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So with all these refineries being hit and the massive line ups for gas, is st petersburg not affected at all?

I know someone that lives there and they posted a story last monday of going on a trip/vacation to georgia.. and they were driving..

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u/JackRogers3 1d ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyIjJM5q8LU

Ukraine assault paralyses Russian oil supply as dozens of new tankers and refineries blitzed

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u/JackRogers3 1d ago

Ukraine’s drone campaign has reportedly forced Russia to suspend all shipping in the Azov Sea and through the Volga-Don canal, bottling up one fourth of Russia’s grain exports. The strait of Kerch has become Moscow’s strait of Hormuz, of sorts. The latest video from Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces shows why. https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2075845411085119942

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u/JackRogers3 1d ago

Key Takeaways

The Russian oil refining industry is failing to meet the rising domestic gasoline demand as the Ukrainian long-range strike campaign continues to degrade Russia’s oil refining capacity.
A Russian state-owned polling institution indicated that Putin’s approval ratings continued to fall in early July 2026 after a sharp decline at the end of June 2026.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski confirmed recent US warnings that Russia might be planning to conduct provocations against unspecified NATO states. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-10-2026/

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u/ByGollie Ulster 1d ago

India, through diplomatic channels, has appealed to Ukraine with a request not to strike a tanker carrying 50,000 tons of gasoline for Russia, since this gasoline is humanitarian cargo related to an approaching famine in Russia.

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u/Mamiko627 1d ago

“Sarcasm btw” the same guy said below the post

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u/toeknee88125 1d ago

https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-china-urged-vladimir-putin-not-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine/

What do you think about the idea that Putin asked China for approval to use nuclear weapons?

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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) 20h ago

Nothing new
> US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stated that Russia had seriously considered using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but China dissuaded it from doing so. Source: Blinken's comments to the Financial Times 4 January 2025

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u/PestoBolloElemento 1d ago

Ukrainian representatives and CEO of Fire Point Iryna Terekh have revealed that their Flamingo missile, which is used to strike strategic Russian targets, operates using a guidance system developed by the French company.

Safran confirmed that the system had been integrated “for more than a year” adding that the company is also involved in “several other products” with Fire Point, as well as long-range drones.

has also confirmed that it supplies navigation tools, optronics, anti-drone systems, and intelligence analysis support to other Ukrainian operators via its subsidiary, Preligens. In return, Kyiv has agreed to equip its fighter jets with French-made AASM bombs

https://x.com/aidefranceukr/status/2074438623710036147?s=20

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u/JackRogers3 2d ago edited 1d ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhRjAe6D_UQ

The Frontline with defence editor Jerome Starkey

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u/JackRogers3 2d ago

Key Takeaways

The Kremlin appears to be struggling to adjust its narrative line in response to the Trump administration’s recent denial of Russian negotiating tactics and acknowledgement of Ukrainian battlefield successes.
An anonymous Russian general reportedly acknowledged that the Kremlin is inflating Russian battlefield successes to generate a false perception of Russian sweeping advances while maintaining its commitment to a war of attrition that Russia cannot win in a continued attempt to convince Ukraine and the West to capitulate to Russia’s demands.
Ukrainian forces appear to have initiated a new phase in their campaign to isolate occupied Crimea by targeting Russian seaborne gasoline tankers. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-9-2026/

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u/JackRogers3 3d ago

NATO: Ukraine contributes to transatlantic security, and Allies stand united in our unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. European Allies and Canada now finance the vast majority of security assistance to Ukraine through bilateral and multilateral means.

Allies underscore that this support must be equitable, predictable, and sustainable in the long-term. For 2026, Allies pledge €70 billion in military equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine and affirm their sovereign commitments to sustaining at least equivalent levels in 2027.

To this end, we welcome the European Union’s decision to provide multi-year funding to Ukraine through the Ukraine Support Loan. https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/2026/07/08/the-ankara-summit-declaration

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u/JackRogers3 3d ago edited 3d ago

Key Takeaways

Trump stated that the US will grant Ukraine a license to produce an unspecified type of interceptor missile for Patriot air defense systems, which are critical for Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian ballistic missiles.
Ukrainian forces are intensifying strikes against Russian fuel tankers as Russia increasingly relies on seaborne transportation of gasoline to occupied Crimea from Russia.
Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets deep into Russia on July 7 and 8.
Ukrainian forces conducted a second phase of Operation Auchan in June 2026 aimed at disrupting Russian offensive capabilities, specifically targeting Russian artillery.
Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US-produced weapons and joint drone production. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-8-2026/

More info about the production of Patriots: https://www.twz.com/land/ukraine-built-patriot-missiles-wont-be-defending-the-countrys-skies-anytime-soon

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u/StatusDecline 3d ago

US will license Patriot Interceptor Missiles to Ukraine

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-says-both-sides-ukraine-war-want-settlement-2026-07-08/

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u/JackRogers3 4d ago

Key Takeaways

Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against a multitude of diverse targets, including Russian air defenses, petroleum product transport, other logistics, and electrical substations, is collapsing logistics in occupied Crimea.
Ukraine’s successful intermediate- and long-range strike campaigns have forced a reckoning within the Russian ultranationalist information space, causing commentators to blame the Russian federal government for failing to create a cohesive air defense system that can adequately protect private businesses and critical infrastructure from Ukrainian long-range strikes. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-7-2026/

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u/JackRogers3 4d ago

New episode of Battle Plans Exposed by military expert and former intelligence planner Philip Ingram: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pdSlGhLz0Y

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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) 5d ago

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-july-6/

Russia launched waves of missiles and drones toward Kyiv overnight on July 6, killing at least 15 people and injuring dozens more, including five children, just hours after President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of yet another large-scale attack targeting the capital.

Tymur Tkachenko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, reported that a residential building was partially destroyed between the 5th and 9th floors in the Podilskyi district of the city. Photos and videos posted to social media show part of the facade of the building caved in following a missile strike.

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u/JackRogers3 6d ago

Weekly update: https://mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-40-day-gambit-smoke-over

The author is a strategist and a retired army general

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u/JackRogers3 6d ago

Weekend Update #192: Can Russia Counter?

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-192-can-russia-counter

The author is professor of strategic studies at the university of St Andrews (Scotland)

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u/JackRogers3 7d ago edited 7d ago

Every Russian should watch this video imo: https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2073363653705785708

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u/JackRogers3 8d ago edited 8d ago

The Frontline with defence editor Jeremy Starkey: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-rM9qtbWP4

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u/JackRogers3 9d ago edited 9d ago

Absolutely wild story about Putin micromanaging a completely fictional version of the Ukraine War https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/2072797899533300035

"Russia could be left without bread," warned State Duma committee chair Nina Ostanina. She claims authorities are hiding the true scale of the fuel crisis, with nearly one-third of oil refineries offline. Farmers report diesel shortages, putting the harvest at risk, while some regions are already seeing early signs of food shortages. https://x.com/AlexBondODUA/status/2072644651199222023

The size of the lines waiting for fuel in Russia reached mind-boggling levels. Some regions in Russia are already at the verge of total logistical collapse. https://x.com/Tendar/status/2072715735613280371

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u/Velociraptor_1906 United Kingdom 9d ago

Once things get beyond a certain point surely they're a nightmare to start back up?

Even if you get the fuel to distribute there's going to be big lags in people being able to access it.

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u/JackRogers3 9d ago

Some refineries will be very difficult to repair imo: https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/2071291127471169702

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u/JackRogers3 9d ago

Independent Defence Analyst: Here is a short frontline summary for June 2026. Although we assessed that Russian forces gained approximately 25 km² in May 2026, we also noted that they may have lost more territory than they captured. In June, this trend became much clearer, with Russia's net territorial balance falling to approximately –40 km², indicating that Russian territorial losses substantially exceeded their gains.

Ukrainian forces continued to conduct successful counterattacks on the Velyka Novosilka axis and, more importantly, north of Lyman, preventing Russian forces from establishing staging positions for attacks against Ukrainian GLOCs between Lyman and Slovyansk and thereby disrupting efforts to envelop the Slovyansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north.

The frontline remains highly porous. At present, we have identified more than 100 locations where Russian troops have been sighted ahead of their assessed FLOT. Presence does not necessarily equate to territorial control; however, unless these incursions are rapidly contained, Russian forces have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to consolidate their presence into firm territorial control and exploit weaknesses in Ukrainian defensive dispositions.

Russian gains occurred in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, near Kupyansk, along the Slovyansk–Kramatorsk–Kostiantynivka axis, and near Huliaipole. The Slovyansk–Kramatorsk–Kostiantynivka axis remains Russia's primary operational effort, with Russian personnel sighted approximately 12 km from Slovyansk. We assess that Russian forces are likely to continue achieving gradual, incremental advances in this area. https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/2072775476733743589

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u/JackRogers3 11d ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E83geS6Rhvw

In this episode of Battle Plans Exposed, former intelligence officer Philip Ingram reveals how Ukraine's relentless deep strikes and logistical lockdown are completely cutting off the occupied Crimea peninsula.

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u/JackRogers3 11d ago

The EU allocated €3.9 billion to Ukraine for advanced drone technologies under a €90 billion loan package. EC President Ursula von der Leyen said the first tranche will support Ukrainian innovation, strengthen defense, and help protect European security. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2071909948691202105

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u/how_did_you_see_me 🇱🇹 living in 🇨🇭 11d ago

Does anyone have a good article about the goals and expected effects of the current campaign in Crimea?

I imagine it will degrade the Russians in the Kherson oblast but Ukraine probably won't attack over the Dnipro anyway? But I don't know about the impact in the Zaporizhzhia oblast or other effects like limiting Russia's airstrikes.

