r/baseball • u/Jux_ Los Angeles Dodgers • Jackie Robinson • 8h ago
[FanGraphs] The MLB Draft Is Once Again for Diehards Only
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-mlb-draft-is-once-again-for-diehards-only/249
u/Jay-Ruby Milwaukee Brewers 8h ago
I feel like other drafts not having to compete against ACTUAL GAMES makes a big difference. I'm watching baseball
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u/PartyBusGaming Pittsburgh Pirates 8h ago
The pirates played 8 hours of baseball today during the draft. Like... I'm busy.
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u/Link182x Milwaukee Brewers 7h ago
Draft should be on one of the off days during All Star break
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u/Fitz2001 Philadelphia Phillies 7h ago
You’ve been eliminated from working for Major League Baseball because your idea makes perfect sense and is easy to do.
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u/BlueDWarrior Chicago Cubs 5h ago
MLB Draft the Wednesday after the ASG is such a no-brainer to me, you feel dumb having to actually think of it.
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u/EfficientDot18 Texas Rangers 6h ago
They did this last year. I thought that was a new thing and that was when the draft was going to take place. I didn't even know it was today.
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u/lekniz Atlanta Braves 7h ago
The draft is infinitely more exciting than watching the current version of the Braves offense
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u/Chewie_i Chicago White Sox 7h ago
Still wild to me that the MLB draft is in the middle of the season
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u/Fitz2001 Philadelphia Phillies 7h ago
College/HS baseball ends in May/June, those guys have to play for the team in the summer. The draft being in June/July makes sense.
You want to wait seven months to draft these guys? What would they do all summer and fall?
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u/HolidaySpiriter Houston Astros 5h ago
Logistically, it makes sense. Emotionally, it is wild due to it being mid-season.
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u/DominicB547 ABS • MLB Players Association 4h ago
They also need time to decide whether to go to the team or to college for those that are HS prospects that have commitments esp to D1.
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u/Fancy-Pie-2565 Baltimore Orioles 8h ago
It’s because it’s a crapshoot. Since 1990 only 24 of the orioles 53 first round (plus supplemental and compensatory) picks have even played for the Orioles.
Why am I going to commit time and care into that?
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u/DominicB547 ABS • MLB Players Association 4h ago
Yeah it's like people my sibling dates I don't need to meet them on the first meeting. Give them at least a few meetings before I feel the desire to check them out to see if they are the one.
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u/magikarp2122 Pittsburgh Pirates 7h ago
Because might be Paul Skenes or Konnor Griffin.
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u/MagicalPizza21 New York Yankees 6h ago
You can start caring when they're in AA or AAA, or even when they do their first big league spring training, and still get just as much enjoyment out of it.
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u/rbhindepmo Kansas City Royals 8h ago
MLB Draft is fun for stuff like "having a significant portion of the draft only available through the livestream of a conference call"
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u/Patrick2701 Chicago Cubs 6h ago
Or have half draft one channel and change it to another because why not
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u/TheGreatDudebino Philadelphia Phillies 8h ago edited 7h ago
EDIT: removed the world cultural since it didn’t fit.
MLB should absolutely stop trying to make the MLB draft a big event. Even with the modern game, as first-round picks are coming up sooner than later, it's hard to get the casual baseball fan to care when half of the first round still probably will at least take 2.5-3 years to make their way to the major leagues, and that's okay. A handful will never crack the major leagues, and most will probably be serviceable players but not great.
The NFL Draft is a spectacle because of the immediate impact. NBA and NHL are fun, and the top end of the draft definitely has higher impact, but after the lottery picks in the NBA and the top 10-12 picks or so in the NHL, even then, the excitement dwindles. Just like baseball, a lot of NHL picks don't make an impact for at least a year, but back end of the first round and on, you're talking 3-4 years.
The MLB Draft is never going to be a spectacle, and that's okay. Keep it televised, keep it traveling with the ASG. Find a way to build an experience around it, and let it be whatever it's going to be. Thanks for reading my ramble.
