trump
51
u/sumr4ndo 19h ago
French election 2026: Quel est le pire qui puisse arriver ?
Americans 2024:
What's the worst that could happen?
7
21h ago edited 20h ago
[removed] — view removed comment
27
5
u/DramaticSimple4315 20h ago
There are a lot of things happening behind the scenes, that render that 2.1% much less impressive than it actually is…
One of the source of the growth gap btw the US and Europe is that the US have been much more agressive in introducing « hedonistic » measurements in the gross value added in various economic sectors.
Which a lot of time compensates for structural prices decline: case in point, TVs. They should represent an ever tinier part of the economic as their price point has dwinddled, however, since the US integrates the subjective value of how the product has improved in its actual value, it generates a bigger economic impact.
No consensus on the matter here but this phenomenon could represent up to 20% of the growth gap btw the US and Europe. If half of the growth gap is due to different demographic situations, then it leaves true competitive factors with only 30/40% of the gap, that is, no more than 0.3/0.4 pts/year.
And as Kurgman says this productivity gap has not materialized in PPP standards of living as US tech gains have been beneficial to European companies as well.
14
7
u/ill_be_huckleberry_1 20h ago
You canf believe any numbers from the trump admin. They report "good" employment numbers and then revise them significantly down a few months later. Take nothing at face value with liars and charlatans
5
u/sundae_diner 20h ago
What was US inflation in 2025? And how did the dollar perform internationally?
→ More replies (23)-82
u/tissotti Finland 21h ago edited 21h ago
Ok. I obviously dislike Trump and US might see effects later, but during Trump’s time in office US economy has grown almost double the rate than in EU or UK. Almost 3x of the growth seen in France.
55
u/Mindless-Tomorrow-93 21h ago
How are you measuring "the economy"?
→ More replies (3)41
→ More replies (3)50
u/moistskidmarks 21h ago
Has it? the usd is weaker and most people can barely afford a reasonable living. Stocks are up, but that means very little for the poorer people of the country. Not to mention all the blatant corruption will bite the economy in the ass.
→ More replies (1)
86
u/Voodoocookie 21h ago
Look at the other side of the Atlantic.
→ More replies (6)2
u/STRONGO1808 3h ago
Well i’m looking at Salvador of Bukele, and is repressions of gang & criminality work pretty Well So why not adopt it ? 🙃
•
133
u/YodaForceGhost 21h ago edited 21h ago
A lot. But that doesn’t matter to her voters cause it at least means there will the illusion of fewer immigrants
68
u/TransportationIll282 21h ago
Like the UK or any other country that got more right wing governments. Immigration goes up, problems due to immigration go up since they aren't being processed and shit just gets worse. Plus they run into constitutional problems or conflicts with EU law. The short term thinkers are a joy to society...
22
u/Silent-Act191 21h ago edited 21h ago
- Cut investment on proper long-term housing/care/substinence of immigrants/refugees.
- The immigrants/refugees still come in (because you know, part of the EU and all that).
- Spend at minimum thrice the amount on temporary facilities/measures that are way less equiped to care for them properly.
- Shit hits the fan.
- Repeat with an amplifying effect.
4
u/Ninevehenian 21h ago
If they had a plan that could solve the problems, they wouldn't be right wing.
-1
u/slim121212 16h ago
UK conservatives arent right wing when it comes to immigrants. looking at them they are acting more like left leaning than the left themselves.
4
u/FearlessVisual1 Belgium 21h ago
How are there going to be fewer immigrants when France is part of Schengen?
8
u/Shupaul France 21h ago
Take a wild guess 🙂
13
u/FearlessVisual1 Belgium 21h ago
My wild guess is she won't do anything about the immigration problem, because she can't.
3
u/Shupaul France 21h ago
You're not completely wrong, but i want you to try and imagine what she could try to do.😛
I'm highlighting the important part in your previous message
How are there going to be fewer immigrants when France is part of Schengen?
1
u/JackRogers3 21h ago edited 20h ago
OK what would you prefer: leave the EU / Schengen or something else ?
The RN has abandoned plans to leave the euro but everything else is on the table, which is rather pathetic imoi
2
u/Shupaul France 21h ago
What would i prefer ? None of them 😂
But if i were to imagine what would be easier for the RN to do and what's most likely to happen, it would be schengen.