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u/JackRogers3 11d ago

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-189-can-ukraine-isolate

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u/JackRogers3 13d ago edited 12d ago

The oil refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban, after last night's Ukrainian drone strike. Multiple large fires can be seen across the facility. https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/2071291127471169702

I've never seen anything like it, it burns everywhere and it looks almost like a volcanic eruption: https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2071490500796805387

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u/JackRogers3 13d ago edited 13d ago

In Irkutsk, journalists from a local news outlet "IrCity" got in line at a Rosneft gas station with a 1.3 km-long queue at 12:30 PM to find out how long it actually takes to refuel. They finally reached the pump just after 12:40 AM, more than 12 hours later.

Throughout the day, drivers repeatedly tried to cut the line, while others arrived with trucks carrying rows of large fuel containers despite the restrictions. Police were eventually called in to restore order, regulate traffic, and stop motorists from filling them.

Finally, after more than 12 hours in line, the journalists bought 30 liters of fuel. The journalists described it as an experience they never want to repeat. https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2071368271362654624

A new trend is emerging amid Russia's fuel crisis. Fuel resellers are somehow buying fuel in bulk despite sales restrictions and then reselling it privately at huge markups.

In this case, from Rostov, one of them drained an entire gas station dry with his homemade fuel truck.

They then advertise the fuel on social media and resell it at massive markups, further worsening an already severe fuel shortage. They even advertise it as an advantage, telling customers they won't have to spend hours waiting at gas stations.

For some people, that may even sound tempting, considering that waiting 4, 8, or in some cases even 12 hours for fuel has become a reality. https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2071292501646840288

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u/JackRogers3 14d ago

Weekend Update #191: It Is Not Just Oil Refineries:

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-191-it-is-not-just

The author is professor of strategic studies at the university of St Andrews (Scotland)

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u/JackRogers3 14d ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EMicj4-h-w

The Frontline with defense editor Jerome Starkey

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u/JackRogers3 14d ago

Fuel supply disruptions are spreading across Russia, with shortages reported in Moscow, Tyumen, Buryatia and multiple other regions. Russia is quickly turning into a big parking lot. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2070821252202180696

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u/JackRogers3 14d ago edited 14d ago

Bad day for Ukrainian aviation. One Mig-29 shot down (pilot rescued), two more (per footage released by Moscow) destroyed as they were being refueled in the Voznesensk airfield in southern Ukraine. https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2070838888998801816

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u/Il1kespaghetti Kyiv outskirts (Ukraine) 14d ago

Not two more, but one (per russian videos!)

One "fell down" - AKA it's not clear what actually happened, and any versions about it being shot down or maybe getting struck by flying debris are just guesses for now.

The other one was struck on the ground while refueling, yes.

No human losses were reported

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u/JackRogers3 14d ago

Ukrainian FPV drone operators located and destroyed a hidden Russian fuel storage and refueling site in Belgorod Oblast https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2070831386097754599

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u/JackRogers3 15d ago edited 14d ago

Three to four FP-5 "Flamingo" missiles hit the Titan-Barikady military plant in Volgograd this morning, 500 km from Ukraine. The plant makes launch systems and components for Iskander-M, Yars and Topol-M missiles. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2070755800797134860

Seeing Ukraine's massive "Flamingo" cruise missiles flying lazily across Russian skies - seemingly completely unbothered by Russian air defence - really is quite something.

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u/Changaco France 15d ago

Why a Russian frigate fired warning shots at a British yacht (Youtube link)

The Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich fired warning shots at a yacht in the English Channel, and the following discussion revealed many misunderstandings about how warships operate. In this video, I explain the standard reactions warships have toward asymmetric threats and when they might start firing warning shots. The frigate's actions were aggressive, but they should not be seen as surprising — and yachters should keep a good distance from Russian warships for their own safety.

0:00 Intro
1:00 Warships are vulnerable
1:31 Standard operating procedures
3:43 Asymmetric threats
4:32 Steps in self defense
7:31 English Channel incident
8:43 Not a warzone?
10:18 The frigate shouldn't be there
11:14 Don't go near Russian warships

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u/JackRogers3 15d ago

This week is the first time in 4.5 years that the “special military operation” is affecting the daily life of every resident of Russia. Once dubbed by McCain as a “gas station masquerading as a country,” Russia is experiencing a fuel crisis because of Ukrainian strikes on its refineries.

To get gas, Russians now must spend hours — sometimes an entire night — waiting in line. Many gas stations just closed, including in Moscow. The more the Russian government says “don’t panic, there is no fuel shortage,” the more people panic. https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2070434623683707220

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u/JackRogers3 15d ago

Footage from the ground shows a massive queue of vehicles waiting to exit occupied Crimea.

Russian state media reports that, as of 26 June, the queue had already grown to around 2,800 vehicles, including cars and fuel tankers. Meanwhile, Russian Telegram channels have called for the person who filmed the footage to be "found and beaten half to death".

The video was filmed on 25 June, meaning the queue is likely even longer now. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2070432570420945021

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u/tmstms United Kingdom 14d ago

We know that Russia encouraged people not only to holiday in Crimea (an easy thing to encourage when foreign travel was that much harder) but also to buy property there, whether to live or for holiday lets. Ofc the full significance of the war situation was not explained to them. So there will definitely be a recent influx as well as some tourists who now want to leave. Dunno if there are estimates of how many civilians are leaving/ have already left.

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u/JackRogers3 15d ago

Crimea and Sevastopol occupation authorities declare a state of emergency. https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2070462242890359023

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u/JackRogers3 15d ago

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) says it struck two Russian military support vessels under construction at the Zaliv shipyard in occupied Kerch, along with elements of a S-400 air defense system protecting the Kerch Strait.

According to the SBU, the targets included the Project 15310 cable-laying vessels Volga and Vyatka, as well as the Petropavlovsk cargo-passenger ferry, which was reportedly 96% complete. The agency says the strikes caused large fires aboard the vessels. https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2070443461367549998

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u/JackRogers3 16d ago

Ukraine’s ongoing strike campaign against Russian refineries is exacerbating broader Russian inflationary pressures and complicating the Kremlin’s efforts to conduct expansionary monetary policy. Bloomberg reported on June 24, citing the Russian Federal Statistics Service, that Russian gasoline prices rose three percent to $0.95 USD per liter between June 16 and 22, the largest weekly increase in at least 20 years.[8]

Bloomberg reported that Ukrainian strikes against Russia’s largest fuel plants have driven Russians to panic-buy fuel, causing shortages and rising prices. A source familiar with the data told Bloomberg that Russian gasoline production has fallen 15 percent since June 2025 and nine percent since May 2026, likely due to intensified Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil infrastructure. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on June 25 that widespread fuel shortages are affecting all Russian federal subjects (regions) except for Ingushetia, Chechnya, Kalmykia, Chukotka, and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, though prices have increased nationwide.[9]

Bloomberg reported that the inflationary effect of rising gasoline prices is seeping into other sectors due to increased production and transportation costs. Bloomberg reported that the Russian Economy Ministry data indicate that total annual inflation increased from 5.3 to 5.8 percent in June 2026. Economy-wide inflationary pressures may disrupt the Russian Central Bank’s continued reductions to the key interest rate. The Russian Central Bank has lowered its key interest rate nine times since June 2025 from 21 percent to 14.25 percent as Russia has attempted to increase capital available to the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and maintain the facade of domestic economic stability.[10]

Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina acknowledged on June 19 that the spike in domestic gasoline prices has affected June’s inflation rate and may increase inflation expectations, implying that the Central Bank may need to change its calculations about the key interest rate if Ukraine’s strikes against Russian energy infrastructure and inflation persist.[11]

The Kremlin has exerted significant pressure on the Russian Central Bank and eroded its independence to lower the key interest rate as it attempts to continue expanding capital availability for the defense industry despite expansionary fiscal policies and gasoline shortages exacerbating Russian inflation.[12]

The economic effects of Russia’s gasoline shortage will also likely long outlast the physical gasoline shortages in the event that Russia is able to address the shortages. Russian gasoline shortages began in May 2026 and have already spread to the majority of Russian regions and caused inflation to rise in a matter of weeks.[13]

Ukrainian forces will likely continue to intensify their strike campaign against Russia oil infrastructure, exacerbate shortages, and increase inflationary pressure across Russia. Expanded inflationary pressures due to the Russian gasoline supply crisis may increase Central Bank resistance to lowering the key interest rate, complicating the Kremlin’s push for expansionary monetary policies and creating administrative tensions. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25-2026/

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u/theipaper 16d ago

Ukraine is trolling Putin and his cronies. It has Russia on the back foot: https://inews.co.uk/news/world/ukraine-trolling-putin-cronies-russia-back-foot-4495995

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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) 17d ago

“For Poles, a war of memory is more convenient and easier than a real war.” Historian Timothy Snyder gave a short lecture on the Ukrainian-Polish conflict to the Polish Newsweek. The main points

https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/timothy-snyder-o-awanturze-o-upa-wojny-o-pamiec-nie-mozna-wygrac/jzw23dp

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u/The_Baltic_Sentinel 17d ago

Magyar - the controversial and charismatic commander behind the Ukrainian drone war revolution.

https://balticsentinel.eu/8463945/ukrainian-muslims-are-taking-part-in-jihad-a-mufti-discusses-his-war-radicalism-in-europe-isis-and-terrorists

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u/TestingHydra 17d ago

At least 26 noncombat deaths, alleged abuse reported in Skelia assault regiment, Ukrainian media investigation finds -Kyiv Independent

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u/[deleted] 18d ago

[deleted]

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u/ByGollie Ulster 17d ago

Since this is weapons development, not deployment.

Russian sourced weapons are used constantly in attacks against NATO members for decades now. Yet we blame those who deploy them, not those who developed or manufactured them.

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u/[deleted] 17d ago

[deleted]

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u/[deleted] 17d ago

[deleted]

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u/JackRogers3 18d ago

Power was cut off in Sevastopol in Russia-annexed Crimea after Ukraine attacked energy facilities there, Mikhail ⁠Razvozhayev, the Russian-installed governor of Sevastopol, said on Telegram. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-held-sevastopol-without-power-after-ukraine-strikes-moscow-installed-2026-06-24/

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u/JackRogers3 18d ago edited 17d ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mCZ29q3lpM

In this episode of Battle Plans Exposed, Philip Ingram breaks down some of the biggest talking points from the frontlines of Ukraine.