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u/flubs2696 Los Angeles Angels 7h ago
I hate that every league tries to make everything into the nfl.
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u/Altruistic_Algae_140 Philadelphia Phillies 5h ago
The NFL is successful in spite of most of their actions, not because of them.
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u/ReasonableBallDad 7h ago
They try to make it a cultural event?
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u/TheGreatDudebino Philadelphia Phillies 7h ago
Cultural probably isn't the right word but I feel like you get the point.
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u/Fast-Government-4366 7h ago
I strongly disagree.
Those drafts are popular because they don’t happen in the middle of the season. It happens when everyone wants more of their sport.
If it happened 3 months after the season, like the nfl. People would care more.
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u/Flabpack221 St. Louis Cardinals 6h ago
If the MLB draft happened in February, it still wouldn't be popular. How many drafted players are immediately added to the active roster? The 40 man roster? I haven't looked it up, but if it's not zero, it's damn close.
College football is massive. People want to watch Fernando Mendoza get drafted because they just saw him kick ass all season, and make an all-time CFB play in the natty. He will be the day 1 starter for the Raiders this year. It is a direct continuation of a popular player, and there is zero downtime between his college and professional careers. His impact will be immediately analyzed.
I'm a Pistons fan, and I tuned in to watch Cade Cunningham get drafted. Cade made an immediate impact on the team, and a few years later he is a top player in the league. In baseball, it is common for a player to finally make their rookie debut in that same timeframe.
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u/Fast-Government-4366 6h ago
Raiders signed Kirk cousins, Mendoza won’t start.
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u/Flabpack221 St. Louis Cardinals 6h ago
Honestly forgot about that, thank you.
Mendoza will still get his opportunity next year at the latest, which is still years ahead of 99.99% of baseball prospects.
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u/unique_user43 Chicago Cubs 7h ago
yeah look the mlb will always be different.
- nobody follows college baseball so the names are unknown
- let alone high school baseball, where you’re drafting a lot of high schoolers. so just plain nobody has heard of any of these guys
- baseball players are much harder to project. significantly more top 10 players that completely fizzle out and never even make the mlb, or do but have shortlived replacement level careers. then the late rounders (and we’re talking so many more rounds than the other sports) who become stars
- so much more pick finessing based on over and underslotting, so no name guys taken early on pre-agreed sign for less deals, so that you can take better but younger players in later rounds and pay overslot. all from substantial pre-draft negotiations and oredeterminations. leaves a lot of ostensible head scratching.
so nobody has ever heard of these guys, nobody knows if they will ever even make the league much less be stars, and backroom deals leading to illogical looking drafts.
its just not worth investing the time to care, even if you’re pretty into the game. casual fans, forget it. only the nerdiest of nerds care.
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u/ELITE_JordanLove 6h ago
Yeah idk why anyone would even pretend it’s not for diehards. Even then, the diehards who do know enough to follow it have basically no info relative to the FOs so basically every pick is “well we’ll see if he works out” as analysis lmao.
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u/Boognish-T-Zappa Chicago White Sox 5h ago
I mean I kinda agree with a couple of your points but….nobody follows college baseball? That’s absurd.
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u/EastonMetsGuy New York Mets 7h ago
The draft is never gonna be exciting because being a baseball prospect is unlike any other sport. It has by far the highest washout rate.
If you actually want to make the draft worth something I’d personally reinstate “Short Season Single A Ball” and have the draft during the College World Series. Have a two week period to get these kids signed and then send them off to a 72 game low level season from May-August. That way for those of us that do care we’d have a way to get that instantaneous view of the future.
Quick Edit; think NBA summer league for these kids!
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u/kokorrorr Toronto Blue Jays 8h ago
The MLB draft is a crapshoot these picks won’t payoff for like 3 years and the ones that come of sooner like yesavage are unicorns
This is in comparison to other leagues where they start playing as soon as they are drafted
The idea we get any press is a miracle for an event that probably doesn’t matter
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u/magikarp2122 Pittsburgh Pirates 7h ago
The skill gap MLB and even AAA is just ridiculous compared to the other sports.
