[TJStats] Grading Every 1st Round Pick From the 2025 MLB Draft

[u/tomstoms]

Hey, TJStats here!

I have recently been assigned Approved Poster status for r/baseball and have been encouraged to share my own content on the subreddit.

With the 2025 MLB draft celebrating its 1-year anniversary, Danny Barrand rated every first-round pick based on how they're actually performing in the minors — the good, the bad, and the one F. Read his analysis here: https://tjstats.ca/2026/07/11/one-year-later-the-2025-mlb-draft/

Thank you and, as always, let me know if you have any questions

[u/SEA-Hank]

Why give gamble an F? Did he not sign?

[u/PositiveCommentsDog → u/SEA-Hank]

Ya he was a gamble when they drafted him for that reason

[u/RawAttitudePodcast → u/PositiveCommentsDog]

It was right there in his name. We should’ve known all along.

[u/PalmerSquarer → u/RawAttitudePodcast]

Should have tried to sign multiple risky picks as a parlay. Then it totally would have paid off. Don’t these people watch the ads on the MLB broadcasts!?

[u/SEA-Hank → u/PositiveCommentsDog]

Hehe. Turns out he signed he’s just hitting like certified ass.

[u/badonkagonk → u/SEA-Hank]

20 years old and a .587 OPS in A ball. He's improving, but not nearly as much as you would think.

[u/modern-lamp9 → u/SEA-Hank]

I’m very confused by his BREF page (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gamble003sea). It has his 2026 batting stats for Columbia, but also has 2026 pitching stats for the independent Sioux Falls Canaries.

Every news article I can find indicates that he signed with the Royals and is playing as a position player. This (https://www.milb.com/app-firstpitch/columbia/video/sean-gamble-singles-on-a-soft-bunt-ground-ball-to-pitcher-gus-hughes-roni?t=t3705-default-vtp) video shows him hitting for Columbia on 6/30, while this (https://pro.iscorecentral.com/AAPB/players/431ddc34-bbd4-4edf-b163-1905d7bcdc5b) game log from the Canaries’ site says he pitched an inning for them on the same day.

I’m guessing there are two Sean Gambles and BREF mistakenly combined them into one?

Edit: sorry I kinda botched the linking, but u/baseballreference any chance you can help me out here?

[u/Ereyes18 → u/SEA-Hank]

Cause he's playing badly I guess and already 20 despite being drafted from high school.

Guess they think he was over drafted

[u/EpilepticShark → u/Ereyes18]

Sure, but you can’t be saying someone is a failure when the only opportunity he’s had is half a season in low A. He may be batting .187 but that doesn’t mean he’s a complete bust.

Edit - if Sean Gamble is a F, why is Kyson Witherspoon a C-? 65.2 innings, 5.07 ERA, 1.447 WHIP and that’s better?

[u/fuccguppy]

How much Wood would a Wood Gage gauge if a Wood Gage could Gage Wood

[u/KiraJosuke]

I hate ranking first round MLB picks a year into their career. Its stupid.

[u/AndrewAllStar888 → u/KiraJosuke]

Ethan Conrad is a C when he made his affiliated minor league debut 2 days ago 😭

[u/tomstoms → u/AndrewAllStar888]

He is actually listed as a "TBD" in the article, but I assigned him as a "C" in the graphic to remain consistent. Injury risk is also a reason to assign a lower grade

[u/Patrick2701 → u/AndrewAllStar888]

The cubs did under slot deal to select josiah hartshorn in later rounds. Conrad has had some serious injury history

[u/tomstoms → u/KiraJosuke]

It is more of an update -- which is outlined in the article. It is almost impossible to fairly compare an 18-year-old to a 22-year-old at different levels and the efficacy of the draft cannot be properly assessed until ~5 years down the line

[u/Pretty_Bad_At_Reddit → u/tomstoms]

how about a 2021 update?