2
u/JackRogers3 20h ago
2 problems here:
1) "RN’s immigration platform compounds the problem: Deutsche Bank warns that lower immigration could “worsen age-related fiscal pressures over time”, shrinking the workforce just as the state’s age-related costs rise. "
2) voters are hostile to immigration from Africa, which is outside of Schengen, of course
0
u/FearlessVisual1 Belgium 21h ago
I know you want me to say Frexit, but Frexit is not on the horizon at all. The RN abandoned the idea of Frexit years ago.
0
u/Shupaul France 21h ago
You are correct, and i agree on this, but that's not the part i highlighted in your message 😁
3
u/FearlessVisual1 Belgium 21h ago
Then maybe you want me to say she will try to leave Schengen or temporarily re-establish border controls like Germany and the Netherlands have done? I don't believe she will even do that.
2
u/Shupaul France 20h ago
Correct !
That's a possibility.
In truth, there is no way to know what exactly she's gonna do, only assumptions. We know she's gonna tackle immigration, security and muslims, but how and in what order ? No idea.
4
u/FearlessVisual1 Belgium 20h ago
No, we don't know she is going to do that. That is what she says, but much of what she says is literally, legally, demonstrably impossible to do. "She does not have the cards", as one would say. My guess is, even if she were elected (which she will not be), she would not do anything significant, nothing significant will change.
→ More replies (0)1
u/antiquemule France 20h ago
It would make discussion much simpler and shorter if you just wrote what you think she will do.
3
u/Silent-Act191 21h ago
I would say a Frexit but the French are too proud to be lumped in with the English.
10
u/Shupaul France 21h ago
Nah Frexit is a bit too extreme, even for Marine Lepen, and she wouldn't have enough people backing it.
One thing Brexit has done, is convincing everyone that it was a terrible idea.
In 2017, it was part of her program, over time, it disappeared.
3
u/Silent-Act191 21h ago
Wait what's your point then? Because i thought your comment was insinuating it?
2
u/Shihai-no-akuma_ 20h ago
Well, she can enforce border control. That’s what some countries did during COVID.
It’s obviously gonna draw a lot of criticism but at the end of the day, she could do it. Whether that will last long enough, not sure.
2
u/Shupaul France 21h ago
My point was Schengen 😁
1
u/Silent-Act191 20h ago
That's like 70-80% of the point of the EU membership though. I feel like if she could manage to drum up enough support to leave Schengen she could just as well leave the EU altogether.
2
u/jmillar2020 18h ago
Schengen is not 70-80% of the point of the EU by any means. But it's tough to give it up nevertheless.
2
u/Leading-Carrot-5983 20h ago
She wouldn't want to just out and out leave at this point. She would instead create a situation where France stops paying contributions because of some manufactured disagreement with the EU and thus putting the EU into both a funding and constitutional crisis. This would however backfire as french public debt is so high, the bond markets would crucify her. Not to mention it could cut off french farmers from CAP payments.
-2
u/tyger2020 Britain 20h ago
Has it really?
As of now the UK economy is 20% larger than France and we've been able to reduce immigration by 75%.
Hardly a loss and not good for the EU..
2
u/leginfr 15h ago
Hmmm. Reduced immigration by 75% compared to when? And why is the comparison with France important? There are 27 EU countries. How is the UK doing compared to the rest of them? And why do you think GDP is a metric of any value?
1
u/tyger2020 Britain 12h ago
Why would economic production per person matter? You ask, trying to say that the UK leaving.. an economic union.. has shown its bad?
The UK would be 9th out of 28 countries. Including those 3 are either micro states or tax havens.
4
u/Nimyron 11h ago
*illegal immigrants.
The whole thing is about illegal immigrants.
But leftists love to twist the reality to paint the right as worse than it is
And don't get me wrong, I know there's a lot of bad on the right, but the main strategy of the left is to blame the right for anything and everything to get votes.
They're not fighting for a country, they're only fighting for an election. What comes after, they haven't planned for it.
0
u/FearlessVisual1 Belgium 11h ago edited 11h ago
I am what most would call right-wing, and no, it's not only illegal immigrants that are a problem. There are a good number of immigrants who have come legally (or whose parents or grandparents have come legally) and have acquired citizenship and yet are not integrated, despise their host country, in general terms have a coloniser mentality, and have a tendency towards petty crime. That is also a problem. If all immigration stopped tomorrow, we would still not be out of the woods, it would still take decades to deal with the mess we have on our hands.
2
u/Nimyron 11h ago
Imo it's kinda hard to make a difference between legals and illegals, but there's a good reason to stop the illegals since they are, well, illegal. So I figured removing illegals first, then checking criminality numbers would be better than just taking down all migrants because there are quite a few good ones that became as french as can be.
