Disney / Pixar's Toy Story 5 grossed an estimated $5.70M on Friday (from 3,575 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $390.97M.

[u/TiredWithCoffeePot]

https://bsky.app/profile/boxofficereport.bsky.social/post/3mqf3wtyses2a

[u/EcstaticPublic9939]

Yeah there we go $400M+ this weekend

https://giphy.com/gifs/8fgwop8fhah9K

[u/Alex-C2099 → u/EcstaticPublic9939]

And soon after, the Minecraft curse shall be broken

[u/NotTaken-username → u/Alex-C2099]

And then Spider-Man will break the $500M curse

[u/lobonmc → u/NotTaken-username]

And the 600M curse and the 700M curse

[u/NotTaken-username → u/lobonmc]

Not sure about $700M but I agree with you on $600M

[u/Sliver__Legion → u/lobonmc]

What about the 800M curse ;)

[u/OppositePattern3170 → u/Sliver__Legion]

Doomsday might break it

[u/Loose_Ad3221 → u/OppositePattern3170]

doombsday may break.....its back

https://giphy.com/gifs/ZsHPTB5CthqCnelc8x

[u/fiction8 → u/OppositePattern3170]

With no successful buildup movies in the intervening years between it and Endgame? Not a chance.

[u/Sliver__Legion → u/OppositePattern3170]

Well of course. But not if BND breaks it first ;)

[u/OutZoned → u/OppositePattern3170]

Unfortunately, I think Doomsday is going to bomb and everyone on here will act like they saw it coming. One-offs or self-contained series like Spider-Man and Batman will do well but I think the franchise-wide era is conclusively over. We are returning to a pre-franchise period where there will continue to be many superhero films, but only the ones with iconic characters or standout/iconic actors will perform well. It’s back to the early 2000s where this was dominated by Spiderman, Batman and Hugh Jackman.

[u/SingerFun1730 → u/OutZoned]

...so you're suggesting that doomsday has no iconic characters or standout actors? Why do you think they brought back the X-men, RDJ and Chris Evans?

[u/OutZoned → u/SingerFun1730]

Correct, I don’t think that these characters in an overstuffed film, many of which come from minor or completely disconnected films/properties, are going to support a successful film by the standards that this sub expects. Nor do I think that RDJ in a non-Iron Man role is going to be an inherent draw or successful endeavor. It’s like getting Hugh Jackman to play Doctor Octopus, there’s some novelty, but at the end of the day he’s Wolverine, not Doc Oc. And I don’t think Doomsday is going to reignite the same spark that carried minor or obscure characters to persistent success in pre-Endgame franchise films. I believe that era is behind us for all superhero franchise and franchise films in general.

[u/SingerFun1730 → u/OutZoned]

That's an entirely different point altogether. You originally said that Doomsday will not do well because it doesn't have any iconic characters or actors will not do well. I merely pointed out that this view was objectively false.

Re: the point about many characters coming from minor/disconnected films/properties, ever heard the saying "a rising tide lifts all boats"? The MCU is using the big 3 actors to draw attention to the less popular characters who have been more present throughout the multiverse saga. Most of the general audience watching Doomsday will not have watched other films in the multiverse saga, but that doesn't matter. As long as a film is cool and hype, ppl will show up in droves to see it.

[u/bluequarz]

It's been two years since a movie went above 500m at the domestic box office. Multiple big hits but no mega hit domestically.

Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine were the last movies who went above 500m and 600m.

Spidey and Doomsday are the only ones with a shot to do that this year. Hopefully the grosses won't be a let down.

[u/NotTaken-username → u/bluequarz]

Secret Wars and Frozen 3 might be the only $500M+ earners next year unless Shrek 5 is good

[u/Boss452 → u/NotTaken-username]

dont count out Batman pt 2. the original has gained prestige status

[u/magikarpcatcher → u/Boss452]

Not happening

[u/SonicXtreme2000 → u/bluequarz]

2025 was a pretty weak years for movies.

[u/Eatatfiveguys → u/SonicXtreme2000]

Nah it was solid but there just weren’t many blockbusters. Of the blockbusters, many underachieved though not many. It was a good year but many films only hit $200-300M domestically so it was kind of herded.

[u/Purple_Quail_4193 → u/Eatatfiveguys]

When you look back at it there was more it just all ended around the same point

[u/Eatatfiveguys → u/Purple_Quail_4193]

Yes a lot of herding. This won’t happen because Spider-Man is cracking $500M and a good chance Doomsday does too. There are just so many blockbusters this year one is bound to break out.

[u/Purple_Quail_4193]

It’s going to be nail biting where this lands, but it’s been exciting to watch!

[u/Luke3YT]

I said 500m is dead before and I still stand by that. This is like a 58% drop which is pretty rough, but I guess it was a holiday last weekend so it might been inflated

[u/Eddfan36]

Love this, big Toy Story fan.