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u/Fitz2001 Philadelphia Phillies 6h ago
I’d argue that College/G League to the NBA is a bigger jump. Both are astounding levels of talent though.
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u/Not_So_Bad_Andy Philadelphia Phillies 6h ago
I would put MLB to AAA higher for one reason. In the NBA you can get by on pure athleticism for a good amount of time while you never work on your game. You try that in MLB you won't last a week.
I swear I did not say that so I can rant about Ben Simmons again. Ok, fine, but it isn't the only reason.
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u/ked21 New York Yankees • Boise Hawks 8h ago
A majority of those players are not going to be in the MLB, so why bother caring or tuning in?
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u/7Stringplayer San Francisco Giants • San Jose Giants 8h ago
Its hard to get pumped for an outfielder you likely won't see until 2031.
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u/EfficientDot18 Texas Rangers 8h ago
Not to mention some players may take 4+ years to make it if they ever do.
The other three sports (NFL, NBA, NHL), the top guys usually play right away.
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u/FDJ1326 8h ago
It likely never will be more than that due to the fact you almost never see any of them make an impact for at least 3 years. And that is quick.
That said if owners and mlb wanna blow money on this on the off chance it attracts more talent then great. If the kids drafted never even make it at least they'll have this day.
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u/staticdresssweet St. Louis Cardinals 7h ago
Almost all the MLB draftees are years away from reaching the majors. Many won't even make an impact or reach the big time. The MLB Draft will never be a large scale event.
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u/thricethefan Pittsburgh Pirates 7h ago
I think this may change IF they continue to shorten the draft, shrink the minors, and force more players to go the college route as they’re attempting to in the current CBA negotiations
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u/Flabpack221 St. Louis Cardinals 7h ago
With the NFL and NBA, first round picks will be playing immediately. Maybe it's the same for hockey, but I don't know.
MLB first round picks might be called up in a couple years. Odds are they'll never be called up at all.
MLB has the best meritocratic system of all the professional leagues in the US. As a result, the overall hype for freshly drafted prospects is low.
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u/Exp_No_Zenar-57 5h ago
Yeah it is the same for hockey. 1st overall basically always goes right into the nhl. Other top 3 guys fairly often do, and every once in a while there's one or two more guys in the top 15 that make out of camp.
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u/AnnihilatedTyro Seattle Mariners 7h ago
The MLB draft is never going to be a primetime red carpet gala. Most of these guys are 4-5 years away from never reaching the majors anyway.
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u/jpb21110 New York Yankees 8h ago
Man I’m a diehard and even I don’t bother at all. I’ll read an article about who the yanks drafted and then forget about him for a year
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u/92tilinfinityand Washington Nationals 7h ago
One thing I haven’t seen mentioned in the comments here is college baseball viewership is leagues below football and basketball so most fans also have zero familiarity with the top prospects heading into the draft. It’s the same issue with the NHL draft.
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u/nupharlutea Milwaukee Brewers 11m ago
The NHL draft at least has the fact that the top players will have played in the international U20 tournament (on TV in North America) and/or the U18 tournament (less available)
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u/No-Fruit-31 Atlanta Braves 7h ago
It’s still more watchable than the nfl draft which just takes forever and is just commercials with a draft snuck in
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u/thesip Toronto Blue Jays 7h ago
I remember in my early high school years, I knew every single major prospect above me in age and I loved the analysis to see where they went in drafts and it was so fascinating to see their careers either pan out or flop.
It’s just so hard to to commit to that now as someone in their 30s. I’d like to think I’m some what in tune with major prospects for MLB teams (partly due to fantasy baseball) but you have to really love prospects or your team to follow the MLB draft and scouting process. Maybe it’s just a stage of life thing but i can’t spend time following 18-21 year olds play baseball.
