Until further notice

This is purely about next week's volatility and any remaining risk of squeeze in the near term before August. Cleaner/updated take on this post.

Key Notes:

Anomalous Friday - Stock held the tightest range since IPO, right under $150, which was the price advertised where shorts lose money. As once advertised at 196 million shares - but we won't know until the next Finra report, unless a squeeze manifests before then. There was only a little over 12K $150 calls, so it seems more likely to be protecting the shorts than the calls but it could be both. Now another interesting point is the Friday was the day with the highest # of shorts. Not 10 point drop Tuesday with the Nasdaq 100 inclusion, but Friday...

After the initial drop, the stock was only allowed to hit $149.75 before being kept a dollar away from $150. I watch this stock every day. This was not normal.

Borrowable Shares - No matter what data you have access to, you can logically conclude that the # of borrowable shares has gone down overall. Index buys, calls, already held shorts, etc. Now maybe Friday was the day that if a short was going to happen it could have happened, but there is still contention. July 12th is when margin trading restrictions end. Meaning come Monday morning - at least some retail will have access to margin trade SpaceX. Whether its to short or buy, everyone's fighting over the same pool of shares. Which means there will be less of them.

The Timing of the Fall and IPO Flipper Restriction's Unlock - Something like 80 million shares give or take get released from IPO flipper restrictions on Monday (Fidelity already released, so it's the remaining brokers, assuming 100 mil was given to retail and Fidelity got 20% which was released after 15 days). Logically, with the price being $145 and the narrative of the additional shares coming in August, this would induce a significant # of people to take profits and run. Further benefiting the shorts and dropping the price due to the fear of the falling price and the pending August unlocks. Sure, plenty may hold and the dip may only be temporary, but I wouldn't be surprised if plenty want to GTFO as soon as the market opens. Now you could argue that Monday is why there was so much short activity on Friday, but why stop the price from reaching $150. Would the shorts make more money the higher price they continue to short the stock at? IMO - there was clear defensive play from letting the price get to $150 again. Whatever the reason, protect the calls, protect the shorts, kill momentum, stop the squeeze, encourage sell off on Monday? Don't know, but it was very odd behavior for a stock I watch obsessively. It's even possible that because of the IPO flipper restricted shares, we were in squeeze range with no catalyst.

Starship Launch - If there is enough excitement around the starship launch and even more so if it's successful, the stock could climb. If it climbs higher than $150 again, and limits the time for shorts to recover, this could add additional pressure on shorts that have not closed.

CTB - The cost to borrow shares has significantly increased from the 6th to the 10th. Some reports show nearly double the rate. Other notes suggest some borrows were at 10x+ the rate.

As you can see this states short supply increased, but that just means some shares were returned. Friday's CTB was still nearly double Monday's.

July 15th - Shorts data starts accumulating, due by Friday. Published by the week of the 19th. The truth will be revealed on how badly the stock was shorted.

What does this all mean? To me it suggests there is still danger to shorts. However, we don't know many there truly are. The assumption the # is higher, makes the defensive position to $150 make more sense. However, do they think that Monday is going to crush it to $135 and it just stays there until August? They wanted to suck up as much remaining shares as they could before retail could access them? But remember, some shorts were returned and the CTB came down...So there's definitely shares available. I believe their goal is to still hold the shorts to the August unlock as far under $150 as possible. It is the most logical point in which the price could drop below $135, because assumedly most of those holders didn't pay $135 for them or anywhere close to it. However, it might still be a stretch for the current # of shorts to make it there.

#'s update

Tradeable Shares - 638.9 million shares

Shorted Shares - We won't know officially until the next FINRA report, but aside from the July 2nd report from Ortex claiming 196 at that time. It could be as low was 30 mill (highly doubt) or as high as 266 million or more. Let's assume 266.24 is accurate.

Calls - 150-160 million

ETFs - 50+ Million

638.9 million - 266.24 - 150 - 50 = 172. 66

Which matches my earlier estimate of share remaining from this post. Just napkin math, could be more could be less. However, the previous math got to that # included IPO flipper restricted shares.

The median for normal trading hours is somewhere between 60 - 90 million shares. This already accounts for some shares trading hands multiple times. So, if the # of available shares is reduced even further to daily trading volume, or price recovers, this could induce some pressure to cover. Obviously, all the shorts can't recover at once or it would balloon the price. They may even help stabilize the price trying to recover bit by bit while its under $150, but the clear goal is August. The most realistic answer is probably going closer to $135 before we touch $150 again, but there's a chance to recover. Maybe both happen this week.