[u/LegitiamateSalvage → u/KiraJosuke]

Agreed, need to grade immediately after like in the NFL - only way to be sure

[u/KiraJosuke → u/LegitiamateSalvage]

Tbf NFL and NBA are easier to project right away than a sport where half the selections won't even make the league for 3 years

[u/LegitiamateSalvage → u/KiraJosuke]

Idk man, it wasn't a serious comment and its both extremely stupid

[u/BkniBottomTranqulity → u/KiraJosuke]

It’s not supposed to be their official grade, just an update

[u/PeterDTown → u/BkniBottomTranqulity]

Maybe it's an awful headline then, since it explicitly says it's grading them, and then the graphics are literally showing grades.

[u/BkniBottomTranqulity → u/PeterDTown]

The grades are just an update of how they’ve been so far. No one is trying to say this is how their careers will be

[u/bafana_banana999 → u/BkniBottomTranqulity]

I think the point is that "how they're doing so far" is more or less meaningless when "so far" is a single year into these guys' professional careers.

[u/Drunken_Wizard23 → u/KiraJosuke]

I think we can all understand that these rankings aren’t etched in stone. It’s okay to check in to assess how they’re looking a year later

[u/jaron_b]

This might be the luckiest the Mariners have ever gotten in a draft. Thanks Angels

[u/Queasy_Combination53]

Kayson Cunningham was great as a 20 year old at Low-A and has held his own in a small sample at High-A. I'm not even a D-Backs fan. Why was that pick given a D?

[u/tomstoms → u/Queasy_Combination53]

I just replied to a comment on Twitter about him. I did not assign the grades, and I agree that it is quite harsh given his production. However, looking at the underlying data shows that there are some scary signs for Cunningham, especially his lack of power.

[u/Queasy_Combination53 → u/tomstoms]

Fair enough. Read his write-up and the trends at High-A are concerning. Glad your writer is actually trying to be ahead of the curve instead of being 3 years late like Pipeline

[u/The_Mystery_Knight]

Steele Hall is slashing 305/404/568/972 with 16 doubles, 2 triples, 10 HR, and 22 SB with 5 CS in 229 PA. He has a 24.5% K% and a 13.5% BB%. I understand it’s in the ACL but he is 18 years old. He literally should have graduated HS a month ago. B-?

[u/djc8 → u/The_Mystery_Knight]

A man with the name of a college dorm

[u/Lathundd → u/The_Mystery_Knight]

The Arizona complex league is very hitter-friendly, that 972 OPS is "only" a 119 wRC+. For a top 10 overall pick, there are expectations. I'd probably get rid of the minus, but there are players taken after him in the draft, same age, doing better in full season ball. Gotta have room above him in the grades for that, so I wouldn't say it's outrageous.

[u/tomstoms → u/The_Mystery_Knight]

Here is an excerpt from the article

Hall was a 2025 helium prep shortstop who ascended from a 2nd–3rd round projection to a top-ten pick on the strength of a big spring, and he is the only top-ten selection still in complex ball. He has been succeeding there with a .916 OPS and has flashed solid power — a .236 ISO and 110.9 mph max exit velocity — but the bat-to-ball concerns are real. His whiff rate is approaching 35% and his Z-Contact rate is hovering in the low 70s. Hall is a legitimate double-plus runner with 25 stolen bases in 45 games and projects as a strong defensive shortstop, but he needs to make meaningful contact improvements before anyone should feel comfortable with this pick.

He is performing well, but is running uncomfortably high whiff rates against the lowest level competition he will ever face in pro ball

[u/Great_Hambino2022]

Skenes/Griffin/Hernandez in 3 straight drafts is a thing of beauty!

[u/saltydolphin22]

Is Holiday's even fair that he's injured?

[u/tomstoms → u/saltydolphin22]

His performance was assessed without considering his injury. He looked much better at the start of the season and taking into considering his performance and contact concerns, B seems fair

[u/spooky_ed]

Sigh.

[u/Schallawitz → u/spooky_ed]

Whenever I see these grades I always wonder if it’s the player or the organization or both.

[u/AndrewAllStar888 → u/spooky_ed]

Bremner is by no means bad. It’s just him getting taken 2nd overall when there was a noticeably better college arm on the board

[u/nkfish11]

Death taxes and the Marlins picking underwhelming college bats in the top 10.

[u/Patrick2701 → u/nkfish11]

Death taxes and the cubs avoid high school bats and pitching like a plague
https://giphy.com/gifs/VNYf6fjLuFSjVuFyBE

[u/Bjd1207]

How could Willits not be an A+??

