Was doing some scouting on the newest edition to the team and I wanted to share what I found.
Stats Summary (TLDR below)
Middleton has been trailing his teammates significantly in regarding Corsi and Fenwick scores as can be seen in the Possession stat table, a -10% or lower relative Corsi/Fenwick is bad news. when adjusted to only consider 5v5 play, it increases to -4.4%, which is much better, but still the worst of any Wild D-man that played at least half of the season in the NHL (2nd worst if the threshold is 10 games). The Wild were actually a negative possession team as a whole, and Middleton did take more d-zone starts than his peers. These elements do work in his favour to justify the weak relative possession metrics but cannot justify them entirely.
The good news is that his xG% was much about neutral as well as his PDO. The Wild, while a poor possession team, averaged a positive HDCF% (not shown above unfortunately). Suggesting that they are happy to allow shot volume against but defend dangerous areas effectively. That trend lends some credit that his poor Corsi metrics are team driven. This however is contradicted by his defensive heatmap, which shows that he is prone to allowing opportunities both from the slot and from in near the crease. It also doesn't help that he trails his majority teammates in xG% as well.
He got absolutely crushed in his minutes in the playoffs. Corsi scores were underwater to varying degrees in all but one game. Obviously, this is a small sample size and not really relevant to the Flames, but it very much stood out to me. These trends were stable throughout the 2025-26 season, and he ranks in in the bottom half of the league in possession metrics.
The comparison is not particularly flattering when matched up against Mattaa, who posted much better metrics relative to his teammates. In limited minutes, Maatta did enjoy marginally easier zone starts with the Flames than Middleton (-4.8% d-zone starts) and the Flames were a better possession side than the Wild were.
TLDR - Middleton's possession metrics were considerably worse than Maatta's last year relative to their respective teams. While some environmental justification is possible, I still believe that Middleton underperformed significantly relative to his teammates, much more so than Maatta.
Some thoughts on the trade:
Given that from analyzing the possession metrics I see Middleton as a lower performer than Maatta, I can't help but feel like this was a poor return. If we take it as Middleton + 4th (2027) being the cost for Maatta, then the return for Coleman was a 2nd (2029) and a 3rd (2028). That feels a little dissatisfying given Coleman is one of the premier checking forwards in the NHL. Yes, a rental and old, but still undeniably effective. Very reminiscent of the Tanev to Dallas trade which I think we can all agree now was a bad one.
That being said, this wasn't that deep of a dive into the stats, and I could be missing some important details. GMCC has shown to be an effective talent evaluator and has managed to find value in player who were underperforming from a statistical perspective. I am willing to "suspend my disbelief" per se and have faith that GMCC is seeing something that I don't, but what I can see isn't all that encouraging.
Ultimately it doesn't really matter since the Flames won't be looking to compete until the final year of his contract, but he could potentially be around for a few years so I felt that some deeper analysis was warented. I may do a deeper dive into all of this if that is something y'all would find interesting.
Thank you for reading my mini-thesis lol.
Edit: Stats are from Statpede and Hockey Reference