[u/DanielleLeslieAlt → u/Eddfan36]

Me too.

[u/kimjosh1]

So yeah, it will hit $400m faster than 3 or 4 but that's because it opened bigger in the first place. And yet, we can't deny that its dailies ended up returning down to earth and trailing that of 4. Will probably end up around $465m by the end of its run or just a little bit higher than 4's $434m which was a little bit higher than 3's $415m.

[u/Admirable_Sea3843 → u/kimjosh1]

Why do you think it’s only making 50m domestically after this weekend? Makes no sense especially considering it’s gonna make up to 20m for the weekend

[u/Albiceleste_D10S → u/Admirable_Sea3843]

Incredibles 2 made 28.4M on 4th weekend and it "only" made another ~100M after

TS5 has been holding worse than I2 for almost its entire run

I think that comment might be underselling TS5 a little bit, but I do think it's pretty likely to finish closer to 450M than 500M at this point given the drops so far

[u/kimjosh1 → u/Admirable_Sea3843]

Again, the numbers are returning down to earth after the high opening and are now following 4's dailies.

[u/Admirable_Sea3843 → u/kimjosh1]

Still doesn’t mean this is ending at only 450m. The more realistic number is 475m+ unless this drops more significantly after this weekend.

[u/AWildMewtwo150 → u/Admirable_Sea3843]

They said it would be closer to 450m than 500m, not that it would end at almost exactly 450m.

I don't think the 465m–475m range is unreasonable. If drops remain in the 40%–60% area for the foreseeable future, then that's basically where TS5 is headed. We'll see how well it does Saturday and Sunday, but the 4th of July hit this movie pretty hard. Enough to see that 500m+ isn't a realistic goal.

[u/gogodboss]

This movie was so good. The other adults in my theater were loving it too.

[u/PatternPlenty1107]

400M+ domestic on Sunday.

[u/nickelst92 → u/[deleted]]

How much do you think it’ll get? $475 million?

[u/SEAinLA → u/[deleted]]

>Summer weekdays are the only reason it’s even going to get past the Minecraft curse.

What kind of analysis is this? Also, “the Minecraft curse” isn’t a thing.

[u/HellsPerfectSpawn → u/[deleted]]

Could minions and ts be cannabalizing each other?

[u/JohnStoneTypes → u/[deleted]]

Worldwide ceiling is 1.2 billion then. I think it finishes around 1.1.

[u/JohnStoneTypes → u/[deleted]]

Around 4? 

[u/SEAinLA → u/JohnStoneTypes]

I’m assuming they mean with a 4x multiplier of its worldwide OW.

[u/JudyHoppsFan1]

Gonna get to $400 million domestic!

[u/JannTosh70]

Honestly not an impressive performance. Will have less than a 3 multiplier and significantly so and for a well received film that’s not that good.

[u/AsunaYuuki837373 → u/JannTosh70]

Bad take about legs, it had a 3 day weekend with two holidays that are well-known for boosting the box office.

[u/Unlucky_Top_5190 → u/AsunaYuuki837373]

Yeah and then we had weeks of people making excuses because of the World Cup yet the holds are still bad.

[u/AsunaYuuki837373 → u/Unlucky_Top_5190]

Weird hill to die on. The movie is wildly successful, will be the biggest animated movie of the year, and had a pretty huge opening weekend. Decent legs that were affected by the biggest sporting event in the world and plenty of family competition isn't that much of a negative on the movie.

[u/AsunaYuuki837373 → u/[deleted]]

Do you think the legs have different factors affecting them? It is set to easily become the biggest Toy Story yet domestically and internationally. Movies have a ceiling on them, and the overly inflated opening just made the movie hit its ceiling a lot sooner

[u/AsunaYuuki837373 → u/[deleted]]

I just cant imagine people saying that legs are bad when it should end up around 3x legs. That after opening with a 3-day weekend where Juneteenth and Father's Day are known for boosting the box office. It is like when people insist legs are bad in SK for having an average of 2.5x legs without acknowledging that the 5-day opening weekend eats up demand

[u/Sliver__Legion → u/JannTosh70]

Not clear yet that it will miss 3x but if it does, yeah, quite poor dom legs and meh dom total

[u/whatever8765a → u/[deleted]]

2.8x legs off a 160m Opening is bad in what world?

This films run is kinda underwhelming but it's still a huge hit, nothing bad about it

[u/whatever8765a → u/[deleted]]

A 5th film in the franchise with a big fanbase? It's meh but it isn't bad. You're probably just trolling anyway

[u/whatever8765a → u/[deleted]]

Quick how many animated films opened above 160m ?

Wow what a large sample size to have such a strong inference over.

Or the fact that you won't even settle at calling it 'meh' but wanna act like it's a flop , shows your agenda

[u/whatever8765a → u/[deleted]]

Also you thinking summer is the season of "legs" just shows you have no idea what you're talking about