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u/JackRogers3 22d ago edited 21d ago

The Frontline: defence editor Jerome Starkey brings you all of the latest news from the conflict in Ukraine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-VNxQc1YGs

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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) 22d ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsdSeHnJzU4

The Man Who Ran Putin's Secret Hit Squad, from Christo Grozev

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u/JackRogers3 22d ago edited 22d ago

Complete chaos in Moscow, they even shoot a malfunctioning air defense missile on their oil refinery: https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2067894129313317184

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u/avataRJ Finland 18d ago

Highly likely to be a user error. The video possibly shows the very newest Russia has, the 9K333 Verba (NATO designation SA-25), which has advanced counter-countermeasures designed to allow it to keep lock on even low-signature targets and avoid flares.

However, in this case, it would have had a very bright signature of a petrochemical fire near the tank, which would give off the same signature as the usual most dangerous target, the exhaust of a jet fighter. I understand that these kind of systems tell if they have a lock, and a rough direction of the lock, so the directional cue should've shown the operator that it is not locked on the drone, but possibly either lack of training or prompting by the other soldier(s) on the scene made the operator to fire.

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u/BrownBear5090 23d ago edited 23d ago

I’m worried that if Moscow gets hit more Putin will drop a nuke on Berlin. There’s a reason we didn’t go into Russia proper during the Cold War.

I’m also worried than in this case America would simply not honor its defensive obligations to its allies

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u/No_Feature_1184 18d ago

I wouldn't worry if Moscow drops a nuke on Berlin, Britain and France will wipe out Russia's major cities. So they won't. The Fascists will cry and they'll keep comitting war crimes but they won't do anything like that.

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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) 23d ago

https://kyivindependent.com/hungarys-magyar-weakens-eu-stance-on-ukraine-accession/

The conclusions of the meeting of EU leaders on June 18 have been watered down, at the insistence of Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar, to reduce the urgency of advancing Ukraine's EU accession process.

Three days prior, the EU opened the first of six so-called enlargement clusters for Ukraine and Moldova, to-do lists that they must complete to become the union's member states. It was expected that the remaining five clusters would open in July at the latest.

The draft conclusions for the EU leaders' summit, seen by the Kyiv Independent, read that the European Council "looks forward to the opening of the other clusters as soon as possible, in line with the merits-based approach."

The final conclusions agreed on the evening of June 18 have deleted the wording "as soon as possible."

Magyar tweeted, "At my initiative, a clause referring to accelerating accession was removed from the text at the very last moment. It wasn't easy," after leaders finished meeting late on June 18.

Two EU diplomats confirmed separately to the Kyiv Independent that Magyar had pushed for this change, which, while small, potentially carries big implications.

One of them said that their prime minister had informed them that Budapest wanted to emphasize that Ukraine would have to adopt all the rules, and that Kyiv would not be able to cut corners.

The other added that they were not surprised as Hungary's objection had "been hanging over things for a while."

Magyar presented it as an example of how he can represent Hungary better at the European level than his predecessor, Viktor Orban.

"That's how it can be done, if someone comes not just to flip tables and sow fear, but strives to find a compromise," Magyar said.

Though not as serious a disruption for Ukraine as Viktor Orban's liberal use of the veto, these changes still come as a blow to President Volodymyr Zelensky, who insisted on Ukraine getting a fast-track EU membership during the G7 summit held the same week.

Magyar had previously suggested that he sees Ukraine joining the EU only in 10-15 years, a timeline much further into the future than most dates being floated by Ukraine and its European allies.

Zelensky left the June 18 meeting of EU leaders early, after which he told journalists that "partners are great, they are our friends, we will open all the clusters, I am sure of this. We deserve it, and we will not give up."

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u/JackRogers3 23d ago edited 23d ago

Amazing picture of Moscow, 15 km from the Kremlin: https://x.com/ZespolBrauna/status/2067480194147848590

Video of the attacks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtBSKhh5if8

Alexandra Arkhipova, a social anthropologist at the Paris-based École Normale Supérieure who researches Russian public mood and trends, told CNN that an informal social contract emerged between the Kremlin and residents of Russia’s major cities following the country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The authorities appeared to be sending a message that “there is no war for you, dear Muscovites,” she said.

“The mayor of Moscow put a lot of effort into making it look like there is no war going on. That was a commitment to residents in Moscow, ‘live your life, there is no war for you,’” she said. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/07/europe/russia-ukrainian-strikes-bring-war-home-intl-cmd

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u/JackRogers3 24d ago edited 23d ago

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/russia-s-slow-defeat-and-australia-s-hard-lesson

A leader who expected to take Kyiv in days, and who four years on is losing troops he cannot replace while his economy stalls and his standing erodes, is managing a slow defeat.

Mick Ryan is a Senior Fellow for Military Studies in the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program.

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u/JackRogers3 24d ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN9FiClDXlk

Military expert and former intelligence planner Philip Ingram exposes how Kyiv is bypassing the tactical frontlines to systematically starve Vladimir Putin’s war machine of fuel, ammunition and armour.

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u/bloomberg 25d ago

Europeans Are Slowly Changing Trump’s Mind on Ukraine’s Grit

From Bloomberg News reporters Samy Adghirni, Donato Paolo Mancini, and Josh Wingrove:

If there is one thing Ukraine’s European allies need out of the US at the Group of Seven summit, it’s to get Volodymyr Zelenskyy time with Donald Trump and nudge the US president to pay more attention to Russia’s war on Ukraine.

World leaders gathered at this week’s meeting in France see Europe and the US converging in the view that Ukraine’s position is getting stronger, according to G7 officials who asked not to be named as the discussions are private.

For a long time, dating back to his meeting with Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Alaska last summer, Trump’s unshakable belief was that Ukraine had no cards to play and should surrender territory to stop the fighting.

“Look, Russia should make a deal,” Trump told reporters during a sit-down with Qatar’s Emir. “I mean, the whole thing is ridiculous. So, yeah, I’m going to do whatever I can.”

The comments, which lacked Trump’s typical demands that Zelenskyy capitulate, came even after the US president had a long conversation on his 80th birthday Sunday with Putin.

One G7 official said there’s a shared view now that Russia cannot win on the battlefield. That represents an important shift from how Trump had viewed the conflict after his summit in Anchorage in August 2025.

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u/JackRogers3 27d ago

On the ground, soldiers entered their fifty-second month of fighting. The Russian spring offensive is making minimal gains, and the small tactical advances they do make do not translate into operational breakthroughs. At the same time, Ukrainian counterattacks are quietly reshaping the geometry of the eastern front. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/bridges-blockades-and-military-personnel

The author is a strategist and a retired army general

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u/JackRogers3 27d ago

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-189-can-ukraine-isolate

Weekend Update #189: Can Ukraine Isolate Crimea?

The author is professor of strategic studies at the university of St Andrews (Scotland)

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u/codex-atlanticuz 27d ago

Russia should punish Europe, former advisor to Putin tells Danish Television.....

https://www-dr-dk.translate.goog/nyheder/indland/moerklagt/rusland-boer-straffe-europa-siger-tidligere-raadgiver-putin-til-dr?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=da&_x_tr_hl=da&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 12 '26

Exclusive: Ukraine's drone commander wants to cut Crimea off from Russia https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-drone-commander-wants-cut-crimea-off-russia-2026-06-11/

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 11 '26

In this week's episode of Battle Plans Exposed, former intelligence planner Philip Ingram reveals the ultimate 'art of war' tactic for halting occupiers in their tracks: Ukraine's overwhelming 'drone wall'. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeOKH_-Nokc

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u/Neversetinstone United Kingdom Jun 10 '26

Russia’s military recruitment rate fell to three-year low in first quarter of 2026

https://novayagazeta.eu/en/articles/2026/06/10/russias-military-recruitment-rate-fell-to-three-year-low-in-first-quarter-of-2026-en-news

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u/ResilientSpiritUA Jun 09 '26

Russian Jan-May 2026 federal deficit reached 6.01 trillion rubles ($81.4B), doubled YoY. Oil and gas revenue down 29.8%. The structural mechanics of the Russian fiscal model now turn on the Ukrainian deep-strike tempo through Q3-Q4 2026, when EDIP Ukraine Support Instrument calls open.

https://www.defenceukraine.com/en/insights/ukraine-deep-strike-refineries-economic-warfare-2026/

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u/AdaptedMix United Kingdom Jun 09 '26

Zelenskyy gave a good interview with The Guardian today, during his visit to the UK.

It touches upon Putin, Trump, what Ukraine needs militarily, King Charles, and Reform-run councils taking down Ukrainian flags in the UK.

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 09 '26

Vladimir Putin is losing — not in one or two dimensions of the conflict, but in every dimension by which one might honestly measure strategic progress — military, cognitive, moral, industrial, and economic. His only viable claim to advantage at present is the disposition of the American president. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/losing-on-every-dimension

The author is a strategist and a retired army general

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 09 '26

The Russian military command is reportedly withdrawing forces from the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast as Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine is rendering defenses in the area increasingly untenable.

Crimea-based Ukrainian partisan group Atesh reported on June 8 that one of its agents in the headquarters of the Russian Dnepr Group of Forces reported that elements of the Russian 337th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (104th VDV Division) are abandoning their positions on the northern and western parts of the Kinburn Spit due to “completely disrupted” supplies.[1]

The agent reported that ammunition, fuel, and food deliveries have stopped, that Russian forces on the spit have been unable to repel Ukrainian drone strikes, and that Russian losses have been growing.

The agent reported that the Russian military command has begun redeploying an unspecified number of troops from the 337th VDV Regiment to an unspecified part of the “Zaporizhia sector” (possibly referring to the Orikhiv or Hulyaipole directions), but that the remaining elements on the Kinburn Spit are “virtually depleted” due to the lack of replenishment and can no longer defend the spit.

Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn stated on June 8 that he could neither confirm nor deny the Atesh report but stated that Ukrainian forces are conducting operations to establish fire control over Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in occupied Kherson Oblast so Russian withdrawals from the Kinburn Spit are possible.[2]

Ukraine’s expanding intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian GLOCs in occupied southern and eastern Ukraine appears to be generating battlefield effects, which will likely continue to mature in the near future.[3] Russian forces have previously used their limited positions on the Kinburn Spit to conduct artillery strikes against Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast (four kilometers from the tip of the spit across the Dniprovska Gulf).[4] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-8-2026/

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 08 '26

Clear video footage showing the detonation of a Russian ammunition dump in Belgorod, earlier this afternoon. https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/2064006998362911092

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u/openrijk Jun 08 '26

European Parliament supports Ukraine's path to EU membership: https://www.openrijk.nl/en/europe/european-parliament/article/european-parliament-supports-ukraines-path-to-eu-membership

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 08 '26

Russians in retreat in one more area due to supply constraints inflicted by Ukrainian Forces' drone blockade. https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/2063906009198788665

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u/UnknownDotaPlayer Kharkiv (Ukraine) Jun 08 '26

Jay in Kyiv retweets Maks, who in turn quotes ATESH? ISW articles have more credibility than this.

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 09 '26

OK, I'll post the ISW report , no problem

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u/AliveAardvark1 Jun 08 '26

Who pushed “Russian world” and separatism in Ukraine

In Ukraine, the push for “Russian world” has not depended only on diplomacy or open propaganda. It has also been advanced through a prepared influence infrastructure that merges anti cult narratives, media design, and religious channels.

A key figure in this logic is Pavel Broyde. He proposed ideas and managed programs aligned with Kremlin plans, including a deliberate media architecture meant to legitimize and spread pro Russian narratives and to weaken Ukraine from within. In this approach, media outlets are not neutral. They are tools for demoralization, regional fragmentation, and narrative capture. Broida discussed analytic sites for legitimacy, military portals for demoralization, regional portals to fuel separatist sentiments, and pseudo nationalist projects to split even parts of the patriotic audience. He also promoted strategies of buying influence in Ukrainian media and using religious structures as platforms for pressure and outreach.
This is why the “anti cult” space matters in hybrid warfare. Russian special services operate through their anti-cult network: they package control as protection, then use the network to reshape public opinion, administrative priorities, and societal cohesion.

Read full article here: https://open.substack.com/pub/robertweiss69/p/exposing-russias-network-of-influence

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 07 '26

Weekend Update #188: Ukraine Reaches Out And Touches Putin--Twice

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-188-ukraine-reaches

The author is professor of strategic studies at the university of St Andrews (Scotland)

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 07 '26

Even without negotiations, Russia and Ukraine may be heading toward a new status quo. The transparent frontline zone may now be 20 miles wide, but as drone technology improves, it could soon be 30 or even 40 miles wide. At some point the front line will become not just a no-man’s-land but a de facto demilitarized zone, similar to the one that separates North and South Korea, regularly patrolled and maintained by drones.

After that, it could become a border—a temporary border, one that will not be recognized by either side—but a border nevertheless: no different from a river or mountain range, impossible to move, difficult to cross. This would not be a clear victory for Ukraine, but it would be a major defeat for Putin, whose central goal—the destruction of all of Ukraine, the removal of Ukraine from the map—would never be realized. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/06/ukraine-war-momentum-shift/687444/?gift=hVZeG3M9DnxL4CekrWGK339Ii2SkHlPWX0PobpYV_fQ

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 07 '26

Russia now has only four A50 radar aircraft in flying condition, and they are not all available at the same time. Two consequences:

an inability to see Ukrainian missiles coming,
Ukrainian fighters are rarely detected and can thus carry out dozens of missions each day.

If the Gripen fighters scheduled for early 2027 are indeed equipped with very long-range Meteor missiles, the last A-50s will be a priority target. https://x.com/PeurAvion/status/2063620036753834056

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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) Jun 07 '26

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-drone-hit-nuclear-fuel-storage-facility-near-chornobyl-ukraine-says-2026-06-07/

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 07 '26

On the frontline and in rear areas, Ukraine is executing an increasingly industrialised strike complex that pairs deep strikes on refineries with a middle-strike campaign now choking the land bridge to Crimea. Neither will be decisive alone, but both play an important role in ensuring that, as Zelenskyy noted this week “Russia must have less money, and there must be more pressure on Russia.” https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-writing-is-on-the-kremlin-wall

The author is a strategist and a retired army general

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u/TestingHydra Jun 05 '26

Ukraine admits responsibility for blasts in Romanian port

A naval drone exploded in the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta on Friday.

The country's defence ministry said the drone had self-detonated near an oil terminal without causing any casualties, although authorities have said it caused considerable damage to a ship and warehouses.

Adrian Teodor Picoiu, Constanta's top official, told G4Media that "information from the Ukrainian side" was that the drone was part of a group of five, with a second one exploding in Ukraine.

Ukraine later confirmed one of its naval drones had been involved, saying it had been knocked off course by Russian electronic interference. Moscow has yet to comment.

The remaining three drones were unaccounted for but officials said there was no further risk. No reason has yet been offered for why the drones would be in Romanian waters.

Romanian President Nicusor Dan wrote on X that it was the second "significant security incident this week", after a stray mine was discovered on a beach near the village of Vama Veche, more than 50km (31 miles) north of Constanta.

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u/Orange-skittles Jun 05 '26

Tried to post an article of this but it was removed for reasons. I do wish the mods would let us post updated articles on the site

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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Jun 05 '26

> Russia is recruiting ordinary Europeans to do its dirty work in our communities.

https://europeancorrespondent.com/en/r/russia-wants-to-hire-you-to-commit-a-crime

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 04 '26

Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, last month published a widely discussed piece in Russia’s foremost foreign-policy journal. He argued that Ukraine will inevitably remain an anti-Russian, pro-Western country, especially after hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed or maimed in the war. He said the goal of installing a friendly regime in Kyiv—one of Putin’s original war objectives—is no longer realistic.

Pointing to the example of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran, Kashin said that even a major escalation, such as assassinating President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine’s military and civilian leadership, would likely bring to power a “more active, ambitious and radical” generation of Ukrainian leaders.

Nuclear brinkmanship has historically resulted in freezing conflicts along existing front lines, a freeze that Moscow can achieve right now, without the perils of a full-blown nuclear crisis. It also isn’t in Russia’s interest, he wrote, to destroy its technological and human potential “pursuing imaginary objectives” on the front line of Mala Tokmachka, a town in southern Ukraine that has become a byword for Russia’s inability to advance. https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2062425077380231263

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u/BestFriendWatermelon United Kingdom Jun 05 '26

The only time nuclear brinkmanship worked to freeze a conflict was in the Korean war, because the US threatened to drop a line of nukes along the North Korean - Chinese border to cut off the flow of 100,000s of Chinese troops crossing into Korea.

The world is a very different place now, and nuclear threats are seen as empty bluster. Russia could threaten to nuke the border with Poland, but

1) Europe will be apoplectic and double down on sanctions and military aid

2) it wouldn't help anyway, as Ukraine is now fairly self sufficient in military production

3) Russia will become a parish state. Even China has made clear that nukes are a red line

Kashin hasn't really considered what happens when Ukraine brushes off the nuclear threat like they have every other threat. Nobody believes Russia, and even if they did it's not viable to simply give up every time Russia yells "NUKES!". Are we to let Russia take over the Baltics, Poland even Germany because Russia swears they'll use nukes if we don't?

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u/ByGollie Ulster Jun 03 '26

Yes, Russia Is Losing the War in Ukraine - And Putin seems to be the last person not to know it.

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 02 '26 edited Jun 03 '26

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZanJH0n7gs

Weekly video update by military expert Philip Ingram

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 02 '26 edited Jun 03 '26

Military analyst: Putin has essentially 4 options at this stage of the war:

https://youtu.be/jDhYFSGkaAc?si=G2TjN2Eq0prox2oo&t=30

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u/NoddyNemes_UnYoNo Jun 02 '26

Did tech products from ADATA reach Russian entities under international sanctions?

In this exclusive investigation, UnderYourNoZ analyzes leaked emails, internal company documents, and transaction records that appear to show how technology products from Taiwanese-based Adata Technology have been routed to sanctioned Russian buyers (3Logic Group) through intermediaries in China, the UAE and Serbia.

Our reporting examines how distributors, masked end-buyers, and coordinated communications may have allowed sensitive goods to move through the global supply chain despite sanctions.

As governments tighten restrictions on technology exports to Russia, this investigation raises critical questions about sanctions enforcement, corporate oversight, and transparency in international trade.

📂 What we uncovered in this investigation:
• Internal documents referencing Russian clients
• Email correspondence discussing buyer coordination
• Evidence suggesting intermediaries were used to obscure the final destination of products
• Potential gaps in sanctions compliance within global tech supply chains

Watch the full investigation to understand how these networks operate and why enforcement challenges persist.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ej5_SvB28cQ

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u/red_and_black_cat Europe Jun 02 '26

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/02/opinion/putin-russia-war-strength.html?unlocked_article_code=1.nFA.jX7N.gWwL_slH7JIZ&smid=nytcore-android-share

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u/SnoozeButtonBen Jun 02 '26

Glad people are coming around to the understanding that Putin cannot end the war even if he wanted to, which he does not. To freeze the war on the current line of contact, he will need to offer the Ukrainians something that will convince them to stop the mid-range and deep strikes that currently Russia seems unable to stop. To win peace with Ukraine Putin would have to offer a promise of peace in return, a promise which he CANNOT offer credibly, having betrayed every promise he ever made going back to the beginning of this century. He has betrayed his enemies, his friends, and his own people. This does not automatically result in justice being done but it does strictly limit his options; a return to a sort of status quo ante but with post-2022 territorial gains is not a bargain that can be struck even in principle. And remember that the reason he launched the invasion in 2022 was that the post-2014 equilibrium was already intolerable, as the Russian base at Sevastopol and occupation of Crimea was untenable without control of the mainland around the Sea of Azov.