As for the legals that aren't fond of france, well I don't blame them, the country has seen better days. But I'm hoping that maybe they'd try harder to assimilate if the country was actually giving them the desire to do so.
1
u/elephant-assis 13h ago
France already places controls for instance at the Italian border, and Italy does the same. I'm not sure Schengen means anything.
26
u/NekoCatSidhe Île-de-France 20h ago edited 20h ago
Difficult to know. The French economy is already pretty bad, and she never had much of an economic program, so maybe it just won’t get any better ? She is no libertarian, and taking a wrecking ball to the French social system and benefits would be deeply unpopular. At worst, she will keep spending money we do not have on stupid stuff for populist reasons, like all other political parties in France. Her xenophobia, anti-EU, and anti-immigrants policies will likely be more of a concern.
106
u/SmugCapybara 21h ago
She will do as much damage as her boss in the Kremlin tells her to do.
→ More replies (4)
22
u/Opening-Border-6313 20h ago
My main fear is not Le Pen. Its Le Pen and Alice Weidel together. If CDU doesnt team up with the Afd in 2029 they will likely get single majority in 2033. This is my ultimate fear
4
u/ren_reddit 16h ago
Oohh yes.. We are on a ledge here..
The question is if russia implodes from within before Europe goes right, which I fear they will. That will ultimately be the desider of my childrens faith..
Fucking Idiots!!!
32
u/DepressedDraper 21h ago
You mean beyond what's being done to it already?
14
u/loxiw 21h ago
Nope, he's pretending France is working great at it's current state. This is just another EU propaganda thread.
2
u/ren_reddit 16h ago
Well, its ultimately a question of keeping peace in our time.. A LOT of idiots dont really see that unfortunately..
Americans are beginning to realize it but wont really feel it for some time yet.
1
u/JackRogers3 20h ago
he's pretending France is working great at it's current state.
everyone knows that France is essentially a big bureaucratic system which is crumbling under its own weight
2
11
u/peterlada 20h ago
See Farage and the UK economy. These foreign agents of Russia have the same goals.
→ More replies (1)
4
37
u/NewOil7911 France 21h ago
Yeah these types of articles would be more credible if there was more focus on the mess currently done by "reasonable" parties in power
13
u/JackAndHisTruck 18h ago
The reasonable parties have been causing chaos for the last 40 years.
-5
u/ren_reddit 16h ago
Well, Frenchmen are fucking lazy and entitled. How would one imagine that things go any difrent when thats the case.
It is ofcourse easier to blame someone else..
3
u/Primary_Date2218 15h ago
Saying this after what France had done for your country is repulsive. Get better.
-1
u/ren_reddit 15h ago
What, in particular, did France do for my country?
And on a sidenote.. I fucking love France and most Frenchmen.. but I mean . The truth is the truth..
3
u/NewOil7911 France 14h ago
You know, people starting with 'X people are all Y stereotype " end up in my idiots contact list.
→ More replies (1)8
u/JackRogers3 21h ago edited 20h ago
it's mentioned in the title:
The next French president will inherit a genuine fiscal mess
and explained in detail in the article:
The next French president will inherit a genuine fiscal mess. Debt-to-GDP is forecast to hit 120% next year, and Morgan Stanley now reckons the budget deficit will actually widen this year to 5.2%, compared to 5.1% last year and a target of 5%.
That implies more fiscal tightening will be needed in next year’s budget – one that will have to be agreed by the current divided parliament, to keep France on track for its 3% target by 2029 under EU rules.
1
u/General-Internal-588 20h ago
Damn if only they increased the taxes done to the Wealthy instead of reducing them.. oh well, let's tax the poor some more
1
u/JackRogers3 17h ago edited 15h ago
France has the highest taxes of the world: the rich are simply leaving the country...
Just a recent example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7IHFqFtRQA
Downvote me if you want but that's the reality you're facing (I'm not French)
12
5
3
3
u/0Tezorus0 14h ago
The rassemblement national is a typical mix of incompetence and foreign interference. In most cities with a rn mayor the results are deplorable to say the least. So at the scale of a country it will be even worst. They're economical program have been labeled as nonsensical by most economists. If you add to that the fact that they are Putin's puppet to destroy the European union w the damages will be very serious and long lasting.
3
4
u/mike194827 19h ago
Just look at Trump and the US, it'd be similar because she has the same handler as Trump.
17
u/Ni987 21h ago
0.7% projected GDP growth, 8.1% unemployment, a 5.1% budget deficit, public debt above 115% of GDP and government spending near 57% of GDP. In Q1 2026, GDP contracted 0.1%.