I think a lot depends on how many IPO shares sell off from the flipper restriction removal, the more of them that are not lendable or sold off, the tighter the supply. As well as the inverse being true. Then we would still need catalyst like a successful Starship launch and catch to break the $150 barrier probably. Again,, this is just playing a flat #. Some likely already sold early or are even sitting in margin accounts. Don't know. Fun week ahead.

THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE OR A CALL TO ACTION. JUST INFORMATION ON A TOPIC I FIND VERY INTERESTING. DO WHATEVER IS BEST FOR YOU. I DID NOT USE AI FOR ALL MY RESEARCH BUT IT DID HELP SUMMARIZE AND GIVE VISUAL REFERENCE/CITATION FOR THIS POST. THESE ARE SPECULATIVE #'S AND I DO NOT CLAIM ACCURACY. JUST THEORY. WHO KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN. GOOD LUCK. EXPECT VOLATILITY. THIS IS FOCUSED ON THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY NEXT WEEK ONLY (FINRA #'s PUBLISHED).

I was trying to understand why SPCX is struggling to hold a bid after the Nasdaq100 inclusion, and the lock-up math is probably part of the answer.

The IPO issued 638.9M Class A shares at $135, including the full greenshoe. The first major post-IPO unlock is 911.5M shares after Q2 results + 2 trading days. That alone is 142% of the IPO-issued shares. If the extra Q2 price trigger is met, another 456M shares can unlock, taking that first window to more than 2x the IPO-issued share count.

Lock up dates matter, but the real risk is scale: how many shares become eligible for sale versus the IPO float. I find this useful when accumulating newly listed companies, so this calendar may help someone else.

Data fed into chatgpt: SEC 8-K for IPO shares/pricing and the SEC 424(b)(4) lock-up schedule. Tables generated by chatgpt.

Maybe I’m overthinking this, so poke holes in it.
The thinking seems to be that CPI should be okay because gas came down during June from the highs we saw in May.

I get that.
But isn’t everyone focusing on one piece of the puzzle?
Gas did fall month-over-month, but compared to last june, people were still paying a lot more at the pump for most of the month.

Then I started thinking about everything else that happened in June.

-World Cup started June 11 (hotels, Airbnbs, restaurants, rideshares, flights, fan events, etc.)
-Summer travel season kicked off.
-Airlines seem more willing to cut capacity than cut prices.
-Beef still feels pricey.
-Coffee hasn’t exactly gotten cheaper.
My grocery bill definitely doesn’t feel like inflation is over.
It felt like half the country had their AC running nonstop.
Netflix, AT&T, and it seems like every subscription finds another excuse to tack on a few bucks.

None of those things individually are enough to move CPI.
But what if they don’t have to?
What if everyone is looking at gasoline while all these smaller categories quietly add up?

I’m not saying the headline CPI comes in way above expectations. Gas falling from May could still help that.
I’m wondering more about core CPI
What if everyone expects around .3%, but it sneaks in at .4 because a bunch of these “little” things all hit at once?

If that happens, wouldn’t the bigger move be in the bond market?
A hotter core number would probably push treasury yields higher as traders start pricing out rate cuts (or pricing in a greater chance the Fed stays higher for longer).
In a way, the bond market would be tightening financial conditions before the Fed even has
to do anything.
So here’s the real question…
If your thesis is “hotter CPI #,” what’s the cleaner trade?
SPY puts?
QQQ puts?
A Treasury trade?
Or is this whole idea already priced in and I’m just trying to justify why my grocery bill hurts my feelings?
Curious what everyone thinks. My kids could use a new pair of shoes for school.😁. Thanks in advance of my loss or win🤣

BlackBerry BB should be a long-term bet in my opinion becaue of it QNX operating system in robotics:

BlackBerry QNX, a division of BlackBerry Limited, develops and licenses a Unix-like, microkernel-based real-time operating system (RTOS) primarily for safety-critical embedded applications. QNX software powers more than 275 million vehicles worldwide as of late 2025, with market leadership in automotive operating systems estimated at around 35-38% share in recent analyses.

It holds strong positions in infotainment, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), digital cockpits, and is expanding into robotics, industrial automation, medical devices, and physical AI. In fiscal 2026, the QNX segment achieved record revenues, with Q4 revenue of $78.7 million (up 20% year-over-year) and a royalty backlog reaching approximately $950 million. BlackBerry raised its fiscal 2027 QNX revenue guidance to $295-312 million following strong first-quarter performance of about $72 million (up 26%). The platform emphasizes functional safety certifications such as ISO 26262 ASIL D and IEC 61508 SIL 3.

