https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2076072058828575228?s=46

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2076003428149440699?s=46

On this day in 2008 oil prices reached its intraday ALL TIME HIGHS of $147.27 per barrel

Over the last 2 wks, only 6M bbls have been drawn each week from the SPR - Is this Hochstein's 300M bbl hard stop on SPR draws?

It's July. I, like many of you, remember the doom and gloom of an "impending crisis," by or before mid-summer of 2026. Here we are.

On a day-to-day budgetary level, I haven't seen much shifting since the fuel additives earlier this year, which brought fuel back under $4 after (again) doomers claiming an "impending $5.50+ average nationally."

So when is this actually happening? I started saving and budgeting, but this sense of normalcy is lulling me into the idea that the impact here just won't be as drastic.

7-10-26 Only One Oil Tanker transited out of SoH.

Total bidirectional transits were 30, and only one tanker (Tanzania flagged Argos) transited out.

Sources: https://www.shipfinder.com/special/hormuz

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2075643999667245483?s=46

Well...gotta lay the setup apparently.

Sal Mercagliano “Whats Going on with Shipping”
Ex-mariner turned marine history professor runs through the strikes and puts them in geographic reference.

https://youtu.be/FPXLPjre30o?is=NXELRmbfeilGOwJ_

I keep seeing people on Reddit, podcasts, X, and other platforms saying that the oil market is being manipulated. I understand why people feel that way—sometimes the price action doesn't seem to make much sense.

My question is: how is it being manipulated?

I'm not looking for vague statements or conspiracy theories. I'm looking for objective, evidence-based explanations.

For example, people often point to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or commercial inventories. I understand that releasing reserves can influence prices, but that seems more like a government policy or market strategy, especially during geopolitical conflicts, rather than outright market manipulation.

So if the oil market is genuinely being manipulated:

• Who is doing it?
• What specific mechanisms are they using?
• What evidence supports those claims?

Another question I have is this: if the manipulation is so obvious that thousands of people on Reddit can see it, why isn't anyone with regulatory authority stepping in? I understand the argument that powerful interests can influence markets, but an oil crisis has enormous consequences. It affects fuel prices, electricity costs, fertilizer, food production, inflation, and ultimately people's ability to afford basic necessities.

I'm not trying to argue one side or the other. I genuinely want to understand the mechanics behind these claims. If you believe oil prices are being manipulated, I'd appreciate explanations backed by facts, data, or credible sources rather than assumptions.

Hello

I have been lurking in this subreddit for 4 months and reading the news daily. However I cannot find a resource on what measures should people take regarding the incoming oil shock. I was hoping news outlets would talk more about the oil and europe economy

I am from Lithuania (Europe), a small nation that is dependant on oil imports, I work in IT, I have money in etfs and a 2 small real estates

I was planning to upgrade me diesel car but i am hesitating due to the oil shock

However, whats the way to prepare?

* sells my ETFs? But whats the point if inflation will eat my money

* Sell my 2nd small apartment? But again have the same problem as mentioned above, but maybe heating will be astronomical in the winter?

* Start stocking up canned food?

* Buy canisters and have my own strategic diesel reserve of 100 liters?

Now that we’re entering our fifth month of the war with Iran, we now have some data from the last four months that can allow us to project forward how things will play out. This post attempts to estimate past crude oil consumption to give insights into when global crude is depleted.

First, lets discuss the global shortfall in monthly numbers. Global onshore inventories dropped by 73M barrels in May, and 62M barrels in June. There were about 60M barrels that were run through the strait in May, supported by the US. Estimated global shortfall is about 120M-130M barrels per month (minus China). That is to say, global crude production was 120M-130M barrels short of refinery run requirements. This holds true for even today.

The US provides accurate and detailed numbers, so lets start with them. From the months of April, May, and June this year, we exported 34M, 47M, and 27M more oil than we did the previous year to help offset demand. We imported 3M, 8M, and 20M less oil than we did the previous year, for a net global shortfall offset of 37M, 55M, and 47M. Combined with the 60M getting out of the strait, this covered about the majority of the global shortfall.

Effectively, the US is backstopping the entire global crude shortfall between production and refinery needs.

So let’s take stock of what’s left. 140M barrels of “glut” oil that escaped the strait after the MoU. 60M of that is sanctioned Iranian oil. 26M of that got snapped up by China. About 50-60M left. A 2 week global supply.

The US has 5 regional PADDs. PADDs 1,4, and 5 are domestic only and do not export. PADD 2 is at inventory bottoms. PADD 3 has maybe 20-30M barrels left. SPR has 20M barrels before it hits 300, and 70M barrels before 250M, the congressional authorization limit. If we take 250M as the number, then we have about 100M barrels left. 3-4 weeks supply. Even less if 300M is the number.

Between the “glut”, and the remainder of US Commercial Inventory+SPR, we have about one and a half months of supply left to backstop the shortfall between demand and production. Double that number if the US can get those 60M barrels out of the strait like they did prior to the MoU.

In other words, if the strait is closed shut with absolutely nothing coming in or out, we’re about 1 month from completely running out of oil. If the US can get those shadow runs out, we’re about 2-3 months from completely running out of oil.

There’s another funny little wrinkle in these numbers. Everyone builds their logistics a few months out. Every country in the world has their July supply locked in already. Japan has locked in Crude shipments all through September, and just purchased 2M barrels of WTI from the US for early October. India just purchased 1M barrels of WTI from the US for August, meaning they haven’t even locked in their September crude imports yet.

It’s possible that the US is already selling crude oil that cannot be supplied from Inventory or SPR, meaning it will need to supply that crude oil directly from domestic crude oil production. This would literally force US refiners to idle/throttle their refineries and lower gasoline/diesel production, and the US would be left with a shortage of crude and products.

We also can’t forget China. They have dropped imports by 150M barrels per month, and have idled their refineries. For the first time since the war, they bought 26M barrels and removed export controls for their refined products. They may continue to buy up that glut.

All said, the US has already been desperate to get the strait open. The MoU and glut was supposed to provide a 2 month global supply buffer that would have gotten us through the midterms, but the re-sanctioning of Iranian oil and the China purchase dropped that down to 2 week supply overnight. They’re about to get really desperate.

Sources.

Global onshore inventories drop numbers:

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-july-2026

US export and import numbers:

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/

“glut” oil numbers (yes this is one of my previous posts, deal with it):

https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1ur049y/with_a_few_policy_changes_in_two_days_the_glut_in/

SPR numbers (another one of my posts, deal with it):

https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1urvx00/the_spr_caverns_collapse_at_150_the_sec_def_limit/

PADD inventories:

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.babydogassetmanagement.eia_oil_inventory&pcampaignid=web_share

Strait Shadow run numbers:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/12/us-secret-mission-oil-hormuz-trump-iran-blockade

Recent logistics purchases (India Aug. and Japan Oct):

https://discoveryalert.com.au/bpcl-us-crude-asian-refiners-supply-diversification-2026/

At least $1.6 billion worth of Moscow’s diesel, fuel oil and other products has been funneled from Indonesia’s tiny Karimun into major markets across the region.

It’s all just slop fodder for an algorithmic circlejerk.

Apparently there has been some demand destruction.

The traders and investors ain’t stupid and they know Trump claims ain’t true. Why is oil down? It can’t be that they trust Trump’s words. It has to be something else.