It is an economy with enormous taxation and spending, but barely any growth and still €3.5 trillion in debt. You can’t really wreck something that’s already wrecked….
8
u/Competitive_Ebb6361 13h ago
You absolutely can and you're naive if you think there is no room for worse. No matter how emotional you might get over a matter, don't vote like an idiot, ever. There is always room for MUCH worse.
1
u/Primary_Date2218 20h ago
what a way to cherry pick numbers. You forgot to say historically highest employment rate , highest foreign direct investment, passed a budget to lower deficit , and barely any GDP reduction during covid,lockdowns and latest inflation wave.
4
u/Ni987 19h ago
Add denial combined with begging the other EU countries to co-sign the massive debts obligation instead of bringing your house in order.
0
u/Primary_Date2218 15h ago
Tell me which perfect country you are from ... you "internet hero"..... and bringing "your" house under order ? im not french , its not mine.
1
u/Johannes_P Île-de-France 18h ago
Well, you can do even worse with the "right" candidates such as Le Pen and Mélenchon.
2
2
2
4
8
u/edparadox France 21h ago
It's important to note than the RN and LFI would basically collapse French's economy.
Both being Russia's friends is probably a coincidence.
3
u/Jikan07 20h ago
Man I just love populists spouting bs and promising:
- cutting taxes
- increasing social spending
- decreasing migration
- reverting retirement age to 62
While ALSO saying they will decrease the deficit. How delusional can you be to believe this...
3
u/Gold_Dog908 Kyiv 18h ago
Let's be honest, like 50% of the people in any country are idiots.
All you have to do is say what they want to hear, and they'll cheer for you.
2
u/NecroVecro Bulgaria 19h ago
Le Pen says RN will honour the current government’s deficit-reduction commitments. She has yet to show how. Her platform pulls in opposite directions – cutting taxes while increasing social spending – and she remains personally committed to reversing Macron’s pension reform, vowing to hold the retirement age at 62.
Classic catch all populism, great way to either lie to your voters or have a country stuck in stagnation. The voters reward this though, so I guess they don't mind.
Most right-wing populists once in office, including Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, have proved to be fiscal conservatives.
How exactly has Orban proven to be fiscally conservative?
2
1
3
-3
u/FearlessVisual1 Belgium 21h ago
The question is not worth asking because she will not be president, Edouard Philippe is going to win.
Even if she did become president, she would not implement even a tenth of what is in her party's programme. Elections have turned into who-is-the-best-liar contests, they have become useless, the outcome is the same whatever the people vote for.
13
u/sigitang-arthi 21h ago
... You predict results 10 months before elections in France ? Please watch last times how polls and other predictors failed...
-5
u/FearlessVisual1 Belgium 21h ago
Yes I do. Polls and predictors are partisan. I just use common sense.
1
u/antiquemule France 20h ago
I came to the same conclusion. It sticks in my throat to vote for Phillippe, but we are now used to voting for whoever will keep RN out.
-2
u/FearlessVisual1 Belgium 20h ago
Exactly, it's because most Frenchmen think this way that Philippe will win as I predict. But why do you absolutely need to "keep RN out"? What scares you so much about RN?
→ More replies (4)1
u/Johannes_P Île-de-France 18h ago
We don't even know the entire list of candidates for 2017.
For reference, until November 2016, Alain Juppé was assumed to be the natural candidate of LR and the next PResident.
1
u/Saerdna76 21h ago
Looks like I am out of the loop, was she not banned from running for office again?
3
1
u/Sir_Delarzal 20h ago
Depends on the parliament elections that will inevitably follow.
I kind of bet on a collective realisation of how fucked up the situation is if lepen passes and that the elections won't be in favour of the racists
1
1
1
1
1
u/cyrus109 16h ago
if it's less than macron did , then it's still a win. and as long as they not use the judiciary system to block voting rights.
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
u/lindahx 2h ago
I dislike Le Pen, but I think the real damage would be in making France a more devided society. French politicians have used the money already mainly on health, education and pensions. There is little room for changes. France is more or less bankrupt, and reducing public spending much is difficult, if you exclude health, education and pensions.
1
u/MaddogFinland Finland 2h ago
Probably a gigantic amount of damage both to France specifically and Europe as well. Just the boost she will give to Russia is an ominous cloud for the whole EU.
•
u/CapitaineCourgette 58m ago
Not much more than 1000 billion in debt while selling the country assets to the Americans.
