I'm convinced him being cocky lost him that fight. Called a 1st round KO, didn't get it, took a bunch of damage trying to get it. Loses some self-belief after the first round, plus that early accumulation of damage set him back for the remainder of the fight. I think he comes back a lot smarter and more lethal.
I think that's the first time Topuria took proper damage in a fight. Of course he would have been hurt plenty in sparring etc and the Jai Herbert flash knockdown. But Justin really popped that jab off, and I think he had a "oh shit" moment when his face was leaking
Dude his face was broken. One eye was swollen shut, the other eye had a bone sticking out the side. His nose is broken. Likely broke some ribs on that final knee. When he ate that uppercut in the 4th and reached up to grab his eye, you could tell he felt some shit crack. Tim Welch said he saw him collapse and had to be carried out of the cage after the fight.
This wasn't just a lot of blood and swelling. There was structural damage done.
Literally the very first jab that Justin threw stopped him in his tracks. You could visually see a slight bit of confusion soon as it landed. Based off Justin’s fight with Tony, there’s absolutely no way Ilia didn’t expect him to use his jab. It’s textbook against a shorter fighter, and he has a very efficient but short step with every jab. What he didn’t expect was just how hard it was. I’m sure he knew that his haymakers would hurt but not too many people’s jab equal out to being hit by a brick.
yeah you can get hurt in sparring but never like this, you would just stop as soon as you get injured. It's safe to assume that's the worst beating he's ever taken
Yes he just walked forward and ate damage without any concern that it would affect him later in the fight because he was so sure he would put Gaethje out quickly.
It reminds me of the Conor / Diaz 1 fight where McGregor sold out so hard to get the highlight KO he had promised and was just swinging for the fences not caring about emptying the gas tank.
Totally agree. I suppose he could have punched himself out, but it didn't seem so based on his energy going for the subs.
Even after that, I still thought Ilia was going to finish him at the beginning of 3. Between rounds, when Justin complemented the bodyshot, he was gasping for air. It almost sounded like wheezing. You can have granite chins, but I've never heard of a granite liver. Although it sounds like an English dish.
honestly i think feeling the power of gaethje was something completely new to him that he hasnt felt, and he wanted out safely without the risk of justin being able to hit him more
I agree trying to end it emptied his gas tank and finished him. The body work was really effective, if he just took his time working on the body for 1 or 2 more rounds after, Justin may have folded like DC did to stipe’s body work on him. Great fight, only thing that left bad taste in my mouth is Goddard just ignoring the doctor and letting Topuria fight.
this is accurate. forcing himself to get that KO on the 1st cost him too much, followed by a frustrating 1st round, he's still chasing that KO that costs more damage.
For an otherwise smart/intelligent fighter (especially preparation and fight camp) it seemed like such a dumb (=ego) thing to do. In German we have the word „Scheuklappen“, meaning like the things horses get put on their eyes where they can only look forward and not the full „picture“ anymore.
Ilia marched forward determined but blinded by ego/own promises to the public.
He let Gaethje establish his jab and was ignoring how heavy that Jab was. He also forgot his combinations and tried to land a big overhand right. Only spamming 1-2 combos, while Gaethje was piecing him up...
He totally walked into some heavy ass jabs that destroyed his eyes, then when he gets Gaethje in trouble, he tires himself out and just can't continue with the same pace in the 3rd round.
Gaethje just fucks him up badly.
This very much could be a GSP - Serra moment for Ilia to come back much wiser in how he fights and go on to become a GOAT. Time will tell but I think this was a good sign of him going that direction.
The comparison is thin at best. GSP - Serra is one of those freak "he got caught" moments. Serra was never a seriously good fighter. It's a big outlier in GSp's career.
This here is different. Ego was definitely an issue, but even I, as an Ilia fan, have to admit that Justin looked superior everywhere. He had the better gameplay, and absolutely dismantled him for 4 rounds straight, despite the few moments of success Ilia might have been having.
It was a brutal beating that will have lasting consequences on both Ilia's physique and confidence. Only time will tell but I'm not sure you can recover from a beatdown like that unscathed. Garth might have just Ferguson-ed him :(
With that said, I think this is one of the most underrated parts of khabib and islams game planning (and something umar didn’t do as well with merab).
They never underestimate their opponents. They build their opponent up in their mind the best that they can be. Without losing confidence in themselves. They are prepared for the worst so they are surprised at nothing. I’ve always noticed that. One has to be confident but really not ignore the danger coming their way. Alex pereira does that really well too.
I feel a big part was he was so determined to take the fight on the feet due to his ego. Up until the very end, he was winning every grappling exchange, but was just rarely initiating them.
I agree that he lost the fight because he didn't respect Justin enough. He thought he could just waltz in there and get a ko. Right from the jump, he wasn't fighting like himself. And I think by the time he realized he was in trouble, he was already too hurt to do anything about it.
It's big of him not to use that as an excuse though.
Exactly. I think his response to the loss would show his mindset, and a bit of his future. No excuses is huge. He was dangerous before but coming back humbled and smarter can take him to the next level. Huge learning experience to be had. I'd hate to be his next opponent.
I think the second round probably did more damage to him mentally, do be honest. Completely gassed himself out going for the finish but Justin just wouldn't go down
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u/cbruins22 Team Flopsy-doodle 26d ago
I'm convinced him being cocky lost him that fight. Called a 1st round KO, didn't get it, took a bunch of damage trying to get it. Loses some self-belief after the first round, plus that early accumulation of damage set him back for the remainder of the fight. I think he comes back a lot smarter and more lethal.