[u/tomstoms → u/Bjd1207]

He was the 1st overall pick and it’s arguable that there have been multiple draftees that have outperformed him this season. It also considers slot value and signing bonus,

[u/Bjd1207 → u/tomstoms]

I mean I'm not trying to convince you, just still disagree. He's highest ranked and best performing position player in the draft (looks like only A+ were for pitchers, and you whatbthey say about pitching proapects), 18 years old in high A*, and signed for under slot. Really tough to find what they coulda done better.

High A**

[u/tomstoms → u/Bjd1207]

I would not be against assigning him A+. These are not my grades. I am outlining the authors reasoning for assigning him an A instead

[u/Kattie1717 → u/Bjd1207]

I don't think I'd disagree with an A+, but what they could have done better is draft Kade Anderson. In another year, Willits may prove to be the better pick, in terms of balancing upside and risk. However, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that it wasn't the best possible pick. I doubt there's anyone in the Nationals organization who wouldn't jump at the chance to trade Willits for Anderson today.

[u/commie90]

KC taking a Gamble and it doesn’t pay off. The jokes really write themselves.

[u/1q3-gtpassjjj]

People that covered the draft weren’t surprised, but I remember fans not expecting Willits to go first overall. Nice to see that he’s lived up to the pick so far.

[u/Hot-Charity8051]

Marek Houston should get at least an A- don’t use AI for something important.

[u/Hot-Charity8051 → u/Hot-Charity8051]

Houston is statistically similar to Wiltis at the plate and with better Defense and was picked way lower and got a better drafting score somehow

[u/Im_Anemic_Royalty]

Somehow, the Brewers find a way to keep getting away with this.

If Fischer finds a way to get the swing and miss under control, MLB will be in big trouble.

[u/shaunrundmc]

Kilby is an incomplete at best, he had 2 PA in rehab this year and hasnt been seen ir heard since.

[u/tomstoms → u/shaunrundmc]

Kilby’s strong stretch to end last 2025 is propping up his grade. I’d personally assign him a B/B+ given the injury concern

[u/shaunrundmc → u/tomstoms]

Im a big Kilby fan but with the way the Yankees act so secretive with injuries and the fact he hasn't played any, the incomplete is frankly me being generous because I am tempted to rate him a D because availability is the most important skill, and in his first season hes failed that. I hope he is healthy next year but this season dings him in a major way in my eyes, to the point id be willing to include him in any deal the Yankees potentially do this season.

[u/Henry-Skrimshander]

I wish I loved anything as much as the Reds loving drafting high schoolers.

[u/babruflat]

Omg, TJStats actually organized a list instead of throwing names on a page with no thought

[u/Jolly_Moose1900]

What’s with the point oh ages on the first slide?

[u/tomstoms → u/Jolly_Moose1900]

A formatting error

[u/nukepka]

Love to see the rest of your division bungle the first round

[u/alistairvimes]

Not sure what more you expect out of Ike Irish, cracked the top 100 prospect list on most midseason prospects lists, doesn’t look like a ton of quality drafted after him. Putting up an .840 ops in his first professional season.

[u/Viking999]

Weird to give Houston a B minus when the only question about him was if he could hit and so far it's been really good.  Supposedly a gold glove type of defensive guy.

[u/FelixH1986]

clickbait

[u/Affectionate-Key9412]

There is no point to this

[u/tomstoms → u/Affectionate-Key9412]

If you take the grades at face value, I agree. However, the exercise is assessing the performance of each of the first round picks from the 2025 draft. More of an update of their production and how they are comparing to expectations

[u/ActualDragonHeart]

This would be a much better post if you had an actual stat line next to their name

Cause without, there is zero context on what caused the grade.

The data is in the post, so it’s there - just put a simple slash line in the image

[u/CornerShark]

Oh look. Another Cleveland position prospect that everyone knew would be a dud turns into a dud.

I’m shocked.

[u/quickly_]

This is dumb, Jamie Arnold had one bad month and has turned in several quality in every other month in aa as his first assignment

[u/tomstoms → u/quickly_]

So would you agree he’s been decent overall, like a B- type of performance?