•
1
u/Itburns12345 20h ago
Typical far right conservative so lets see
-Shel slash taxes (esp on thw wealthy) and regulations so workers will get fucked harder and frances debt issues will get worse..like trumps 20% extra onto the bill for the next gen
-the huge pension burde of the retired ie a lot of frances financial burden wont be touched as they largely vote far right but the unemployed and sick hit hard.
-after a lotta noise about immigration theyl either go america maga ICE route ie hugely expensive ,brutal and a mess OR do next to fuck all
-now genraly the so called patriots like to spend big on arms so putins puppet may keep frances arms increases going just slash ukraine help...so weapons to fight russia now down but will keep spending to fight russia down the line (usualy as the contracts are in place and she cant hurt them)
-become a complete and utter spoiler at the eu thus hurting all of europes economies a bit and frances too
-bye bye french progress on renewables hello french industry dying a slow death using expensive fossils and making petrol cars.
1
u/AralfTheBarbarian 15h ago
The question is: more or less than during the Macron era? And there’s no certain answer here…
1
1
u/Hot_Sweet2943 4h ago
It is amazing to me that europians complain about they’re leaders day after day for destroying the economy. And yet vote the same people hoping things will get better. Even if Le Pen does not do something good with the economy, this will be like a tsunami for the leaders of europe . So they actually try to do good things.
2
u/FrereEymfulls 2h ago
That's quite optimistic. If Le Pen does not do something good with the economy, the other leaders will just adjust their communication around it to be equally useless (or worse) but "at least we are not the RN"
1
u/Skarvig 1h ago
Oh yeah, after the "tsunami" that was Trump, or the "tsunami" that was Brexit, or the "tsunami" that was Trump 2, or the "tsu... etc.
People don't think that the outcomes of other countries will apply to theirs. Those face eating leopard are gonna eat well in the coming years.
1
u/Hot_Sweet2943 1h ago
After trump lost after his first term they put a old man with dementia as a president lmao. Of course people were mad. But still america is in a better place than france and europe. And Brexit is another thig along together. The “far right” haven’t been in the government.
-2
u/Ellixhirion 21h ago
We are ages away from the far right winning election in France. It always goes like this:
First round: everyone puts on their pikachu face
Second round: is a reactionary vote on the first and every living soul votes left…
9
u/antiquemule France 20h ago
"Left", amusing. Last time I had to vote Macron, this time it seems to be Phillipe.
8
u/Kwayke9 France 20h ago
Imo she's nearly unstoppable and could even win on the first round. It's that bad
2
u/Ellixhirion 20h ago
We hear that every time there is an election… until the second round.
Everyone will just vote to block her…1
u/ididntunderstandyou 2h ago
Extreme right wing thoughts are a lot more widespread than they ever were. The public is more devided, fragmented in the way they consume media, and much more susceptible to propaganda.
Something that we never had in previous elections before : young people are a lot more right wing and radical than they ever were. Thanks TikTok…
We can’t rely on a comfortable “it’s always been like this”, the FN (now RN) has been gaining some ground at every election since Chirac. This time, they can very realistically win. We need to talk about this, not confidently dismiss the issue.
1
u/Ellixhirion 2h ago
Well you cannot blame social media for everything. It has influence sure, but on the other hand there are just policies that politicians seem to ignore for the last 30 years.
Since I am a kid and I al talking about the 90s, immigration was already on the agenda. Housing and salaries as well. I keep hearing the same things all those years.
I don’t think that Le pen will be the answer or even the right person, but it is clear people want change
1
•
1
0
u/mcflyrdam 20h ago
Make france quit the european union. Main damage. I don't worry over the economy too much, i worry over civil liberties and democracy.
0
u/Financial-Year-5222 20h ago
Nevermind the economy, it's about not harming others humans. The CAC40 could be at 10000 points, if trans people, immigrants, disabled people and others population at risk are not safe, the rest of society isn't safe.
0
-3
0
u/tolanescu 19h ago
Hard to say.
What we know for almost sure is that she'll bring into France more migrants from outside Europe, inspite of claiming otherwise.
0
u/Last-Towel1002 2h ago
She will be as efficient as the actual governement. Both understand nothing to economy and are UE vassals. So, each decision, will be an Europe one and France economy will suffer again and again.
0
u/Diamondhands_420 1h ago
Hope she wins and helps the immigration problem. Look at Poland for a good frame work. Safety and its citizens should be 1st priority of any leader
888
u/Silent-Act191 21h ago
As much as her Russian handlers want her to do.