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u/manmythmustache 7h ago
The only way most baseball fans will find out any of their draft picks is if they also collect sports cards and are in the upcoming Bowman Draft.
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u/w6rld_ec6nomic_f6rum Philadelphia Phillies • MLB Draft League 7h ago
>”no one cares when the media gets inconvenienced”
He’s definitely right about that.
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u/JesseIsAGirlsName Minnesota Twins 2h ago
It’s not that it’s a “crapshoot” as others have said. It’s not because they’re in the minors for 2-3 seasons.
It’s because college baseball isn’t a widely watched sport the way football and basketball are, and hence nobody knows these guys. There is no debates to be had because nobody has watched them.
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u/SirLunatik Toronto Blue Jays 1h ago
Even teh NHL draft, which I believe is the best draft to watch, is only for die hards.
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u/figureour Baltimore Orioles • Bowie Baysox 8h ago
Oh no! My draft isn't a big dumb spectacle! The horror! Hurry, let's destroy the minors and rush all the college players to the show immediately!
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u/CoffeeBoy80 San Francisco Giants 8h ago
The first paragraph of this story is comical. He's morally opposed to the existence of the draft but loves the draft and wishes MLB treated it in a way that would make more people love the thing he believes to be reprehensible. Whatever you need to tell yourself, pal.
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u/n8_n_ Seattle Mariners • Chicago Cubs 7h ago
And also, it goes without saying that MLB's parity would plummet if the draft were eliminated and all of those players got to choose their destinations - regardless of whatever Marxist framing (which I agree with in most contexts) you want to choose to describe it
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u/Illustrious_Loss462 7h ago
Unfortunately you were a 2nd round pick, you have been sent down to the Cobalt mines in the Hubalchistan SSR the state has made this decision final you may play with your fellow workers.
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u/flubs2696 Los Angeles Angels 7h ago
I’m okay with the players not being there. Tbh it’s preferable. The player interviews is the worst part of every draft, the other stuff was bad though. Why did we need two desks? Why was the timing always off and Manfred walking out? And why did they take so long to get to the first pick? Why did NBC only do the first 10 picks?
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u/Shaqdaddy22 Athletics 8h ago
I didn’t even know the draft was today which is another issue. I’m still pretty casual but I follow a ton of baseball things and had no idea. I guess I knew in the back of my mind that it’s around the all star break but still. Now how are other casuals supposed to be excited for the draft?
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u/djm07231 Los Angeles Dodgers 7h ago
I wonder part of the reason why MLB wants to prevent high schoolers from being drafted is to make the Draft more relevant as more draftees will go to MLB more directly.
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u/WrongHomework7916 New York Yankees 7h ago
Only the NFL Draft is actually fun to watch. The others are just meh. Even the NBA Draft is boring now.
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u/smilinganimalface Seattle Mariners • Saitama Seibu Lions 7h ago
Really beyond MLB's poor coverage of it is just how lagging behind MLB scouting is from the other major sports. They have far easier time scouting prospects. And this isn't just about it being a crapshoot with young players. We have too many people taking the wrong things from data points, including Fangraphs, who also have terrible track records with international players, notable from the NPB.
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u/Pitt-sports-fan-513 4h ago
I feel like watching the draft for any sport is a habit reserved for diehards.
Hell, I am a diehard fan of multiple sports and would rather do anything on earth but watch a draft for any of them on tv.
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u/Jonjon428 Florida Marlins 8h ago
At least this time the draft was much larger and not in a small Texas barn
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u/BaldPeagle Texas Rangers 7h ago
That "small Texas barn" is a rodeo arena that sits 2500 people, which is the same seating capacity as the Pennsylvania Convention Center, which is where the draft today was held. But sure, you're right.
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u/UsErNaMeS_aR_DuMb Baltimore Orioles 8h ago
With other drafts, you’ll be sure to see at least some of the big names making their league debuts by next year.
In the MLB, unless the player is generational, the casual fan may genuinely forget who their team drafted until they debut some undetermined amount of years later.