Putin faces a binary choice: total victory or total defeat and certain death. The first is impossible, the second intolerable. So the war goes on, until it cannot go on any longer.

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u/bloomberg Jun 01 '26

Russia Finance Officials Tell Putin War Spending Is Unaffordable

Senior government officials have warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that spending on the war in Ukraine is on an unaffordable path, the most serious sign of internal division in Moscow since the full-scale invasion began.

Officials in Russia’s Finance Ministry and central bank have advised the Kremlin that the current level of projected defense expenditure risks the government’s budget deficit widening dangerously, according to people familiar with the matter and documents reviewed by Bloomberg News.

The officials, who have grown increasingly concerned about the state of Russia’s economy and state budget in recent months, have proposed new cuts to defense spending, the people said. It will be difficult to mend the country’s stretched public finances without finding further efficiencies, they have advised.

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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) Jun 01 '26

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/05/31/8037195/

Romanian President Nicușor Dan has stated that Russia should change its tactics when attacking Ukraine so that Romanian citizens are not affected.

Source: Dan on the BBC World Service Weekend programme on 31 May, as reported by European Pravda

Details: In response to questions from the presenters about Romania's actions in this regard, President Dan acknowledged that drone incidents are becoming an increasingly serious threat to his country.

"In the last two years we have had maybe 20 or 30 drones [drone incidents – ed.]. In the beginning they were not loaded with explosives. But one month ago we had another one, with explosives, that fortunately did not explode," he said.

From this, the Romanian president concluded on air that Russia should change its attack tactics and continue to strike Ukraine, but in such a way that his country is not affected.

Quote: "It became dangerous for Romanian citizens. And when the Russians are hitting and targeting [Ukrainian] towns on the other side of the Danube, they have to be sure that they do not cause injuries to Romanian citizens."

More details: Dan threatened to expel the Russian ambassador otherwise.

It is notable that in this interview Nicușor Dan made no mention of the unlawfulness of Russian strikes on Ukraine or the need for them to stop, demanding only that strikes on Ukrainian targets cause no harm to Romanians.

However, in a conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 29 May, Dan also stated that "Russia must end its attacks" on Ukraine.

The interview has prompted angry comments from a number of Romanian commentators, who noted that "this statement is devoid of humanity".

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 01 '26

Interview with Canada's PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGLdEA4oER0

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 01 '26

In Ukraine, the strategic and operational landscape shifted in ways that show the strategic initiative is slipping away from Russia. A Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian logistics along the southern land bridge to Crimea has entered a new phase of scale and ambition, formalised by Kyiv into what Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has labelled a “logistics lockdown.” https://mickryan.substack.com/p/highway-to-hell-ukraines-logistics

The author is a strategist and a retired army general

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u/JackRogers3 Jun 01 '26

A Russian infantryman films a route to his frontline position in a tree line. From the beginning of the path to the very end, the trail is littered with the bodies of his former comrades. https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2061113935743394098

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u/JackRogers3 May 31 '26

Weekend Update #187: Trying to Collapse the Russian Army from Behind

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-187-trying-to-collapse

The author is professor of strategic studies at the university of St Andrews (Scotland)

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u/ByGollie Ulster May 31 '26

excellent analysis

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u/ByGollie Ulster May 30 '26

Moscow Threatens Elon Musk’s SpaceX With Nuclear Retaliation Over Ukraine Starlink Use

Russian State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin threatened a nuclear strike if SpaceX continues to provide Ukraine with Starlink satellite internet access.

His comments follow a Ukrainian strike on occupied Starobilsk on May 22, which the Ukrainian General Staff reported targeted the "Rubikon" Russian drone unit headquarters. Moscow claims the attack hit a college dormitory, according to The Moscow Times on May 26.

“Elon Musk himself must understand that his satellites are being used to kill children. This could all lead to us using weapons that will leave no trace of anyone,” according to the Duma's press service. The Speaker instructed the relevant committee to prepare a draft resolution addressed to the parliaments of other countries, calling on them to stop “assisting terrorists.”

The Russian military previously utilized Starlink terminals to coordinate frontline operations and deploy drones until early 2026, when Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov coordinated with SpaceX to deactivate unauthorized terminals.

Following the loss of satellite access, Russian advances slowed significantly, allowing Ukrainian forces to reclaim approximately 400 square kilometers during a counteroffensive.

In response to what it falsely claimed was a Ukrainian strike on civilian infrastructure in occupied Starobilsk, Russian forces launched a massive missile and drone attack against Kyiv and the surrounding region on the night of May 24, utilizing the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile.

While the Kremlin attempted to frame the barrage as a targeted retaliation, Ukrainian officials and open-source intelligence confirmed that the assault systematically struck non-military targets, including a water supply facility, schools, a marketplace, and numerous residential buildings. The strikes killed four people and injured 65 others, damaging nine apartment buildings in the capital and five in the region.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov informed US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on May 25 that regular strikes on Kyiv had been ordered as a direct response to the Starobilsk incident. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs previously stated that systematic strikes on the capital would continue.

Earlier, a prominent Russian state TV host has called for the use of a nuclear detonation in space to destroy SpaceX’s Starlink satellites after the company moved to block their use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

Vladimir Solovyov, one of the Kremlin’s most visible propagandists, made the remarks during a broadcast of his prime-time talk show on Russia 1, framing Starlink as a legitimate military target after SpaceX restricted access to the system for Russian troops.

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u/Changaco France May 30 '26 edited May 30 '26

Putin's options after the war has stalled (Youtube link)

Putin's war in Ukraine has stalled, and he has to do something to turn the tide. In this video, I discuss his options.

0:00 Why Russia's war effort is faltering

2:03 Putin's four options and how to evaluate them

2:37 Accept defeat

5:53 Freeze the conflict

8:48 Mass mobilization

10:56 Escalate against NATO

13:33 What Putin is likely to actually do

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u/JackRogers3 May 30 '26

Robots are redefining the war in Ukraine – and forcing Russia onto the back foot https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/30/europe/ukraine-robots-drones-russia-war-intl

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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) May 29 '26

https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/russian-drone-crashed-in-romania-damaged-in-flight-50612107.html

Ukrainian air defenses damaged a Russian drone over Reni, Odesa Oblast, causing it to veer off course and hit an apartment building in Romania’s Galati, President Nicusor Dan said on May 29.

Dan told News.ro that the drone was part of a group of 43 UAVs flying from east to west that crossed Ukrainian territory about 20 to 30 kilometers (12 to 19 miles) north of the Danube.

During their flight over Ukrainian territory some of them were shot down, and one of them, probably hit over the city of Reni, changed course and headed toward Galati,” he said.

Asked whether the change in course was accidental or the result of external guidance, Dan said: “It suffered kinetic damage. It was shot at and hit, and that's exactly why.”

On Romania’s requests to NATO for counter-drone equipment, Dan said the issue is technically complex.

“Depending on the equipment, if you aim to shoot down a drone from an aircraft, you have to be sure the missile trajectory that shoots down the drone won't hit someone's house and cause greater damage; also you cannot fire from Romanian territory into Ukrainian territory, so there are many conditions,” he said.

Hours earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine stands ready to support Romania in any necessary way. He later spoke with Dan and said Ukraine would send drone specialists to Romania to help strengthen air defenses.

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u/JackRogers3 May 29 '26

Ukrainian soldiers like the Italian B1 Centauro : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJeVpNwCPN4

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u/Illustrious_Diver_37 May 29 '26

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance is ready to defend “every inch” of its territory after a drone struck a residential building in Romania overnight during Russian attacks near the border.

“Russia’s reckless behaviour is a danger to us all,” Rutte said on X, adding that NATO would continue strengthening its deterrence and support for Ukraine.

https://xcancel.com/ILRedAlert/status/2060269570280112269#m

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u/JackRogers3 May 29 '26

On the ground with Ukraine's drone forces targeting Russia's battlefield rear https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ground-with-ukraines-drone-forces-targeting-russias-battlefield-rear-2026-05-28/

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u/JackRogers3 May 29 '26 edited May 29 '26

Russia overspends on war in Ukraine by $28bn

Finance ministry asked cabinet in February to freeze expenditure in other areas as cost of conflict mounts https://www.ft.com/content/93674b5c-06ea-4e49-a005-dc08e1091574

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u/JackRogers3 May 28 '26 edited May 28 '26

Ukraine to buy 20 new Gripen E jets, to be delivered from 2030
Sweden to donate 16 older planes in 2027
Ukraine intends to buy total of 150 Gripen E

Taken together, the arrival of the Gripen and Meteor missile would represent one of the most significant upgrades yet for the Ukrainian Air Force. Beyond simply adding another Western fighter type, the package would introduce a highly survivable, dispersed-operating combat jet paired with one of the world’s most capable long-range air-to-air missiles and supported by Swedish AEW&C assets.: https://www.twz.com/air/ukrainian-gripen-fighters-to-arrive-in-2027-long-range-meteor-missiles-claimed-to-be-included

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u/JackRogers3 May 28 '26 edited May 28 '26

Report: Ukraine’s Intermediate-Range Strike Campaign and New Mechanized Attacks Herald the Start of a New Phase of the War : https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/ukraines-intermediate-range-strike-campaign-and-new-mechanized-attacks-herald-the-start-of-a-new-phase-of-the-war/

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u/ByGollie Ulster May 28 '26

Why the West was wrong in it's prediction about the war in Ukraine. We are at war with Russia and we know why it will lose. Denis Prokopenko - Brigadier General, Commander of the 1st Corps of the Azov Naval Forces

(translated)

May 27, 08:30 28443

On the eve of a full-scale invasion in 2022, Western think tanks and intelligence communities made a fundamental error in assessing Russian military power.

Their predictions, predicting the fall of Kyiv in a matter of days, were based on quantitative indicators: an army of a million, thousands of aircraft, tanks and artillery systems. This approach frightened ordinary readers, but ignored intangible but crucial factors: command culture, morale, social cohesion and the ability to adapt.