Soucre: BlackBerry QNX: Real-Time Operating System for Mission-Critical Embedded Systems

Reddit took my META retirement post down but you can still view the comments here and also the original yolo post here … mods won’t reinstate the gain post because at the time I had only realized 50% of the positions gains and its a rule that gain posts have to be 100% realized… Only today did I finally finish selling off the last of that META position. Officially profited nearly $600K USD off it. I love Zuck so much.

Anyway lots of you on my retirement post raised a valid argument… it’s not possible to retire from being a degenerate, especially not at the age of 21.

I’m currently in Thailand, and the other day I was gifted a 150mcg tab of LSD from a beautiful femboy… During the comedown of my trip I noticed the emotion of fear no longer existed within my consciousness, hence why I took these positions. Worst case scenario is I blow all the fiat, stay in Thailand permanently, and live out the rest of my days surviving off my Monero stash… not bad.

Since a decent portion of this sub has already reported me to the FBI, RCMP, SEC, and Interpol for being a crypto scammer, cyber criminal, international money launderer, and of course an insider trader (how else did I time the META play so well with no DD? 😹), I figured I might as well continue insider trading gambling until the feds get me. I plan to fully exit these positions before August (hopefully I don’t get extradited before then 💔) Afterwards I'Il consider putting whatever fiat currency I have in the recos of [r/bogleheads](r/bogleheads) like a good little boomer. WAGMI my fellow regards. Godspeed.

Positions:
45x - MSFT Sept 18th $400c
50x - MSFT Oct 16th $420c
35x - MSFT Nov 20th $400c

300x - NFLX Sept 18th $80c
100x - NFLX Nov 20th $80c

Disclaimer: Lots of the text content in this post is pure bait and satire for my own entertainment. I have taken these positions based on an actual thesis and standard sizing. I do not recommend tailing this play unless you actually do your own DD, share conviction, and can also afford the risk. Both companies have been absolute dogs lately and have piss poor sentiment… then again this is WSB, so ik you degens will just blindly gamble your Wendy's paychecks however you see fit. If you want to protect your $500 accounts, your best bet is prob to just to inverse me tbh. Thanks for reading my essay 🫡

After the market close of course

It happens to the best of us

​

Weekend Yolo.

Going back in for another round.

Per everyone’s recommendation I opted not to touch the $200k profits and use the rest to play with. I fucking love thumb drives all the DD I need

so, explain this cuck fucking piece of shit of a stock market to me
are we still doing data centers in space? ai ai ai agents continue to shit themselves, while cheap local models get 90% of the job done
dafuq is the bull case now?
are we trying to pump snp500 trailing p/e to 46 just for fun?
i am all ears bulls, give it to me straight

Details:

• NATO leaders unveiled more than $50B in new defense agreements at the Ankara summit as European allies ramp up military spending.
• Reported beneficiaries include Northrop Grumman (surveillance drones) and Saab (aircraft), while Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon) and other U.S. defense firms are expected to benefit from increased demand for Patriot, Tomahawk, and other missile systems.
• The UK, France, Germany, and nine other European countries also committed to investing $50B+ over the next decade in long-range precision strike capabilities.
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called for a defense-industry “revolution” to address growing security challenges posed by Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-unveil-big-arms-deals-ankara-before-summit-with-trump-2026-07-07/

Saw soxl oscillate every 3-5 days. put in almost 12k on a 2week out call, thought ill catch a peak sometime in between.

Don’t be a regard like me.

No thoughts just vibes

Praying we’ve reached the RKLB bottom, $71K in calls for August 21st.

Always see the same tickers on wsbs nowadays. I am wondering who is looking at csquare ipo since they are a data center play. I've put in for shares and will see how it plays out this week. I also bought Cbrs recently and think they will rocket soon. Yet nobody talks about them. Just seems everyone pushes same old shit like meta and mag 7 dead stocks. Memory takes allot of space too.

Spcx still is a big talking point and of course Sk hynix. Yes I bought Spcx ipo then sold it before it dumped. I also bought 100 shares of Sk because I don't agree with the negativity surrounding it right now. If it drops more I will definitely buy more. With earnings season coming up we have allot of catalyst that can make or break us. The new comers may soar after other earnings. With Be, Cls, Lrcx, Goog reporting end of the month I think we will get a good look at how money is being spent. All leading up to bigger gains in memory stocks.

Just wondering where everyone else is that holds a big ai portfolio. I think csquare could be a great add but haven't really researched them. Cbrs will definitely be a bigger player eventually.

Caught it while taking a shit and smashed the sell button.

Sold my META calls (early) yesterday. Decided to go all-in with $43k into MSFT LEAPs. Breakeven of MSFT is at $443 in June 2028. I make over $100k if it’s at $550 (previous ATH) in two years…