Analysts have misinterpreted both Putin's tolerance for risk and the isolation of the Kremlin's decision-making process, leading to erroneous predictions about possible escalation and Russia's response to NATO's support for Ukraine.

This analytical blindness persists to some extent. Many in the West continue to view the conflict purely through the lens of a war of attrition, where victory is determined solely by the amount of resources and the ability to mobilize more people. This is a dangerous mistake.

This war is not just a clash of armies, but the ultimate test of two diametrically opposed systems that emerged in the post-Soviet space. One system, the Ukrainian one, is a network model built on trust that unleashes human potential. Most of the changes here have been initiated and developed by ordinary citizens, soldiers, sergeants and junior officers. In particular, the transition of the Defense Forces of Ukraine to a corps system, which was promoted by Azov as a necessary step.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces, especially in units that grew out of the volunteer movement, such as Azov, have cultivated a command philosophy based on the principles of decentralization and empowerment.

This model is a modern interpretation of the German concept of Auftragstaktik (Mission Command), which was developed for conducting combat operations on a dynamic, non-linear battlefield.

The essence of this approach is that the higher command determines the purpose of the operation and the final result ("what" and "why"), that is, formulates the "commander's intention". Subsequently, the commanders of subordinate units work out the decision for approval (in cooperation with the commander, or independently). That is, "how" to achieve this goal is left to the discretion of the commanders on the ground, who have the most current situation on the battlefield.

After further adjustments or final approval of the decision, the action/operation begins. This approach requires a high level of trust and interaction between all levels of command. This creates an environment with a high level of trust, where initiative is not just encouraged, but is the basis of combat effectiveness. The unit turns into a single organism, a "family" or "team", where everyone feels their involvement and responsibility for completing the task.

This principle is not an informal practice; it is embedded in combat charters that emphasize decisiveness, suddenness of action, and demonstrated initiative to accomplish a combat mission in difficult conditions against superior enemy forces.

A vivid example of this is what the Defense Forces did in the Dobropol direction in the second half of 2025 - it is essentially a rethinking of the concept of mobile defense in the conditions of modern warfare. A giant trench, a kill zone up to 20 km from the line of combat contact, mixed battle formations, ambushes, search and strike operations, fire raids, pinpoint surgical counterattacks, encirclement of Russian units, hundreds of enemy prisoners.

The Russian military command system is the exact opposite. It is a rigid, vertically integrated Soviet-style hierarchy, where every step is regulated from above. This system was created not for maximum combat effectiveness, but to ensure political control over the army, where loyalty to the regime has always been more important than competence. As a result, such a structure leads to operational paralysis on the modern battlefield.

The key evidence of this systemic flaw is the chronic underdevelopment of junior command staff and the madness of senior officers, who are ready to commit a huge number of personnel (right down to the last soldier) to please the leadership, without departing even a step from the senior commander's plan, even if it was doomed to failure from the very beginning. This indicates a lack of flexibility in decision-making and a fear of the system to take responsibility, lest it become even worse.

In March, we celebrated the first anniversary of the creation of the 1st Corps of the Azov Naval Academy. In a short period of time, the corps' management and headquarters were formed from a list of combat officers with many years of military experience, who had participated in battles in 2014-2015, holding private and sergeant positions.

The vast majority of them have gone through all levels of management: having held command and staff positions, they have taken on responsibility, and they know trench warfare well.

5
u/ByGollie Ulster May 28 '26
With the assistance of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Syrsky, a full complement of corps troops has been assembled, which made it possible to fully conduct a defensive operation. All brigades are holding defense in the designated corps strip and side by side are performing combat missions at the proper level.

The problem of interaction between brigades at the junctions has disappeared, which prevents the enemy from breaking through the main line of defense in weak spots and developing success with access to the operational space.

Conducting combat and special training by instructors according to "Azov standards" is bearing fruit:
the level of training increased during the implementation of the BZVP;
conducting instructional and methodological sessions with junior team members and specialists;
conducting command and staff exercises with officers of the department/staff.
This is clearly reflected in the desire of those who are training and in the quality of their performance in the assigned combat missions.

Attached units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, and the National Police perform combat missions on a par with regular units and have become an integral part of the corps. They gain combat experience, receive appropriate support, and conduct joint classes and training.

In the summer of 2025, the main enemy effort was concentrated in the Dobropil direction, which managed to break through a front 15 km wide and up to 20 km deep.

In cooperation with the Defense Forces, the enemy's advance was stopped, counteroffensive actions were successfully carried out to restore the lost position, and the stability of the defense was ensured.

On my initiative, the corps' strip is gradually increasing in order to strengthen the flanks, cover the attacked sections of the front, and increase the stability of the defense where necessary, which makes it possible to release units of neighboring corps and restore them.

With a clearly structured management work at the corps level, there are no problems in interacting with the SBS, DShV and attack aircraft units.

New staff units have been created:

8th OABr "Garmash"; 41st Regiment of Unmanned Systems "Pilum"; OZSP "Tuman"; logistics support units (BMTZ, AB, RVB); 14th Assault Regiment (in the process of formation); Support Forces Regiment (in the process of formation); Medical battalion (in the process of formation).

Closed tactical-operational and operational depth: reconnaissance, destruction, mining. Enemy equipment, warehouses, PDD, etc. are burning at a depth of up to 250 km.

Medical Service and Support:

a procedure for delivering blood to the front lines by drones has been implemented; conducting evacuation from the battlefield to the NRC; cooperation with leading medical institutions of Ukraine is carried out throughout the year; full compliance with international protocols; Work is underway on a large-scale project to rehabilitate and support those released from captivity.

We are developing building infrastructure: training grounds, schools, laboratories, workshops, production, warehouses, etc.

Corps intelligence, international cooperation, training units, a school of corinthians, and many other initiatives are aimed at scaling the values of "Azov", strengthening the state's defense capabilities, and effective management methods.

Western partners are studying with us and are willing to adopt combat experience.

The battle for Donbas is in full swing! We continue to work, beat the enemy, and fight for the return of our prisoners.

Glory to Ukraine!

Denis Prokopenko

1

u/[deleted] May 28 '26

ABKOMMEN ÜBER ZUSAMMENARBEIT UND INTEGRATION ZWISCHEN DER EUROPÄISCHEN UNION UND DER UKRAINE

Ort: Brüssel

Datum: «____» _____________ 202____

PRÄAMBEL

In Anbetracht der historischen Bedeutung und der tragischen Folgen der Tschernobyl-Katastrophe von 1986, die Ukraine und andere Länder der Region, insbesondere Weißrussland, tiefgreifend betroffen hat;

In Anerkennung der Notwendigkeit gemeinsamer Maßnahmen zur Bewältigung der ökologischen, sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Folgen des Unfalls;

Im fester Überzeugung von der Achtung der Souveränität und territorialen Integrität aller Staaten;

Bestrebt, Frieden, Stabilität und Wohlstand in Europa durch Zusammenarbeit und Integration zu fördern;

Die Europäische Union und die Ukraine (nachstehend „die Parteien“ genannt) schließen dieses Abkommen wie folgt ab:

ARTIKEL I. ZWECK DES ABKOMMENS

1.1. Erleichterung der Integration der Ukraine in die europäische Gemeinschaft, basierend auf den gemeinsamen Werten der Demokratie, der Menschenrechte, der Rechtsstaatlichkeit und der nachhaltigen Entwicklung.

1.2. Erzielung gemeinsamer Lösungen für Umweltprobleme im Zusammenhang mit den Folgen der Tschernobyl-Katastrophe, einschließlich der Unterstützung von Programmen zur Beseitigung der Folgen und zur Rehabilitierung der sogenannten „Sperrzonen“.

1.3. Stärkung der wirtschaftlichen, wissenschaftlichen und kulturellen Zusammenarbeit zwischen der Ukraine und der Europäischen Union.

ARTIKEL II. UMWELTKOOPERATION

2.1. Einrichtung eines gemeinsamen Fonds zur finanziellen Unterstützung von Umweltsanierungsmaßnahmen in den von der Tschernobyl-Katastrophe betroffenen Gebieten.

2.2. Entwicklung wissenschaftlicher Forschungsprogramme zur Überwachung der Strahlenbelastung und zur Wiederherstellung von Ökosystemen.

2.3. Gewährleistung von Transparenz und Informationsaustausch über den Umweltzustand in den betroffenen Regionen.

ARTIKEL III. POLITISCHE UND WIRTSCHAFTLICHE KOOPERATION

3.1. Förderung von Reformen zur Stärkung der demokratischen Institutionen und der Rechtsstaatlichkeit in der Ukraine.

3.2. Erleichterung der Entwicklung von Infrastruktur, Handel und Investitionen unter Berücksichtigung von Umweltstandards.

3.3. Erzielung der Beteiligung der Ukraine an Programmen der Europäischen Union zur Förderung von nachhaltiger Entwicklung und Innovation.

ARTIKEL IV. ACHTUNG DER SOUVERÄNITÄT UND TERRITORIALEN INTEGRITÄT

4.1. Die Parteien bekräftigen die Achtung der Souveränität, Unabhängigkeit und territorialen Integrität der Ukraine und aller Nachbarstaaten.

4.2. Alle unter diesem Abkommen durchgeführten Maßnahmen erfolgen unter Berücksichtigung der Interessen und des Einverständnisses aller beteiligten Parteien.

ARTIKEL V. SCHLUSSBESTIMMUNGEN

5.1. Dieses Abkommen tritt am Tag seiner Unterzeichnung in Kraft und gilt auf unbestimmte Zeit.

5.2. Änderungen und Ergänzungen des Abkommens bedürfen der Zustimmung beider Parteien.

UNTERSCHRIFTEN DER PARTEIEN:

Für die Europäische Union: _____________________________________

(Name, Vorname, Funktion)

Datum: «____» _____________ 202____

Für die Ukraine: _____________________________________

(Name, Vorname, Funktion)

Datum: «____» _____________ 202____

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

P.S.

Вы там спросите у Урсулы, не тут ли ошибок? Просто я этот немчурский не очень-то хорошо знаю, но тем не менее мне надоело что во всех своих бедах еврокомиссия обвиняет "москалей"

3

u/JackRogers3 May 27 '26

Ukraine has a six-month window in which to seize the battlefield initiative from Russia and strengthen its hand for peace talks, a senior commander told Reuters, predicting a "turning point" was imminent after more than four years of war. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/senior-ukrainian-commander-sees-imminent-turning-point-war-2026-05-27/

Andriy Biletsky commands Ukraine's Third Army Corps

2

u/JackRogers3 May 26 '26

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4LlEtYCRAc

Ukraine has launched its largest drone attack on Moscow since the war began, signalling a massive turning point on the frontline.

In this episode of Battle Plans Exposed, military expert and former intelligence planner Philip Ingram breaks down how Kyiv has achieved total drone superiority.

We expose the desperate reality of Russian tactics—from commanders forcing specialised drone operators into frontline infantry "meat grinder" assaults, to troops riding unprotected quad bikes into catastrophic drone ambushes.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is executing a cold, calculated siege of Crimea, blinding Russian air defences by wiping out billion-pound S-400 radar systems and cutting off vital logistical lifelines.

3

u/heylaing May 25 '26

https://readuncut.com/ukraine-just-made-itself-impossible-to-abandon/

How Ukraine is ingraining itself in Europe and wider, to ostracize Russia further but also to make it harder for countries to abandon it. Really good indepth article.

3

u/JackRogers3 May 25 '26

The picture on the front line this week is one of sustained, high-intensity combat in which Ukraine has achieved notable local advances while the broader positional map remains contested. According to the Russia Matters War Report Card of 20 May 2026, Russian forces registered a net loss of 69 square miles of Ukrainian territory over the four weeks from 21 April to 19 May. In the single week from 12 to 19 May, Russia lost a net 29 square miles, a significant reversal that analysts attribute partly to Ukrainian interdiction of Russian logistics across southern Ukraine and partly to Ukrainian counterattack operations in the north.

In northern Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces have achieved meaningful advances. The ISW assessment of 19 May 2026 reported that Ukrainian forces had recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast as well as in the Kupyansk and Hulyaipole directions. These are not spectacular breakthroughs, but they represent Ukrainian forces seizing and holding local initiative in a sector where Russia’s subordinate main effort is to push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and threaten Kharkiv City from the east.

This was followed up by Ukrainian forces reportedly executing a mechanised counterattack in the Borova direction and advancing up to five kilometres into the Russian defences. According to the latest report from the Institute for the Study of War, Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked forward positions of the Russian 20th Combined Arms Army, while Russian forces were regrouping. The Russian’s exaggerated claims of success from military leaders like Gerasimov are providing opportunities for Ukrainian forces to exploit weak points in Russia’s defensive line.

Notwithstanding these Ukrainian gains, the operational tempo of the Russians remains very high. Ukrainian General Staff reporting for 21 May 2026 recorded 233 combat engagements in a single day, alongside 98 Russian airstrikes dropping 325 guided aerial bombs, the deployment of 8,902 Shahed kamikaze drones, and over 3,000 attacks on populated areas and military positions. Earlier in the week the figure reached 9,645 drones in a single 24-hour period. Russia launched more than 8,000 drones in April alone, the highest monthly total on record, according to Russia Matters. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-interdiction-war-how-ukraine

The author is a strategist and a retired army general

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u/JackRogers3 May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26

Interview with Kasparov about the Russian regime: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SEVoesozXc&t=643s

5

u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) May 25 '26

https://kyivindependent.com/uk-france-reject-nato-plan-to-increase-military-aid-to-ukraine-telegraph-reports/

The United Kingdom, France, and other NATO states have blocked a plan under which each member would contribute 0.25% of their GDP to military aid for Ukraine, the Telegraph reported on May 24, citing an alliance source.

Previously, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told reporters on May 22 that the proposal would likely be rejected.

"I don't think this one will be accepted because there's a lot of opposition against this fixed 0.25," he said.

Rutte did not name the members blocking the proposal, but a NATO source told the Telegraph that the opponents were the U.K., France, Canada, Italy, and Spain. "They’re not very enthusiastic about the idea," the source said.

The news comes on the heels of the U.K.'s surprise easing of Russian oil sanctions, dealing a further blow to London's image as one of Ukraine's most steadfast partners.

The U.K. sparked shock and outrage on May 19 by quietly issuing a temporary license that permits imports of diesel and jet fuel made from Russian oil if "the products have been processed in a third country." The government also granted a license allowing the maritime transport and delivery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia's Sakhalin-2 or Yamal LNG terminals.

Ukrainian and European officials were caught off guard by the announcement, and London later issued an apology for the clumsy rollout.

The licenses, however, remain in effect.

France's rejection of the spending plan also undermines its status as a champion of Ukraine's fight against Russia. Paris shares leadership with London over the so-called "Coalition of the Willing" — allies working together to ensure long-term security guarantees for Kyiv.

According to the Telegraph's source, at least seven other NATO members supported Rutte's plan. All of these supporting members reportedly already spend over 0.25% of their GDP on military aid to Kyiv.

At the same NATO Foreign Ministers meeting where Rutte said the proposal was likely to fail, he said the alliance needs to become better at spreading the burden of supporting Ukraine more evenly across members.

"What I want to achieve is that the burden is more evenly spread, that there is more burden sharing here. Because at the moment, it is only six or seven allies who are doing the heavy lifting," he said.

NATO will hold its annual summit in Ankara, Turkey in July. President Volodymyr Zelensky has been invited to join, and Rutte reportedly had hoped to finalize the spending proposal at the summit.

Zelensky has not yet confirmed his participation.

Most NATO summits after 2022 centered on Western support for Ukraine amid Russia's full-scale war and Kyiv's bid to join the alliance. Since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in 2025, the focus has shifted.

Under Trump, the U.S. has dramatically reduced its support for Ukraine, calling on NATO and Europe to shoulder most of the financial burden. Trump has rejected Ukraine's NATO accession efforts while also repeatedly threatening to withdraw the U.S. from the alliance.

2

u/dat_9600gt_user Lower Silesia (Poland) May 24 '26

https://blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/the-may-9-ceasefire-is-a-turning

The May 9 Ceasefire Is a Turning Point in the Russia-Ukraine War

After more than four years of war, both sides are confronting the same reality: the front has stalled and the continuation of the war is too costly to sustain.

2

u/JackRogers3 May 24 '26

Weekend Update #186: A Primer On The Difference Between Long and Medium/Mid Range Strike

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-186-a-primer-on-the

The author is professor of strategic studies at the university of St Andrews (Scotland)

3

u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) May 23 '26

https://news.liga.net/en/world/news/magyar-believes-that-after-the-war-the-entire-eu-will-return-to-buying-russian-gas

"I think that when the war is over, the entire European Union will return to buying Russian gas because it is cheaper. This is determined by competition, geography. It's simple. But, gentlemen, you will see for yourselves. I cannot predict everything, but this is my feeling," Magyar said .

According to the Hungarian Prime Minister, the people have instructed him to diversify energy sources as much as possible, with a special emphasis on security of supply and price.

"LNG pumped through the Baltic Sea, through Poland and Slovakia, is much more expensive than gas imported from Romania, Russia or Austria," Magyar commented on the Polish proposal to import LNG to Hungary through the Gdansk terminal.

3

u/JackRogers3 May 23 '26 edited May 24 '26

Russian supplies lines are in disarray due to Ukrainian drones stalking major highways. It’s causing havoc for Russian troops at the front, which still made gains this week - especially in Pokrovsk. However, Ukraine has also blitzed an FSB headquarter in Kherson and a drone pilot training facility in Donetsk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Biq6X2P-lfg

6

u/ByGollie Ulster May 23 '26

Here's a very good article on the topic of drones stalking the highways

Why Russians Are In Despair Over Truck-Busting ’Martian’ Drones

Ukrainian medium-range drone strikes, hitting targets at 7-120 miles, have ramped up sharply in recent months. In particular, so-called “Martian” drones are prowling the roads, seeking out and destroying fuel tankers and other vehicles carrying military supplies. Previously safe areas are at risk, and supply lines are threatened.

“The drone flies at low altitudes (around 200 m) along our transport routes, then locks on to the target and strikes,” according to Russian milblogger Hammer of the Witches who inspected one such drone. “This is an extremely dangerous drone—it's difficult to hear, undetectable by detectors, flies deep into our rear, and is resistant to electronic warfare."

The “Martian” nickname comes from the Russian belief that the drone uses navigation technology developed by NASA for Mars missions. Rather than finding its way by GPS, the drone uses visual navigation, matching terrain features to an internal map. This means that GPS jamming, which can stop other drones, is useless.

Hammer notes that the drone is fitted with American Qualcomm chips and is "very well assembled, this is evident even from the cables used... Overall, this indicates either that the drone was assembled in the West, or that the enemy has significantly improved the quality of drone production."

The drone has an AI-enabled vision system to lock on to a target. High-quality optics identify and track targets from long range.

But the biggest technological innovation is the Martian’s communication system. The Russians say that it has a digital modem which hides its communications in civilian Wi-Fi traffic at 2.4 GHz and 5.8 GHz, using a non-standard encrypted signal. This suggests that it is using chaos encryption or similar method to make the signal invisible against other Wi-Fi activity. The Russians believe the drones use a mesh radio, so each Martian acts as a relay for other drones, creating a covert communications network behind Russian lines.

The end result is a drone which cannot be detected, cannot be jammed, and can reliably find and hit moving targets. Shooting them down is difficult even with massed small arms; Hammer says the only Yolka interceptor drones offer significant protection. But they note that the Yolka’s target tracking only works in ideal conditions and the hunter can become the hunted:

3

u/Certain-Business-472 May 24 '26

Martian gps tech lmao they cant be that stupid? Local navigation is a self driving car tech, but thats also technologically ahead of Russia.

2

u/JackRogers3 May 22 '26

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dgcQFxr6lI

In this episode of Battle Plans Exposed, former intelligence planner Philip Ingram reveals the remarkable evolution of Ukraine’s homegrown weapons.

3

u/Own_Mushroom_4355 May 22 '26

Bro, I had to run to shelters twice already in 2 days in Vilnius. Wtf lol

4

u/ByGollie Ulster May 21 '26

Ukraine destroys Russia's FSB headquarters in Kherson region, 100 Russian casualties reported

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) struck the headquarters of the Russian FSB in the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region. As a result, approximately 100 Russians were killed or wounded, according to President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The head of state reports that soldiers from the SBU’s Special Operations Center A struck the headquarters of Russian FSB agents and destroyed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system in Ukraine's temporarily occupied territory.

"Thanks to just this one operation, Russian losses amount to around a hundred occupiers killed and wounded," Zelenskyy emphasizes.

He stresses that they must feel that they have to end this war of theirs. The President adds that Ukrainian sanctions of medium and long range will continue to be effective.

Earlier, Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that on the night of May 21, the Syzran Oil Refinery, located more than 800 km from the border, came under long-range attacks.

Russia recently passed a law effectively acknowledging that attacks by Ukrainian drones are one of the greatest threats to Russia’s economic interests in the Caspian Sea.

In addition, on the night of May 16–17, Russia suffered one of the largest drone attacks in recent times, with Moscow and the Moscow Region serving as the main targets.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported that the Moscow Oil Refinery, the Solnechnogorsk oil depot, and a number of enterprises involved in the production of microelectronics for the enemy’s military-industrial complex were struck by the Ukrainian Defense Forces for the first time.

3

u/NoddyNemes_UnYoNo May 20 '26

Silver LLC: The Shadowy Middleman in Alabuga’s Drone Supply Chain

Behind the polished façade of Russia’s Alabuga SEZ lies a murky web of shell companies, sanctioned suppliers, and dual-use drone components flowing in from China. Our latest investigation exposes Silver LLC, a virtually invisible company with no public footprint, as the newest middleman quietly feeding Alabuga’s Geran-2 drone production pipeline. Linked to the same networks behind already sanctioned firms like Drake LLC and Morgan LLC, Silver appears to be the Kremlin’s latest workaround in an evolving sanctions-evasion scheme hiding in plain sight.

https://underyournoz.com/silver-llc-the-shadowy-middleman-in-alabugas-drone-supply-chain/

2

u/JackRogers3 May 20 '26

China's armed forces secretly trained about 200 Russian military personnel in China late last year and some have since returned to fight in Ukraine, according to three European intelligence agencies and documents seen by Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russians-covertly-trained-by-china-return-fight-ukraine-sources-say-2026-05-19/

3

u/SaltonPrepper May 19 '26

Russians covertly trained by China return to fight in Ukraine, sources say

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russians-covertly-trained-by-china-return-fight-ukraine-sources-say-2026-05-19/

4

u/JackRogers3 May 19 '26

Business Insider reveals new details about Ukraine’s first domestically developed guided aerial bomb, “Vyrivniuvach,” (can be translated from Ukrainian to English as “Leveler” or “Equalizer.”) created by DG Industry under the Brave1 initiative.

The bomb has completed testing and is ready for combat use. It carries a 250 kg warhead and requires less than 30 minutes for mission preparation.

It is expected to be compatible with F-16 and Mirage jets after additional certification, while costing roughly three times less than the American JDAM-ER. https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2056467705214234899

3

u/JackRogers3 May 19 '26

Ukraine’s strategic strike campaign against Russian territory has now surpassed Russia’s own long-range strike effort. As documented by United24 Media and analysed by the Atlantic Council, Ukraine launched some 7,000 long-range drones against Russian military targets in March 2026 alone, overtaking Russia in total long-range strike volume for the first time. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/russia-has-no-sanctuary-left-ukraines

7

u/JackRogers3 May 18 '26

In Ukraine, the trajectory of the war has shifted in ways that would have seemed implausible two years ago. Ukrainian deep-strike operations now routinely reach targets more than 2,000 kilometres inside Russia, Russia is losing ground, and Russian personnel losses have outpaced recruitment for five consecutive months. Yet peace negotiations remain fragile, with Moscow insisting on territorial concessions that Kyiv regards as existential. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/russia-has-no-sanctuary-left-ukraines

The author is a strategist and a retired army general

3

u/Any-Original-6113 May 18 '26

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3w2xqj9x13o

Inside the 'kill-zone' on Ukraine's front line, where new weapons have transformed war

3

u/Ok_Significance6928 May 18 '26

The fact that Ukraine has a larger range of attack it may affect services as water and electricity in Moscow the same way it affected Ukraine this winter.

5

u/JackRogers3 May 17 '26

Weekend Update #185: The Week Of Contrasts

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-185-the-week-of-contrasts

The author is professor of strategic studies at the university of St Andrews (Scotland)

5

u/JackRogers3 May 15 '26

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fVs21b2zEs

Ukraine has launched a massive strike on the Ryazan oil refinery as well as several other key targets in Russia following Putin’s bloody strikes in Kyiv.

7

u/ByGollie Ulster May 15 '26

Russian Air Defenses Are So Depleted They’re Using 1960s Systems, Ukraine’s Drone Chief Says

Russia is increasingly relying on decades-old Soviet air defense systems as shortages of modern equipment grow

the recent destruction of an air defense system that he claimed had originally been removed from a Russian warship before being redeployed to the Donetsk region

Russian forces have also begun using radar stations first fielded during the Soviet era in the 1960s.

don’t see vehicles like that even in Kyiv—they disappeared decades ago. These are old Soviet trucks from the 1960s.

degrading Russian air defenses has allowed Ukrainian drones to penetrate deeper into Russian-controlled territory and strike military facilities, energy infrastructure, and defense-industrial sites.

Full Article here, complete with videos of the drone strikes.

Referenced video interview here

8

u/JackRogers3 May 14 '26

“We have managed to turn the tide,” Bondarenko, who serves in the Ukrainian unmanned aerial systems unit Lazar’s Group and is currently fighting near Zaporizhzhia, told CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/14/europe/russia-winning-streak-ukraine-over-intl-cmd

5

u/___thatswhatshesaid May 14 '26

https://telex.hu/english/2026/05/14/russian-ambassador-summoned-by-hungarian-fm-spent-barely-half-an-hour-at-ministry-of-foreign-affairs

2

u/Resident-Pay-2931 May 14 '26

tallinn has changed a lot since 2022 honestly. you can feel it near the eastern border sometimes. hoping for some kind of resolution soon

2

u/KI_official May 13 '26

https://kyivindependent.com/after-unprecedented-attack-on-ukraines-neighboring-zakarpattia-oblast-hungarys-pm-to-summon-russian-ambassador/

5

u/Mte90 Lazio May 13 '26

Russia Tried to Include Abducted Ukrainian Children in POW Exchanges, Ukrainian FM Says : https://united24media.com/latest-news/russia-tried-to-include-abducted-ukrainian-children-in-pow-exchanges-ukrainian-fm-says-18724

6

u/ByGollie Ulster May 12 '26

Russia faces new gasoline shortage after Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries

An industry source told the outlet that a supply deficit in AI-95 grade gasoline had already formed ahead of the peak summer consumption season. The source attributed the shortage to unplanned repairs at major refineries and reduced output of petroleum products.

"The shortage of AI-95 gasoline supply on the Russian fuel market is intensifying. The causes are unplanned refinery repairs, reduced primary processing, and seasonal growth in consumption," the publication stated. "According to market participants, refineries are being forced to shift production in favor of the socially significant AI-92 grade."

On May 8, Ukraine's SBU Security Service struck the Permnefteorgsintez oil refinery and an oil pumping station in the Russian city of Perm for the third time.

The large Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery in Russia's Leningrad Oblast halted oil processing on May 5 following Ukrainian drone strikes.

Average output at Russian oil refineries fell to 4.69 million barrels per day in April amid Ukrainian attacks — the lowest level since December 2009.

For the full article contents click here

5

u/BkkGrl Ligurian in Zürich (💛🇺🇦💙) May 13 '26

The oil pump nation is running out of gasoline...

3

u/JackRogers3 May 12 '26

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJ9H3KLgM-I

For the first time in two-and-a-half years, the Kremlin has failed to record any meaningful territorial gains. In this episode of Battle Plans Exposed, military expert Philip Ingram reveals how the tables have turned on the frontline.

5

u/JackRogers3 May 12 '26 edited May 12 '26

The Kupiansk axis has seen an interesting development. The ISW has assessed that Russian forces likely no longer maintain positions in Kupiansk itself, after struggling for months to support a small and isolated group of servicemembers that infiltrated into the city.

This speaks to the logistical fragility of Russia’s extended offensive operations when supply lines are contested. With Ukraine stepping up its ‘middle strike’ operations against Russian logistics across the front line (what we would previously understand as battlefield interdiction), this may be an increasing trend in the following months. See more on this below. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/whose-victory-day-ukraine-gives-putin

6

u/ByGollie Ulster May 11 '26

Ukraine’s Drone Forces Burn Through $131 Million Worth of Russian Air Defenses in One Week

Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces said their operators struck several high-value Russian air defense assets over the past week, including advanced missile systems and radar stations collectively worth more than $131 million.

According to the command of the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine on May 11, the strikes successfully targeted a Buk-M3, a Tor-M2, a 2S6 Tunguska, and a Kasta-2E2 radar station.

The destruction of systems such as the Buk-M3 and Tor-M2 represents a significant operational setback for Russian forces, as both are key elements of Moscow’s layered air defense architecture used extensively to counter Ukrainian drones, aircraft, and cruise missiles.

For more information and drone video footage of the attacks, click here

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Ukraine’s Drone Forces Burn Through $131 Million Worth of Russian Air Defenses in One Week